ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[xironman]

Those bursts are north and west of the system. If you look at the visible the low clouds show it to be a little bit below 15N.

[KWT]

Yep its just as resistant as Bertha was i see. i think get this to aobut 40 and we will see this start to show signs of strengthening even if shear does increase a touch. Lets see how far WSW it goes...

Also i do think this will be our next depression as well...

[HURAKAN]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's a system to watch and so far has been pretty resilient. Not sure how many days it will take but I think this has the opportunity to become TD #5. Like many have already said, the farther west it goes, climatologically speaking, the less the chance for a fish. We are entering the most active period of tropical cyclone activity and everything must be watched.

[cycloneye]

Agree 100% Sandy with your brief analysis.I posted the ship forecast and in 48 hours,the system will reach the 26c threshold ssts.As you said,its almost late July and all has to be watched as we enter the peak of the season.

[hial2]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's a system to watch and so far has been pretty resilient. Not sure how many days it will take but I think this has the opportunity to become TD #5. Like many have already said, the farther west it goes, climatologically speaking, the less the chance for a fish. We are entering the most active period of tropical cyclone activity and everything must be watched.

Hurakan, though I agree with your thought, is July historically an active month? I though the most active part of the season is from August 15 to September 15 or so...

[gatorcane]

Hial2, Sandy indicated that "we are approaching the most active period." In other words we are not quite there yet but getting very close. August through October are the really busy months with Sept 10 being the peak.

[hial2]

:uarrow:

Hial2, Sandy indicated that "we are approaching the most active period." In other words we are not quite there yet but getting very close. August through October are the really busy months with Sept 10 being the peak.

Thank you Gator...I read somewhere that "the season" is now longer than it used to be so I wasn't sure if the active parameters had changed..

[Jason_B]

After jumping on and off and back on and off the 94L bandwagon and then watching it become a hurricane and hit south Texas today I'm no longer writing anything off until every cloud of it is gone. So yeah 97L needs to be watched.

[KWT]

I think its certainly the case that this season is ramping up earlier then normal given we've had a strong Ts, a cat-2 and a major hurricane already this month I feel its quite possible to get another storm this July.

I don't think this will do anything just yet though given its still bursting convection here and there whilst being in SST's that are pretty low does suggest that once it gets to warmer waters it should start to get going.

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe the warmer SST's near Africa will cause these systems to develop early and we will have Fish the rest of the season.

[Sanibel]

Is this another "everything that spins forms" year?

[Cryomaniac]

Is this another "everything that spins forms" year?

Looking like it so far.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 232344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DOLLY...CENTERED INLAND ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.

A LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

Still hanging on.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH REMAINS
ELONGATED IN THE MID/LOW LEVELS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON
THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A LARGE AMPLITUDE
MOISTURE SURGE IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITHIN 350 NM WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 16N32W.

[fasterdisaster]

To put it bluntly, it looks like crap right now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thank you Gator...I read somewhere that "the season" is now longer than it used to be so I wasn't sure if the active parameters had changed..

We're merely detecting and naming more early and late season TCs, especially because of new satellite improvements, subtropical classifications, core analysis, QuikSCAT, etc. Historical seasons may have been quite similar to recent years, but several TCs were not included in the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT). The early and late season activity we have seen may be incorrectly regarded as "abnormal" because they were not incorporated into HURDAT during older seasons.

[cycloneye]

97L has been deactivated

BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al972008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807240019
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2008, DB, O, 2008072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972008
AL, 97, 2008072112, , BEST, 0, 155N, 154W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072200, , BEST, 0, 160N, 178W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072206, , BEST, 0, 162N, 189W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072212, , BEST, 0, 164N, 202W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 97, 2008072218, , BEST, 0, 164N, 218W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 97, 2008072300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 240W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 260W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072312, , BEST, 0, 156N, 280W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 302W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 25, 0,

[cheezyWXguy]

97L has been deactivated

BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al972008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807240019
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2008, DB, O, 2008072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972008
AL, 97, 2008072112, , BEST, 0, 155N, 154W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072200, , BEST, 0, 160N, 178W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072206, , BEST, 0, 162N, 189W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072212, , BEST, 0, 164N, 202W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 97, 2008072218, , BEST, 0, 164N, 218W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 97, 2008072300, , BEST, 0, 158N, 240W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 260W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072312, , BEST, 0, 156N, 280W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2008072318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 302W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 25, 0,

still needs to be watched if it continues to move south.

[CrazyC83]

I think its certainly the case that this season is ramping up earlier then normal given we've had a strong Ts, a cat-2 and a major hurricane already this month I feel its quite possible to get another storm this July.

I don't think this will do anything just yet though given its still bursting convection here and there whilst being in SST's that are pretty low does suggest that once it gets to warmer waters it should start to get going.

That's still a drop in the bucket compared to July 2005 when we had a strong Cat 4 and a Cat 5 (plus two other solid systems).