ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure there is a TD yet. I do not see a well-defined center on satellite and recon so far is not that impressive

Probably will need a pressure of 1003-1000mb before this becomes a TD

[wxman57]

I'm not sure there is a TD yet. I do not see a well-defined center on satellite and recon so far is not that impressive

Probably will need a pressure of 1003-1000mb before this becomes a TD

Question is - would the NHC downgrade a depression to a remnant low if it looked like this with convection over the center and 20-30 kt winds around it? Surface obs show a well-defined low center. And it is increasing in organization. I can't see the NHC not calling this Seventeen in the next few hours.

[caribepr]

Islands are head's up...again.

[gatorcane]

There is about 0 shear over 93L at the moment, maybe some light SW shear but virtually none. A large anticyclone continues to build right on top of 93L as shown by the symmetric "fanning" of the high cloud tops around the center.

It shows November can produce some nasty systems:

[cycloneye]

Islands are head's up...again.

But hopefully not another leftie for us.However,Haiti may have another threat this 2008 season.

[wxman57]

Model guidance now says "Seventeen" vs. "Invest".

[Blown Away]

So what happens to 93L if it misses the trough coming down this weekend?

[cycloneye]

We have TD 17:

invest_RENUMBER_al932008_al172008.ren

[CrazyC83]

Will it be a 4 pm rushed advisory or a special advisory around 5 pm?

[cycloneye]

AL, 17, 2008110518, , BEST, 0, 137N, 816W, 25, 1004, TD,

[wxman57]

So what happens to 93L if it misses the trough coming down this weekend?

This thread gets a lot longer.

[gatorcane]

TD 17 is borne, check out NHC's website, let's start an advisory thread.

[Sanibel]

Convection symmetry suggests strengthening.

[gatorcane]

Looks like NHC is respecting the models that want to stall/slow TD 17:

5:00PM EST Discussion snippet:

E.G. MITCH OR WILMA...AND THE MODELS CAN
BE TOO QUICK TO EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. WE'RE
GOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT BEHIND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances this could pull a Lenny and go backwards?

[Blown Away]

So what happens to 93L if it misses the trough coming down this weekend?

This thread gets a lot longer.

Thanks, I needed a good afternoon laugh!!

[lbvbl]

So what happens to 93L if it misses the trough coming down this weekend?

what are the chances of this?

[Derek Ortt]

this has a betetr chance of a lenny track than affecting Florida

I cannot see the trough missing it. The models that have this missing the trough have the cyclone as a trough

[caribepr]

Just curious why a few sites have both 17 and 93L? I've never seen that before (now I know what you meant about the vs. part, 57)