ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Frank2]

P.S. Depending on what the recon find, the NHC may (may) need to issue a special advisory this afternoon...

[ColdFusion]

seems to be pretty much a NW movement now (no longer WNW):

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

how long was the loop you looked at to determine this motion?

At LEAST 3 frames.

[hurricanefloyd5]

we all Saw an eye like feature on Fay, but Never heard of a TD having an EYE LIKW FEATURE unless it's clos to become or at Hurricane status now!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

gatotcane,please calm down about posting movements every 10 minutes and using the emoctions.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

if they bring out phil ferro tomorrow morning we are in trouble, he was terrible during fay

Not only terrible, but plain wrong and providing incorrect information! Too bad our old weatherman had all those *ahem* problems....

I'm really hoping this first track follows ye olde tradition of "if your in the bullseye on the first forecast than its gonna miss you".

[ConvergenceZone]

too many people have discussed the prospects of this moving out to sea. Isn't that a possibility if it goes east of Florida into the weakness??

[Sanibel]

Afraid we'll lose the "direct to hurricane" speculation if that eye doesn't improve before the hurrucane hunter gets there.

Turn it off for a few hours and come back to see where it goes.

[ColdFusion]

too many people have discussed the prospects of this moving out to sea. Isn't that a possibility if it goes east of Florida into the weakness??

I do not think any scenarios have been ruled out.

[wxman57]

What's your track, Derek? You buy the NHC forecast?

[x-y-no]

What's your track, Derek? You buy the NHC forecast?

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102745

[DESTRUCTION5]

What's your track, Derek? You buy the NHC forecast?

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102745

[Frank2]

If it strengthens quickly, then more a northerly motion is more possible (towards the weakness east of FL), per the systems hard right in the past few hours...

[Stormcenter]

so basically over cuba for 3 days, that would take care of that i would think

I would think so if that pans out but we all know it probably won't.

[twister]

I hope it will go poleward. Looks impressive on visable. Recon scheduled for 2:00 EST.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
441 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...


THU-SUN...RIDGING BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE
WASHING OUT ON FRI...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN A
GENERAL TROUGH-LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CELLS WILL BE FOUND EAST AND WEST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT INWARD MOVING
SEA BREEZES EACH DAY WITH LIGHT FLOW CONTINUING IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 2" DURING THIS PERIOD AND
PCPN CHANCES NEAR NORMAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOCUSED INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON.



SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

[Sanibel]

If you plot the track of the estimated center from last night to now it is definitely rightward tending.

Extrapolation would almost assure a crossing of Haiti's southern arm as of now.

Trending right for now.

[storm4u]

I cant believe this isnt a tropical storm even if it doesnt have a low level circulation atleast people will pay closer atention to it. In my opinion they should have declared it a tropical storm. If i was in the path i would rather them be wrong on the high end of things then the low side. But i also know that they dont want to scare people and get alot of hype going.

[wxman57]

What's your track, Derek? You buy the NHC forecast?

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102745

Close to 12Z GFDL, north of HWRF. It's possible, I have it as my "other option" track.

[wxman57]

I hope it will go poleward. Looks impressive on visable. Recon scheduled for 2:00 EST.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

GFS forecasts a pretty strong ridge over central Bahamas Tue/Wed. That would argue for a more westward track from near Haiti.

[chris_fit]

I hope it will go poleward. Looks impressive on visable. Recon scheduled for 2:00 EST.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

GFS forecasts a pretty strong ridge over central Bahamas Tue/Wed. That would argue for a more westward track from near Haiti.

Right, but wouldn't Tues/Wed be too late? This is forecast to be in vicinity of the Bahamas on Friday....