TC Bertha

[gotoman38]

anyone have a radar loop showing the forecast points?

All of these satellite loops have forecast points on them.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
It's not close to any radar stations, so no radar loops.

[brunota2003]

From July 3rd:

The thing that concerns me is that, even if it crosses 20N before 50W, it could still impact the East Coast easily with the right set-up. Anyone remember Isabel in 2003? Granted this time it is not even close to my b-day (Isabel made landfall on my head, literally, on my 13th b-day), but she was at 20.0N while still at 47.3W. The longer the recurve is delayed, the more nail biting we get.

Isabel was "supposed" to follow Fabian North through the weakness that he had left behind as he impacted Bermuda and points northward. She did not. And guess what? She was even a Category 5 for a good span of her life! Granted she formed further west than Bertha did, but I would not be surprised to see Bertha's track similar to hers, in that the models prog it to turn north into a weakness around or a little before Bermuda and it actually ends up traveling further west than most anticipate.

Granted, I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm go Fishing, either. Time will tell.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20039.asp

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good forecast skill Brunota! IMO this may follow a path similar
to Bertha of 96- that is my amateur opinion, ridge pushes
it west, then a trough pulls it towards the mid-atlantic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bert ... _track.png

[lebron23]

is it moving just south of due west????

[hial2]

is it moving just south of due west????

It will bobble many times...

[hurricanefloyd5]

is it moving just south of due west????

I was thinking if thats true then it might have wobbled just abit!!!!!

[cpdaman]

The Isabel analog (for track) is intersting to me simply because that west track (just n of due west) around 23-24 N (between 64-68w) led to the biggest surf i have ever seen in S. Fl (Delray beach) due to the swell lining up with a narrow channel in the bahamas (new providence channel). just something for boaters between boynton and deerfield to be aware of, sorry for getting a bit off topic but i hope this system takes a similiar track (early) then recurves between east coast and bermuda.

[Brent]

Good morning, everyone. I've been on the phone to the office discussing Bertha and a possible threat to our east coast clients. With Bertha so weak, it's likely to miss its opportunity to turn north up the TUTT on Monday. It's possible that the wind shear could kill Bertha, though. I'm not forecasting that, but if I was living in the Carolinas I'd be hoping for such an outcome.

So if Bertha is too weak to be picked up by the TUTT and if it manages to hold together - what's next? There is a cold front/upper trof forecast to reach the East U.S. Coast late next week. Will this trof pick up Bertha and turn it northward before it reaches the coast? Currently, I think there's a better-than-not chance of this happening. But the chances of that aren't too much above 50-50. And if it doesn't get picked up, then what?

Well, with high pressure building to its north and very warm water below it, Bertha could be in a good environment for strengthening and heading right for the Southeast U.S. Coast with an ETA in 8-10 days. That's a long way out, and confidence in the track that far out is low, but if I was living along the East Coast, particularly the Carolinas, I'd start checking my supplies.

Well my interest level just shot up.

[BatzVI]

I know everyone is worried about a US landfall, but how about us in the northern leeward islands?....what is the confidence level that Bertha would most likely miss us to north?...I already went through one Bertha....not looking forward to her return visit.....

[MiamiensisWx]

I know everyone is worried about a US landfall, but how about us in the northern leeward islands?....what is the confidence level that Bertha would most likely miss us to north?...I already went through one Bertha....not looking forward to her return visit.....

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Personally, I'm fairly confident believe Bertha may pass just north of the Leeward Islands and NE Caribbean, based on my personal analysis. However, you and others should remain alert for some breezy conditions and precipitation. I would advise you to still monitor the progress of Bertha.

[BatzVI]

Thanks Miami.....we never mind the extra rain....fill those cisterns...it has been a bit dry here so far this year.....

