ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[jwayne]

gfs: stalled off central la at 150.

[HouTXmetro]

I thought the last GFS over by Mobile? This looks like Central/SW LA.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFDL was....This is GFS.

[Wx_Warrior]

156 (notice 95L????)

[Innotech]

this looks like Lili redux

[jwayne]

gfs: seems to be drifting west at 162hr

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS keeps Goosy weak

[HurricaneRobert]

this looks like Lili redux

Which is why people should stop using the K-word.

[Wx_Warrior]

174....drifting south???

[KWT]

Yep I've said all along this reminds me of Lili...however this time we may not get so lucky as we did with Lili...

GFS once again has a rather interesting track, its been all over the shop recently.

[HouTXmetro]

Remember we bashed the GFS yesterday when it showed a weak storm. As a matter of fact Gustav was on the brink of becoming a Depression earlier. Still one of my more trusted models. But it has been ALL over the place.

[Innotech]

Lili pretty much bisected Lafayette. Put a tornado down in the middle of downtown and tore up a bank building. My family pretty much booked it to Natchitoches the day before and we stayed in a campground. I doubt we would stick around if gustav decided to visit.

[Wx_Warrior]

South of Brownsville next weekend....

This is all about timing guys...

[vaffie]

It's starting to remind me of Fay. Similar setup--weakness in the ridge--models constantly overkill the weakness, first sending it out to sea, then into east Florida, then into west Florida, then north through Florida, all the while the high is so strong it blocks Fay and sends it on westward eventually to western Louisiana! It was first the GFS which saw the turnaround with Fay going back west over Florida, then the others caught on gradually. The situation may be similar again. I mean it's only a week later. The ridge may not break down like all these models keep saying, like with Fay, it might even strengthen, sending Gussy to the west at the end again. All this stuff makes me a bit nervous.

[yzerfan]

I was driving to campus this morning , gas was 3.45, left this afternoon and it went to 3.70!

AFAIK, Florida is still technically under a state of emergency because of Fay. So the anti-price gouging laws are still in effect, and that station could find themselves dealing with a state investigation if someone called them in.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL stays almost the same in the track from the 12z.

WHXX04 KWBC 272336
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.9 74.1 300./ 2.9
6 18.8 74.6 260./ 5.2
12 18.5 75.4 252./ 7.4
18 18.6 75.9 274./ 5.4
24 18.5 76.5 258./ 5.7
30 18.5 77.3 277./ 7.2
36 18.7 77.9 280./ 6.2
42 19.0 78.8 290./ 8.7
48 19.4 79.7 294./ 9.0
54 20.0 80.5 306./10.5
60 20.7 81.4 309./10.5
66 21.6 82.4 312./13.3
72 22.6 83.4 314./13.8
78 23.6 84.4 316./13.7
84 24.6 85.3 315./12.5
90 25.7 86.3 319./14.5
96 26.9 87.2 322./13.7
102 28.0 87.9 327./13.1
108 29.3 88.8 326./14.8
114 30.6 89.6 330./14.9
120 32.0 90.3 333./15.0
126 33.2 90.6 345./12.6

[Sabanic]

That would be awful for our area. Sliding in just to our west. Can you say Frederic ??

[deltadog03]

GFDL is showing some WSW movement in there too....hmmmmm

[Ivanhater]

HWRF the same as last run as well

[Sjones]

Do you have the most recent HWRF model you can post?