ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

that storm is already in the decline

a quick collapse of a large area of convection, as we saw this afternoon, is often marks the death of tropical cyclones. That type of collapse usually brings about strong downdrafts, which leads to strong surface divergence, causing the low to open into a wave. That may very well have happened here

Not trying to disagree as you may be right, but the real-time satellite IR shows the convection expanding over the storm, right over the supposed MLC, which could cause an LLC to form if it continues to expand and deepen.

No, it's not expanding, it's spreading out because it's dying.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html

That's the most recent loop, even ahead of the 'real time' page.

Here's the latest pic.



The red is rapidly fading.

[ConvergenceZone]

You haven't been paying much attention to the models have you?

The models haven't impressed me at all lately. In fact they've done just the opposite...
They can forecast development all they want, but until it actually comes to fruition, I'm just not gonnna believe it...

[Vortex]

00Z NAM

strengthening especially towards the end of the run..Also a due west to wsw motion towards the end with the bahamas in sight and a pattern that would make for a southern florida/keys potential landfall or the FL straits.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow...I'm a bit baffled tonight and I'm not sure which way to go. It's tough to go against Derek because I respect his opinion on the board so much but at the same time the structure appearance of the system looks so good to my untrained eye. I think this could go either way and right now I'm on the fence with it. If it continues to pop convection around the MLC I think it could still be a player. On the other hand if it dies down and we are looking at a naked swirl tomorrow then I would think that Bones will be warming up to deliver that fateful message to Captain Kirk...I think it definitely has a pulse right now but it is gasping for air...The waiting continues...

[Mecklenburg]

You haven't been paying much attention to the models have you?

The models haven't impressed me at all lately. In fact they've done just the opposite...
They can forecast development all they want, but until it actually comes to fruition, I'm just not gonnna believe it...

i agree, all they've come up so far are phantom canes...

[blp]

What does this system need to do to get some decent convergence. Seems like that has been the story with systems in that part of the Atlantic this year. It is going to be hard to sustain any deep convection with this setup.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8conv.GIF

I get the feeling that once we get the dmax to kick in, this will start to get going because the ull giving the harsh conditions is moving away. Since its moving away and conditions become more favorable, existing convection may last longer, perhaps long enough to develop a llc. From then on convergence would increase, and tc can get going. Unfortunately, I dont see that for at least another 24-48 hours.

Problem is that the timing is critical for it now because we will loose that MLC and the structure it has built up. We could be back to square one in a few hours.

[txwatcher91]

that storm is already in the decline

a quick collapse of a large area of convection, as we saw this afternoon, is often marks the death of tropical cyclones. That type of collapse usually brings about strong downdrafts, which leads to strong surface divergence, causing the low to open into a wave. That may very well have happened here

Not trying to disagree as you may be right, but the real-time satellite IR shows the convection expanding over the storm, right over the supposed MLC, which could cause an LLC to form if it continues to expand and deepen.

No, it's not expanding, it's spreading out because it's dying.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-jsl.html

That's the most recent loop, even ahead of the 'real time' page.

Here's the latest pic.



The red is rapidly fading.

Yes, the red has faded some, but the bright white in that loop is expanding. I have 02:30 data and it looks promising IMO.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes... thanks to several of the professional meteorologists, met students, and informed amateurs for the contributions!!! It's heartily appreciated!!!

[lonelymike]

Wow...I'm a bit baffled tonight and I'm not sure which way to go. It's tough to go against Derek because I respect his opinion on the board so much but at the same time the structure appearance of the system looks so good to my untrained eye. I think this could go either way and right now I'm on the fence with it. If it continues to pop convection around the MLC I think it could still be a player. On the other hand if it dies down and we are looking at a naked swirl tomorrow then I would think that Bones will be warming up to deliver that fateful message to Captain Kirk...I think it definitely has a pulse right now but it is gasping for air...The waiting continues...

Bones just sawed up the fat lady

[Mecklenburg]

so far the atlantic hasn't been really friendly... i wonder what less can we expect for the remainder of the season

[Sihara]

I'll add another sincere "thank you" to the pro mets and the experts here.

[ConvergenceZone]

Regarding development, I realize it's only August, but you aren't always going to have these good lookin waves coming off of Africa like we've had this month either...We don't even know if we will get good looking waves like this once September rolls around...and before you jump down my throat saying that I'm calling "season cancel", not saying that at all, just saying that with the large amount of good looking waves that had emerged lately after Bertha, I expected at least one to form... Some of the folks on here hit the nail on the head this past weekend when they were noticing the models predicting the train of development. They called it "just a fantasy" and perhaps they were correct afterall.... Don't really want to see any Gulf or Carib storms as you'll putting life at risk there, but would be nice to see some Cat 4 or Cat 5 Recurve Fish scenerios..Just like I enjoying watching a flower blossom, so do I enjoy watching the unfoldment of a strong majestic oceanbound hurricane....
Although I will admit, perhaps it's good that 92L isn't developing because the chance of a completely recurve seems minimal at best....

[tolakram]

so far the atlantic hasn't been really friendly... i wonder what less can we expect for the remainder of the season

You need to think about what you're saying. We've already had 5 storms, including 1 major hurricane, and we are NOT in the peak of the season yet. Most waves do not develop, what's happening out there is perfectly normal ... above normal frankly.

[RL3AO]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

I agree, 92L or 93L might be our only chance to have anything in the Atlantic in August(nothing else out there)....then it's on to September.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQCU36pkH7c

[ConvergenceZone]

Bones just sawed up the fat lady

I'm starting to jump on the Derek bandwagon
While I don't want to call it dead yet, I have a feeling if the convection once again fails tonight and tomorrow it looks worse than today, then I'll put a nail in it, but only if it looks worse tomorrow than it does today....

[Bocadude85]

Does anyone remember how many times dolly was written off before she finally developed

[hurricanefloyd5]

Does anyone remember how many times dolly was written off before she finally developed

Thank You I am glad someone agrees with me!!!! I was just thinking the same thing!!!!!!111

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

If I post the first picture at one time and the second at another, you will say, I has weakened. But it's in fact the curvature of the Earth and the angle at which the satellite is looking at the system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

you are right, if these 2 won't develop, then i knew it was too good to be true... we'll just wait and see

Well, about too good to be true.


92L may not develop tonight or tomorrow, but until it opens completely back up, it bears watching, and, 93L looks like it is getting past the worst of the stable strato-cu it has been ingesting, SSTs slowly increase to its West, and it is firing up convection near the apparent center.

So, for fans of storms menacing land and people, cheer up, I suppose.