Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[gatorcane]

GFDL and HWRF passing just East of the Florida East Coast. They have shifted right a bit over the past 12 hours or so but too close for comfort for SE Florida and bad news for the Bahamas (Central and North)

Both models forecast RI once past the Greater Antilles and certainly that is a possibility so we need to closely monitor this situation. RI is not out of the question given the excellent conditions both models think 92L will have.

[ronjon]

Major shift west from the BAM suite of models at 12Z into SW FL.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL and HWRF passing just East of the Florida East Coast. They have shifted right a bit over the past 12 hours or so but too close for comfort for SE Florida and bad news for the Bahamas (Central and North)

Both models forecast RI once past the Greater Antilles and certainly that is a possibility so we need to closely monitor this situation.

They have not shifted East...You were not up last night I guess Gator..LOL Almost missed the Bahamas last night..

[KWT]

Yep ronjon the statistic models are much further west but then again the global models are about the same, if anything shifting a little more to the right and I know what I'd trust!

Also yep some of the models are indeed showing RI occuring, I think the models maybe a little too well defined at the start so may take longer for it to undertake that strengthening but it probably should strengthen on its track once clear of the islands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The good news about those BAM runs is that they only give this system about a day or day and a half between the time it moves off Cuba and then moves into S. Florida. If this is correct, then the chances of the storm ever getting above a minimal hurricane seems slim. There just simply wouldn't be enough time.

[SWFLA_CANE]

If it were to follow the BAM it would not be much of a storm by the time it reached SW FLA due to the land interaction. It would not have much time over water.

[O Town]

[Sabanic]

We may see more shifts to the west as the day goes on. JMHO

[ronjon]

I think we might be seeing the first hints of a future forecast track taking shape this morning - with the exception of the HWRF, nearly all the models are starting to bend the path from a turn toward the north to N-NW. The latest GFDL even starts to bend to the NW at the end of its run. The recent swing of the BAM suite at 12Z may be the first sign of the models responding to a strengthening ridge. Wxman57 said earlier that he thought we may see a swing toward the west in the models. Of course, this could just be the oscillation back and forth from run-to-run so we'll see.

[Ivanhater]

Look at those models bending back west...

[gatorcane]

yeah and that would not be good for the SE and E coast of Florida...imagine a NNW movement off of NE Cuba into the Bahamas and then a slow bend west. That would give this thing even more time over water. Let's hope those do not verify and that it was just one run and not a trend

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, If the gfdl and hwrf are correct, which I am beginning to believe they are due to the fact that their last several runs were identical to each other, 92 will likely not spend much time over the dr, with a wnw motion ensuing later today. Those runs are scaring me.

[gatorcane]

I just one to take a moment to point out I am enjoying everybody's comments and inputs on model analysis and the system. thanks for making storm2k a great place to chat with other weather enthusiasts!

[tolakram]

Well, If the gfdl and hwrf are correct, which I am beginning to believe they are due to the fact that their last several runs were identical to each other, 92 will likely not spend much time over the dr, with a wnw motion ensuing later today. Those runs are scaring me.

I'm not seeing this. The models that initialized east of PR all have this going north of PR and it did not. The low is now west of PR and without a sharp turn / jog to the northwest I don't see how this thing stays over water. I want to see the models initialize over the current center (I use that term loosely ) before I think we can tell how much of a hit or miss this will be.

[Cyclone1]

4 models makes makes this thing turn sharply to the west in the Bahamas. That's pretty interesting for 4 models to be showing...

[txwatcher91]

Look at those models bending back west...

The ones bending west are the unreliable ones like LBAR, NOGAPS, etc. That is also the less reliable 06Z model run, wait for the 12Z and see what they show. If they still show that then this is a trend to watch.

[gatorcane]

Hey look at what GFS is seeing.....major bend west at the end as others have mentioned and maybe a GOM issue. I don't want to use the K word but similar to a Katrina track at least across FL

[ronjon]

Look at those models bending back west...

IH, you need the updated version that shows the 12Z BAMs - its up on the SFWMD site.

[Ed Mahmoud]

4 models makes makes this thing turn sharply to the west in the Bahamas. That's pretty interesting for 4 models to be showing...

BAM models get their data from the GFS, therefore, the BAM models should show a similar track to what the GFS shows, for the strength the GFS predicts.

[KWT]

Of course should be noted the 0z run of the GFS had it in the gulf, the 06z run I believe has it taking a much more northerly track, making landfall in Georgia.