ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Bocadude85]

May take awhile... but convection should continue to build tonight.

[funster]

That water vapor loop clearly shows a center.

Yes, I think so too.

[Emmett_Brown]

In my experience of watching waves like this, i think the next dmax burst will probably be the one that closes off a center. I remember many waves in the past several years that took many days in this part of the ocean to get going... this whole pattern is very familiar.

Overall, if we look at the past couple of days, each day the disturbance has gotten a little better organized before the convection has died off... so my guess is one more day, and it will probably be categorized.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow...I havn't looked at a satellite loop recently and now it looks like Derek may have been spot on all along...for now at least. It isn't looking very healthy at all at this time.

maybe 92L is heading down the

[hurricanefloyd5]

I see the center under the clouds and some convection!!!!!!!!!!

[KWT]

Cloud tops are still warming at the moment bar right over prehaps the center where moderate convection is trying to pop. We need to see tihs expanding if this is going to continue to develop.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't want to jinx it. But how many times have the models over jumped on a wave to have it go poof or turn into a open wave. Don't get your hopes up too much. The MJO hasn't even entered the Atlantic fully. If the models are right and the shear relaxes. Then maybe will see some development. I think the NHC jumped the gun a little by giving 92L a red code. Maybe I'll eat crow. But that's what I see right now.

[abajan]

I see the center under the clouds and some convection!!!!!!!!!!

AMEN, Brother! A true believer!
Seriously though, I think that as long as convection redevelops tonight, it has a good chance of being upgraded to TD and eventually TS.

[caribepr]

Being away for a few hours (cableing up my cart due to potential windage) and catching up, I'm sitting here laughing. Yes, no, will , won't, right, wrong. Frame on!
All I'm worried about (well, beside everything I *own* being blown away while I'm gone for a month) is - will I be able to get on the puddle jumper on Thursday to San Juan? And then I read a post from someone in Orlando getting all worried...which is one place I'll be in Florida for awhile.
I swear, if this punks out over us here and comes to Orlando and I have to get my kid's place storm ready, I am entitled to a BIG party when I get back! Or at least a comfy bed in the mental ward.

[Mecklenburg]

we have been observing this thing for days now, and the conditions seem favorable, how come it hasn't develop yet? what's hindering it?

[fasterdisaster]

we have been observing this thing for days now, and the conditions seem favorable, how come it hasn't develop yet? what's hindering it?

It's been 2 days and it's steadily improving. People always say 'it will develop by 5 pm' or whatever and 99% of the time they're wrong. Be patient.

[Shockwave]

we have been observing this thing for days now, and the conditions seem favorable, how come it hasn't develop yet? what's hindering it?

I've been thinking the same thing. But I guess we will have to be more patient. Does a slower development make it more of a U.S. landfall threat more then a Atlantic "fish"?

[KWT]

The thing is conditions haven't been totally faovrable, sometimes we've been lacking convergence and storms have died off (guess thats what probably happening now...) whilst at other times shear has been hampering it from developing.

[deltadog03]

Still looks messy, but I see a system that is trying to actually come together. I guess, I am trying to say its not so strung out. (or as much)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am expecting slow development. Remember, conditions out there
are not favorable for rapid formation, but allow with heat content
and okay shear some slow formation. It may take a few more
cycles of bursting before it becomes a depression. From there,
the models give a scary prediction for the Bahamas South Florida.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 122346
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ANOTHER BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

In vulcanology terms, 92L is dormant but it could erupt in the next 24 to 48 hours. Tremors (convective bursts) should be expected in the general area.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Really needs some decent convective bursts to expand, its not going to develop much further if it just keeps convection like presently.

[Brent]

It needs some serious help.