caneman wrote:ronjon wrote:Caneman, relax, still a long ways off - and the models could continue to shift east the next few days - remember Fay? That 06Z GFDL track would be the worst case for Tampa Bay bringing in storm surge from a major. Let's hope they turned on the hurricane deflector shield at McDill next week.
Anyway, here is what the GFS and GFDL are keying on - a weakness in the 500 mb ridge that grows until it separates at 132 hrs. Did anyone notice that Ike slows down to just 6 or 7 mph the last 30 hrs of that run? Yikes!
You're right Ronjon. However, I want to point a couple things out here. Look at the consistency with these 3 models now. Consider how for several days we've remain nerly in the middle of the cone. Also, we've been under the gun with false alarms a couple times already with other storms. Consider how we are approaching the fall pattern. Something I want to point out to all Tampa Bay area residents is that just because we haven't been hit with a major in a long time doesn't mean we won't . People often site this, however, please consider how many times we've been hit by Tropical Storms. We rank fairly high on Hurrican Alleys site of frequent TS visits. The pattern have favored us getting hit many times by high end TS storms the just haven't been majors. I liken it to playing baseball. While you may be a player that hits singles all the time, if you keep swinging enough occassionally you will get a double, triple or in the park home run. Are we up to bat. Too early to tell. I've be more concerned if it keep swinging this way in the 2-3 day time frame.
That is the exact same feeling we have here in Mobile. Since '79 we haven't been hit directly by a TS or Cane, but we have had them come ever so close on either side. We feel that eventually we are going to get that direct hit, and that is what we fear. You can only go so long being so fortunate.
EAST of Tampa???
