ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HurricaneBelle]

Of course if it's length and breadth of warnings that one finds interesting, note that Hurricane Donna in 1960 saw the entire eastern U.S. Coast (Florida to Maine) under a Hurricane Warning at one time or another.

Floyd came closest with warnings from Florida City, Florida to Plymouth, Mass. However, Donna's verified while Floyd's didn't.

[amanda]

Actually, TS Warnings/Watches were not issued for the entire Florida coastline; the region from Anna Maria Island to Aripeka (in the general vicinity of Tampa Bay) did not receive them.

Secondly, a single TC does not influence the outcome for a particular region during the rest of the season. The 1950 analogy is false, in my view.

Thirdly, Fay produced EXTREMELY prodigious precipitation across east-central Florida. There were confirmed totals in excess of +20 inches near Melbourne. If the data is confirmed, according to this sourced list, Fay will likely join the top ten "wettest" tropical cyclones to affect Florida.

Finally, the Tampa Bay shield (and the "overdue" concept) is a dangerous MYTH. No region is "protected", and the probabilities of a TC strike remain unaltered every season.

This is such a good point. I've heard this before, that Tampa Bay "doesn't get" hurricanes - which is baloney. In terms of sheer number of storms, obviously S. FL and NC are going to get the lion's share, simply due to their location. But we all know the cliche "it only takes one." Sooner or later, Tampa Bay is going to get hammered.

And I can't even begin to imagine what this place would look like if it got as much rain as Melbourne is getting.

You mentioned the 1950 analogy - do these so-called analogies hold up? Because in order to be the slightest bit comparable to a current system, the entire atmospheric set-up would have to be the same, wouldn't it?

Also, you said the area north of Anna Maria Island to Aripeka wasn't under TS watches/warnings. Actually, hurricane watches were briefly put up from Anna Maria all the way north to Tarpon Springs.

i, in no way, meant that tampa is somehow immune to hurricanes. i was actually commenting in amazement that tampa has been so lucky in recent years. yes, sooner or later, tampa bay WILL get hammered which is why people say tampa is overdue. the "luck" will run out.

[sfwx]

Actually, TS Warnings/Watches were not issued for the entire Florida coastline; the region from Anna Maria Island to Aripeka (in the general vicinity of Tampa Bay) did not receive them.

Secondly, a single TC does not influence the outcome for a particular region during the rest of the season. The 1950 analogy is false, in my view.

Thirdly, Fay produced EXTREMELY prodigious precipitation across east-central Florida. There were confirmed totals in excess of +20 inches near Melbourne. If the data is confirmed, according to this sourced list, Fay will likely join the top ten "wettest" tropical cyclones to affect Florida.

Finally, the Tampa Bay shield (and the "overdue" concept) is a dangerous MYTH. No region is "protected", and the probabilities of a TC strike remain unaltered every season.

Here is a link that shows Hurricane landfall statistics. Scroll down to USA and check Tampa out.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/cities.htm

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Her west quad looks terrible. I think Fay is gonna start acting like a real TC now and start weakening. If she doesn't start moving soon, she could be a TD before emerging over the GOM again.

NOT and official forecast.

[paintplaye]

I almost thought that there was a NW movement but now see it is still stationary... GOSH! haha.

[SimplyHavingFun]

"Also, you said the area north of Anna Maria Island to Aripeka wasn't under TS watches/warnings. Actually, hurricane watches were briefly put up from Anna Maria all the way north to Tarpon Springs."

I live north of Tarpon Springs and south of Aripeka and we have not been in ANY watches or warnings, maybe the only area of any coast in Florida that has not been in a warning or watch zone. Sure hope is stays that way!!

[amanda]

"Also, you said the area north of Anna Maria Island to Aripeka wasn't under TS watches/warnings. Actually, hurricane watches were briefly put up from Anna Maria all the way north to Tarpon Springs."

I live north of Tarpon Springs and south of Aripeka and we have not been in ANY watches or warnings, maybe the only area of any coast in Florida that has not been in a warning or watch zone. Sure hope is stays that way!!

maybe there is some truth to the darth vader theory.. we just had the wrong location.

