Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)

[HURAKAN]

Third time is a charm! Back to TC status.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 525
WTIO30 FMEE 091821 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/09 AT 1800 UTC :
18.6S / 39.2E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 110
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 20.0S/39.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 21.4S/39.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 22.8S/40.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.0S/40.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 24.7S/39.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.0S/39.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
NNNN

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing 120KTS as the listed maximum wind (which is a category 4) and 130 kilometers per hour (which is a category 1). Which was it?

I'll go by pressure at 960 minimum.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 39.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 39.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.9S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.1S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.0S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 39.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S HAS TRACKED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. WARM WATER AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM
HAS ALLOWED FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS CUTOFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND WILL LOITER IN THE
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TC 22S
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER TO THIS LOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTERACTION OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS WILL BEGIN AFTER TAU 24 AS
THE TRACK OF TC 22S SLOWS AND TURNS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW TC
22S TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24. INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE TC AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY LEAD TO AN
EVENTUAL MERGER OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WHICH SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN
THE TC. HOWEVER, THIS MERGER WILL PROBABLY NOT BE COMPLETE UNTIL
AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
REMAIN CLOSE TO THEIR RESPECTIVE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL
CONSENSUSES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KAMBA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

09/1900 UTC 19.1S 39.4E T5.0/5.0 JOKWE -- South Indian Ocean

Coming back!

[HURAKAN]

The eye is coming back!

[Cyclenall]

It might have a large eye this time too.

[HURAKAN]

Eye trying to get into shape.

[HURAKAN]

90kts-956mb

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 100033

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)

2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 0000 UTC :
19.7S / 39.4E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 110
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 21.0S/39.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 22.2S/40.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 23.5S/40.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.4S/40.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 24.8S/39.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.0S/39.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0-

THE SYSTEM SHOWS NOW AN EYE PATTERN ON THE IR IMAGERY, CONFIRMING THE
PATTERN SHOWED BEFORE ON THE MICROWAVE 1549Z (F13) AND 1702Z (F16).
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS,
TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. BY TAU 24 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION.

[HURAKAN]

TPXS11 PGTW 100045

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 19.5S

D. 39.4E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (09/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. A DG EYE TEMP SURROUNDED BY A
LG RING WITH A BF OF 0.5 YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES.
MET IS 6.0. DBO DT/PT.

GEIS

[G.B.]

[Meso]

Looking like it's heading towards the South African border,I'm actually going up country in 11 days.Maybe I'll be able to catch some of it's remnants inland (if it decides to make landfall)

[G.B.]

ZCZC 103
WTIO30 FMEE 100636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 0600 UTC :
20.3S / 39.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 110
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 21.9S/39.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 23.4S/40.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.4S/40.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.1S/39.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.6S/38.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.4S/37.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
4.0 AND CI=4.5-
THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. THE EYE IS NOT CLOSED
ON
MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SEE SSMI 0421Z) AND IT IS EMBEDDED ON EIR AND
VOSIBLE
IMAGERY DURING THE 3 LAST HOURS.
THE SYSTEM SHOWS NOW AN EYE PATTERN ON THE IR IMAGERY, CONFIRMING THE
PATTERN SHOWED BEFORE ON THE MICROWAVE 1549Z (F13) AND 1702Z (F16).
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS,
TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. BY TAU 24 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE
REBUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2008 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 20:30:39 S Lon : 39:35:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 957.5mb/ 87.4kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.1mb

Center Temp : -57.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.3C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

Weird shape and eye!!!

[HURAKAN]

Eight killed as cyclone Jokwe lashes Mozambique
Mon 10 Mar 2008, 8:50 GMT

MAPUTO (Reuters) - Tropical cyclone Jokwe battered parts of Mozambique for a third day on Monday, killing at least eight people and destroying thousands of homes in the northern Nampula province, Radio Mozambique reported.

The state-controlled national broadcaster said four districts were being lashed by heavy downpours and strong winds of up to 200 kph (125 miles per hour).

Thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes and the cyclone has destroyed almost 20,000 homes, wrecked electricity pylons and uprooted trees.

Emergency officials said the cyclone was moving to the country's southern regions and they expected the death toll to increase.

Paulo Zucula, director of Mozambique's National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) said Cyclone Jokwe was more dangerous than Cyclone Favio which struck Mozambique last year and killed 10 people.

"The situation is terrible right now with dangerous winds of 200 kph travelling to the southern parts of Mozambique," the told Reuters.

Zucula said more floods could be expected as the cyclone is heading inland to areas in central Zambezia province already battered by floods earlier this year.

Tens of thousands of people in Mozambique were forced to flee their homes earlier this year in what the United Nations said could be the worst floods in memory, engulfing farmland and wrecking roads and bridges.

Last month Cyclone Ivan smashed Madagascar, killing more than 80 people and leaving over 200,000 homeless, but lost steam before striking Mozambique.

[Chacor]

Up to 75 kts now and expected to reach Intense Tropical Cyclone status again before weakening.

WTIO21 FMEE 101227
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 10/03/2008 A 1200 UTC.
NUMERO: 024/12 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS D'OURAGAN
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 10/03/2008 A 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 12 (JOKWE) 960 HPA
POSITION: 21.2S / 39.8E
(VINGT ET UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1200 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT
LOCALEMENT JUSQUE 230 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.

OURAGAN 65/75 KT ET MER ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN PRES DU CENTRE
TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
COUP DE VENT 35/45KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE
S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 110 MN DANS LES DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET EST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 11/03/2008 A 00 UTC:
22.7S / 40.1E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE.
A 24H POUR LE 11/03/2008 A 12 UTC:
24.0S / 40.2E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
JOKWE S'EST A NOUVEAU LEGEREMENT INTENSIFIE AU COURS DES DERNIERS HEURES.
IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE GENERALEMENT ORIENTEE AU SUD.