[ronjon]

Things can change a lot since this storm is at least 7 days away from the US. We all know how things can vary with the models in just a few days - remember just 48 hrs ago the model consensus was recurve out to sea. I wouldn't get too excited now - we'll have a better handle on it in a couple of days. But the 8-10 day 500 mb ensemble charts don't look real promising today. Both the GFS and Euro show rising heights in New England and a solid ridge off along the east coast of the US.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

['CaneFreak]

Things can change a lot since this storm is at least 7 days away from the US. We all know how things can vary with the models in just a few days - remember just 48 hrs ago the model consensus was recurve out to sea. I wouldn't get too excited now - we'll have a better handle on it in a couple of days. But the 8-10 day 500 mb ensemble charts don't look real promising today. Both the GFS and Euro show rising heights in New England and a solid ridge off along the east coast of the US.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Interesting....thanks for sharing...

[Aric Dunn]

bertha is directly north of this buoy ...

i mean just north ..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13008

[djones65]

Miami, yesterday you forecast Bertha to dissipate and stated that cool surface temps would cause it to degenerate into a remnant low. Now you are giving the all clear to the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands???

Remember a couple days ago about you commenting that the members of this board flip flop like a fish on every change and never maintain a consistent opinion? Hmmmmm.... Just an observation.

I personally believe Bertha will recurve eventually... however, due to the fact that there is such a wide spread in models I would not let my guard down if I were in the northern Lesser Antilles or along the East Coast from south Florida north. I base my expectation of a recurve on the fact that although I don't expect Bertha to recurve into the weakness along 55W or so it will gain enough latitude so that when the next shortwave trof approaches the US East coast late next week it will pick it up. Of course as wxman57 said, that trof late next week may not be deep enough to recurve Bertha and therefore it would be a good possibility of making landfall after the trof lifts out and high pressure reasserts itself.

['CaneFreak]

bertha is directly north of this buoy ...

i mean just north ..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13008

With 10 to 15 knot winds at the surface, what does that tell you Aric? The wind field is definitely not symmetric....however that could change later....

[Aric Dunn]

bertha is directly north of this buoy ...

i mean just north ..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13008

With 10 to 15 knot winds at the surface, what does that tell you Aric? The wind field is definitely not symmetric....however that could change later....

no not at all .. your forgetting that you have to subtract out the forward motion on the south side.. \
and well yeah ok not symmetric of course because all the convection is on the north side, but it is just a minimal tropical storm ..

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is there going to be a recon flight next week sometime to fly into bertha????????

[MiamiensisWx]

Miami, yesterday you forecast Bertha to dissipate and stated that cool surface temps would cause it to degenerate into a remnant low. Now you are giving the all clear to the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands???

Remember a couple days ago about you commenting that the members of this board flip flop like a fish on every change and never maintain a consistent opinion? Hmmmmm.... Just an observation.

I personally believe Bertha will recurve eventually... however, due to the fact that there is such a wide spread in models I would not let my guard down if I were in the northern Lesser Antilles or along the East Coast from south Florida north. I base my expectation of a recurve on the fact that although I don't expect Bertha to recurve into the weakness along 55W or so it will gain enough latitude so that when the next shortwave trof approaches the US East coast late next week it will pick it up. Of course as wxman57 said, that trof late next week may not be deep enough to recurve Bertha and therefore it would be a good possibility of making landfall after the trof lifts out and high pressure reasserts itself.

I stated that Bertha would have dissipated over water because of shear and the stable thermodynamic environment. I did NOT rely on lower SSTs/SSTA. Additionally, I'm not entirely signaling the "all clear" for the NE Caribbean; residents in that area should absolutely monitor Bertha, though I personally believe it may pass very close and just north of the Leeward Islands. You are correct that I have changed my views, but those changes have been founded by my observations of new data.

[cycloneye]

bertha is directly north of this buoy ...

i mean just north ..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13008

With 10 to 15 knot winds at the surface, what does that tell you Aric? The wind field is definitely not symmetric....however that could change later....

no not at all .. your forgetting that you have to subtract out the forward motion on the south side.. \
and well yeah ok not symmetric of course because all the convection is on the north side, but it is just a minimal tropical storm ..

And also the south side always is more weaker than the north side.