[LaBreeze]

Anyone in here from Neptune Beach? Just wondering because I have family there and was wondering how things were there without calling to wake them up.

[weatherSnoop]

Geez, I said I don't buy into the shield...I have 5 hurricane boxes and a plan for each category. Just glad my plans get stalled soon after initiation.

[yzerfan]

I think Aripeka is on the breakpoint list because the NHC likes to put breakpoints on county or state lines (or river mouths) since it makes it easier for county EOCs and emergency planners that way, and according to google, Aripeka marks the boundary between Pasco and Hernando counties.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Geez, I said I don't buy into the shield...I have 5 hurricane boxes and a plan for each category. Just glad my plans get stalled soon after initiation.

Yeah, we have enough stuff in our hurricane kit that it takes up two FULL closets!! If we ever move, we may be able to open up our own mini-mall!!!

[Steve]

Great. NHC guidance suggests (and discussion actually states) that Fay stalls out again in 72 hours.

We were talking about that on the model thread off and on earlier in this week. A couple of globals had a setup where another high came down from Canada a little farther west than the one that is building in to Fay's north now. A random model they ran on Channel 4 showed a solution where a high comes out of the southern rockies to set up the next block to keep Fay in southern latitudes wherever she would be at that point (AR/MS/AL/TN/GA/??) as a remnant low. That scenario might depend on how far west Fay eventually gets and whether or not the next trough is strong enough to give her an out. Looks like whatever happens, it's not going to happen quickly. /understatement

Steve

[sfwx]

does anybody know the longest period of time that a named storm has existed? maybe fay will break that record when it's all said and done. you all should know that i am in no way hoping for that though. i'm ready to shift to invest 94, but fay just won't go away!

http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-records.php

[AJC3]

Finally, the Tampa Bay shield (and the "overdue" concept) is a dangerous MYTH. No region is "protected", and the probabilities of a TC strike remain unaltered every season.

Bump...[/quote]

So very true. Anyone who buys into that myth needs to take a look at plates 1-12 in (the late) John Williams' and Iver Duedall's book Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

[SouthFLTropics]

Just for comparison sake...Check out this article from Irene in 1999. The description of Irene sounds very much like Fay. What this shows though is that even though forecasting is not perfect, it has gotten better since 1999. With Irene no warnings were posted at all. With Fay, even though it was disorganized like Irene, they were able to get a better handle with it.

SFT

[AJC3]

Just for comparison sake...Check out this article from Irene in 1999. The description of Irene sounds very much like Fay. What this shows though is that even though forecasting is not perfect, it has gotten better since 1999. With Irene no warnings were posted at all. With Fay, even though it was disorganized like Irene, they were able to get a better handle with it.

SFT

WRT With Irene no warnings were posted at all, that's not entirely true. TS warnings were in place for south FL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999irene.html

[jdray]

FirstCoastNews Meteorologist Tim Deegan is stating a relocation and movement to the NW.

Says new center forming around Palatka or just north of it.


That is his call with the use of two doppler radars.

[paintplaye]

FirstCoastNews Meteorologist Tim Deegan is stating a relocation and movement to the NW.

Says new center forming around Palatka or just north of it.


That is his call with the use of two doppler radars.

I think he is being confused with that area of no rain that is circulation around the center.

[CrazyC83]

"Also, you said the area north of Anna Maria Island to Aripeka wasn't under TS watches/warnings. Actually, hurricane watches were briefly put up from Anna Maria all the way north to Tarpon Springs."

I live north of Tarpon Springs and south of Aripeka and we have not been in ANY watches or warnings, maybe the only area of any coast in Florida that has not been in a warning or watch zone. Sure hope is stays that way!!

Don't be giving Fay ideas! She might just turn SW at some point for you!

[Steve]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Could be another trick on radar, but it sure looks like there is some westward progression based on NOAA/NWS radar out of Jacksonville.

Steve