ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[cpdaman]

heck of a discussion copied above, well done!

looking at orion's weather page you can see coastal location winds are veering from ENE to NNE in a few spots which may be a sign that a new center is taking shape further offshore.

This would obviously be very bullish for development should the new center be over the GS.

another exciting day ahead, stay safe and informed.

[HURAKAN]

[hiflyer]

It does appear that the broad center at 31.2/80.9 may have some competition spinning up at about 31.05/80.8....interesting...little more sunshine/heating just might help resolve this.

[Weatherfreak14]

you can see it better in this view http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes its SE of Hilton Head and has a eyewall like feature on it moving slowly NW right now.

[KWT]

Yeah I can see what looks like a center further east as well, or at least a new circulation forming whilst the older one to the west is showing hints of starting to open up again.

not sure I'd call it an eyewall mind you!

[storms in NC]

I don't see a NW movement on there. I do see a very slow movement to the North. If it does reform out more from the coast it will more likely stay just off shore of the coast. It would be nice to have it come inland to give us badly needed rain.

[hiflyer]

Don't see any tops above about 20k as of now right in the middle...higher east. Airliners in the area are running at 38k over the top....lower onshore.....the choochoo train of ac running further offshore from SoFla to Wilmington NC and points north are also up a little higher and looks like more and more are opting for onshore routings...10 mins longer but less weather. No pilot reports of turb either onshore or offshore as yet.....and none forecasted as yet either....but 96 is in a well traveled corridor...if the rides start to deteriorate it could be a indicator.

[HURAKAN]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 171815.GIF

If anything, this loop shows the circulation near the coast being pulled towards the convection.

[KWT]

The thing is hiflyer one of the discussion posted earlier said that the center we've been seeing on the radar isn't actually a true center. just an eddy that has drifted westwards over the last 18hrs or so, the real center is still developing much much closer to that deep convection you were talking about. Still right now its still got a little bit to go but if it does redevelop further east then it should have enough time to do something IMO.

I think the little eddy is getting dragged back eastwards as new circulaion tries to form further east.

[storms in NC]

Not to many interested in this one.

[jasons2k]

Looking at the radar loop, the center is definitely east of where it was earlier this morhing. The center is moving into the convection (and over the Gulf Stream). I'd keep an eye on this for sure.

[KWT]

Yeah Jason I wonder why though its moving eastwards, as I said I wonder if there is something forming further west which is opening up that circulation and dragging it back eastwards?

storms in NC, i haven't got a clue this is the biggest threat to the USA at least for the next 48-72hrs I'd have thought.

[cpdaman]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

the west wall of the gull stream located east of the sabsoon chain would be somewhere around 31/31.5 N and 79.8/79.7 longitude

this is where you should look in the Ramdis loop above for the new LLC. (per Noaa area discussion linked earlier on thread)

[storms in NC]

Yeah Jason I wonder why though its moving eastwards, as I said I wonder if there is something forming further west which is opening up that circulation and dragging it back eastwards?

storms in NC, i haven't got a clue this is the biggest threat to the USA at least for the next 48-72hrs I'd have thought.

I know there are a few more out there. But this one being so close you would think there would be more people on here.

But anyways This is going to be a little tricky for it's path. It would be nice if we got a lot of rain out of this. It would help alot of the farmers. I need to go and look at the satellites and a few more things to see what I think it is going to do.

[KWT]

Convection is really expanding on that eastern side and that circulation does seem to be drifting towards that convection. If the two can link up then this will surely become a tropical cyclone.

[Bane]

Not to many interested in this one.

it isn't a threat to texas or florida. what did you expect? i just wanted to add that 94L could be a threat so they're paying much more attention to it.

[Normandy]

Yea this looks to become either Christobal or Dolly, depends on which Invest the NHC classifies first.

[tolakram]

[storms in NC]

If you look at this floater you can see it is growing in size.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

[storms in NC]

Not to many interested in this one.

it isn't a threat to texas or florida. what did you expect? i just wanted to add that 94L could be a threat so they're paying much more attention to it.

SSSSHHHHHHH I was trying to be nice here. But true LOL