ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[HouTXmetro]

A major City (NOLA, Houston) could be targeted.

[Stormcenter]

So there is still a good possibility of Gus coming this way? Looks to me that there is a decided trend to the west. Still think there could be some flip flopping of the models?

I'm sure the models will swing back, they always do.

Wishful thinking?

[Stormcenter]

A major City (NOLA, Houston) could be targeted.

Or somewhere in between.

[KWT]

Well the models do seem to be generlaly pointing between either New Orelans and Houston it seems, meanwhile Td8 aims towards Miami...what are the odds!

[sphelps8681]

I live in Lumberton, Tx near Beaumont. We will be leaving on Friday to go to Toledo Bend lake. If it hits Tx/LA border we will head N. to Lake Fork. That's where we ended up when Rita hit. I hope we will miss those evacuations. When is expected land fall?

[Sabanic]

Well the models do seem to be generlaly pointing between either New Orelans and Houston it seems, meanwhile Td8 aims towards Miami...what are the odds!

True, but yesterday they didn't so I will go along the line of thinking that where Gus ends up is far from decided upon, and will keep a very watchful eye on him for the duration. GFDL is still, I believe, very close to the homefront here, and it has remained persistant throughout so far with Gus. A skim of New Orleans with a path similar to Katrina, or to the NNE/NE still puts a storm right to our west. Never a good spot to be in.

[KWT]

Sabanic, well yep your right we need to watch this one very closely indeed the models still have a reasonable amount of spread as they still don't have a good idea on the strength of the ridge it seems, the general evolution is nailed in but the details is causing varying landfall sites.

[dwg71]

also the foward speed will have a huge say in it, the slower it goes the more east it will end up. right now seems to be crawling. i still think east of nola

[HouTXmetro]

also the foward speed will have a huge say in it, the slower it goes the more east it will end up. right now seems to be crawling. i still think east of nola

Not exactly, as I understand slower could also means the Plains High will have time to build in forcing Gustave more West.

[gboudx]

I live in Lumberton, Tx near Beaumont. We will be leaving on Friday to go to Toledo Bend lake. If it hits Tx/LA border we will head N. to Lake Fork. That's where we ended up when Rita hit. I hope we will miss those evacuations. When is expected land fall?

Since you are leaving on Friday, I would just keep paying attention today. As for expected landfall? Right now, who knows? The forecasted path has been as dynamic as this storm.

[dwg71]

0z gfdl seem to predict this sw movement, but it them moves it north or just over jamaica. i think this model has best handle on him. let it play out. I think east of nola.

[KWT]

The UKMO did show the WSW motion as well I recall as did previous ECM runs thought it wouldn't have been this far south without the relocation.

Think the GFDL is not bad either but think its a little quick to lift the system out to the WNW. Mind you the ECM agrees as well so we will haave to see.

[Pearl River]

06z GFDL....Mobile Bay

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/main.php?pageloc=viewtext&textdir=tropical/atlantic/model&filter=WHXX04_KWBC&label=GFDL+Model

[KWT]

Yep right nit othe mobile bay and Mobile goes right through the core on this run.

A bit further east from the previous run I guess, looks like the models still haven't settled on an exact track.

[dwg71]

gfdl moves east.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Don't look now, but this may not have Tx in it's sights yet. Models continue to be in two camps.

My gut still tells me somewhere on the LA coast.

[perk]

gfdl moves east.

Yeah but when you read the recent NHC disco they are'nt buying the GFDL solution anymore. At least that's how i read it.

[lonelymike]

GFDL run is already off. Is too far north. Garbage run. But it does narrow the area from Mobile to Tx/La border for a hit I think.

[dwg71]

GFDL run is already off. Is too far north. Garbage run. But it does narrow the area from Mobile to Tx/La border for a hit I think.

its spot on, not sure what you are seeing.

[Javlin]

gfdl moves east.

Yeah but when you read the recent NHC disco they are'nt buying the GFDL solution anymore. At least that's how i read it.

Which disco is that?