Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, If the gfdl and hwrf are correct, which I am beginning to believe they are due to the fact that their last several runs were identical to each other, 92 will likely not spend much time over the dr, with a wnw motion ensuing later today. Those runs are scaring me.

I'm not seeing this. The models that initialized east of PR all have this going north of PR and it did not. The low is now west of PR and without a sharp turn / jog to the northwest I don't see how this thing stays over water. I want to see the models initialize over the current center (I use that term loosely ) before I think we can tell how much of a hit or miss this will be.

They initialized east of PR because their initialization time (6z) occurred at 1am this morning, and at 1am the center was on the NE side of Puerto Rico.

[Johnny]

Ditto, I'll announce time and place, and wear old torn briefs pulled up in a wedgy, and run around if public, if current 92L, as a closed low, ever landfalls West of 93ºW.

LOL!! I'm gonna hold you to that ED!

I guess the GFS run hitting Houston was bogus, right? I can't find that anywhere.

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to see a bothering trend with this system. The 00z GFS strengthened the ridge and turns 92L back to the west and the further west 92L delays in developing I believe this system becomes a south Florida over to the GOM problem and appears 92l rounds the ridge and heads for the NE Gulf Coast.

[GreenSky]

Starting to see a bothering trend with this system. The 00z GFS strengthened the ridge and turns 92L back to the west and the further west 92L delays in developing I believe this system becomes a south Florida over to the GOM problem and appears 92l rounds the ridge and heads for the NE Gulf Coast.

Trend, what trend? This is just typical east west east model fluctuations.

According to KWT, "Of course should be noted the 0z run of the GFS had it in the gulf, the 06z run I believe has it taking a much more northerly track, making landfall in Georgia."

So the latest GFS has shifted back east of Florida...and from what I hear on these boards from people like KWT, looks more and more like a Carolina threat.

[MiamiensisWx]

Trend, what trend? This is just typical east west east model fluctuations.

According to KWT, "Of course should be noted the 0z run of the GFS had it in the gulf, the 06z run I believe has it taking a much more northerly track, making landfall in Georgia."

So the latest GFS has shifted back east of Florida...and from what I hear on these boards from people like KWT, looks more and more like a Carolina threat.

Why have you been continually dismissing the threat to Florida? Do you attempt to "offset" Florida biases/-removed-? I'm curious...

Personally, I have always disagreed with the "major hurricane" forecasts for 92L, but do you have an agenda?

You can send a PM response to avoid OT diversion...

[txwatcher91]

Starting to see a bothering trend with this system. The 00z GFS strengthened the ridge and turns 92L back to the west and the further west 92L delays in developing I believe this system becomes a south Florida over to the GOM problem and appears 92l rounds the ridge and heads for the NE Gulf Coast.

but the Euro did not, and the Euro is what I would trust for synoptics, and it shows a weakness in the ridge and the 06Z GFS shows a landfall in Georgia. Right now the models have been going everywhere, but I am sticking with the Euro as it has been most consistent with a more northerly track which seems reasonable given this "summer" pattern has been more like "winter" with stronger troughs and weaker HP systems.

[Blown Away]

All these models may be meaningless if DR dissipates 92L.

[HURAKAN]

All these models may be meaningless if DR dissipates 92L.

If there's a LLC, it will dissipate over Hispaniola. But the wave won't dissipate. I think 92L is more resilient that you're giving it credit for!!!

[txwatcher91]

Not -removed- here, but why hasn't anyone besides me mentioned the Euro on here? The euro has been very consistent for the most part and is the model I would trust 4-7 days out as it has done fairly well this year. Just because it doesn't show a FL or GOM track doesn't mean it should be ignored.

[MiamiensisWx]

Not -removed- here, but why hasn't anyone besides me mentioned the Euro on here? The euro has been very consistent for the most part and is the model I would trust 4-7 days out as it has done fairly well this year. Just because it doesn't show a FL or GOM track doesn't mean it should be ignored.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102520

Personally, I agree with Dave's assessment... however, there are numerous uncertainties as well.

[GreenSky]

Trend, what trend? This is just typical east west east model fluctuations.

According to KWT, "Of course should be noted the 0z run of the GFS had it in the gulf, the 06z run I believe has it taking a much more northerly track, making landfall in Georgia."

So the latest GFS has shifted back east of Florida...and from what I hear on these boards from people like KWT, looks more and more like a Carolina threat.

Why have you been continually dismissing the threat to Florida? Do you attempt to "offset" Florida biases/-removed-? I'm curious...

Personally, I have always disagreed with the "major hurricane" forecasts for 92L, but do you have an agenda?

No, I believe 92L will hit Florida...just observing what others are predicting and the latest models

You can't deny it, the 6Z GFS has shifted east now to Georgia and the other reliable models such as EURO, GFDL, AND HWRF are also predicting a turn to the north EAST of Florida...so I can't argue with that either and am just saying that the Florida threat may be diminishing more, especially given 92L's movement westward through the DR and its possible demise.

The unreliable models such as BAM's, LBAR, CMC, etc. are predicting a possible SE Florida landfall, but I don't take those seriously.

[Stormcenter]

Starting to see a bothering trend with this system. The 00z GFS strengthened the ridge and turns 92L back to the west and the further west 92L delays in developing I believe this system becomes a south Florida over to the GOM problem and appears 92l rounds the ridge and heads for the NE Gulf Coast.

I'm not sure what you are seeing but I don't see a trend. The eastern coast of Florida upward still looks the like the areas of concern if this ever gets it's act together.

[dixiebreeze]

We may see more shifts to the west as the day goes on. JMHO

I agree. Can't even imagine a hard north turn for 92 before reaching Florida.

[tolakram]

No, I believe 92L will hit Florida...just observing what others are predicting and the latest models

Well that's a problem. If you believe something will happen you will give more credence to data that supports that belief. I think the best that can be said at this point is

1. We don't know how strong 92L will be after passing over the islands
2. Not knowing the strength and knowing steering currents will be very weak there is no reliable way to predict where 92L will end up.

[txwatcher91]

Not -removed- here, but why hasn't anyone besides me mentioned the Euro on here? The euro has been very consistent for the most part and is the model I would trust 4-7 days out as it has done fairly well this year. Just because it doesn't show a FL or GOM track doesn't mean it should be ignored.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102520

Personally, I agree with Dave's assessment... however, there are numerous uncertainties as well.

Well, I will agree that if it stays weak in the Bahama region it will possibly head into the GOM, the with all of the warm water, favorable environment, and an UL anticyclone, I see no reason it shouldn't intensify pretty quickly over that area.

[Stormcenter]

We may see more shifts to the west as the day goes on. JMHO

I agree. Can't even imagine a hard north turn for 92 before reaching Florida.

It's happen many times before with much stronger systems. The good thing is this is still (for now at least) just a open wave and not anything more.

[KWT]

The thing is the longer it remains without a well defined center the longer it should track westward, as some pro mets have said Cuba may also get in the way if it doesn't lift out soon enough and if that happens odds for it reaching the gulf increase in a big way.

[crazycajuncane]

The big question now is when will this storm be upgraded? I don't like to get caught up in the guessing game this early. I think everyone should be watching this system, but it's not even a depression yet. I see a lot of hype at the moment. The models are interesting, but until there is a depression it's a wait and see game.

[txwatcher91]

Here is what the HPC thinks, interesting for sure.

[Ivanhater]

Each hour going by, the GOM threat is increasing..it's going to take longer to get together...I am 90 percent sure the models will shift to the GOM in the next couple days



Already making that shift west, now most over South Florida..watch for it to continue, I wouldnt be surprised to see most fo the models showing SW Florida tonight