TC Bertha

[HURAKAN]

The bad times are over.

[HURAKAN]

[crownweather]

Based on satellite estimates from SSD, the current movement of Bertha over the last 24 hours (From 1145 UTC Saturday to 1145 UTC this morning) is 278 degrees at 21 mph. Granted, I know this will probably end up being wrong but I extrapolated out the 24 hour position change to out to Wednesday and this is what it shows:

12Z Monday: 18.2 North, 51.6 West
12Z Tuesday: 19.1 North, 59.3 West
12Z Wednesday: 20.0 North, 67.0 West

[cycloneye]

ATCF latest plots,again strait west.

AL, 02, 2008070612, , BEST, 0, 172N, 441W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 30, 0, 75,

[Chacor]

[Emmett_Brown]

Strait West.

06/1145 UTC 17.3N 43.9W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Yup, this vis loop shows it... straight west, and fast. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Also appears to be getting better organized... nice ball of convection, and a very small band forming to the SE of the center, showing it is holding together, despite the very fast forward motion.

[HURAKAN]

ACE: 2.55. Don't worry it will go up really fast as Bertha moves westward or NW.

[storms in NC]

Seems that the NWC in Wilm is seeing a cuver and going near BERMUDA then on out to see. I Did never think we could be so lucky to get the rain. And yes I was Praying for it. But I know it wouldn't come to the south east coast. We had the highs over us for a few months now. For it to come to the coast you are talking about timing and that is a tight very tight window for it. IJMO


000
FXUS62 KILM 061119
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
719 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH MONDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...DEEP MOIST SWLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS CWA
CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER WESTERN LIMB OF BERMUDA HIGH AND ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHER PW VALUES THAN YESTERDAY...UP AROUND
2 INCHES...WHICH COULD MAKE HEAVY RAIN AN ISSUE FOR TODAY. H5
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER TODAY. IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...IN ADDITION TO OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...RESULTANT SEA BREEZE FRONT...AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH...WILL BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
WILL BE DIFFICULT AS THESE DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ARE NOT EASILY
DISCERNIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AMBIGUOUS. DESPITE TIMING ISSUES GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON LIKELY
POPS FOR TODAY. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY AGAIN CAUSE A BIT OF A
SHADOW EFFECT ALONG THE COAST...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH FOCUSING
MECHANISM OF PIEDMONT TROUGH MEANS THAT INLAND COUNTIES WILL SEE
BULK OF PRECIP. THAT DOES NOT MEAN WE CAN RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN
ALONG THE COAST THOUGH. ALL IT WILL TAKE IS ONE VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST. HAVE GONE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND A BIT
BELOW CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING FLATTER AS WE MOVE INTO TUES.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS UP IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON MONDAY...BUT
WILL DROP OFF TUES AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHES AND SOME DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. PCP WATER VALUES DECREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUES AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD BE BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS...AND NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD
GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM.
STARTS OUT A LITTLE DRIER WED MORNING...BUT MOISTURE QUICKLY
REBOUNDS AS PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE AGAIN TO OVER 2 INCHES WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT BY THURS. GFS SHOWING A FRONT MOVING
INTO LOCAL AREA ON THURS AND POSSIBLY STALLING OVER LOCAL AREA
THROUGH ON FRI WITH DRIER SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THURS AND FRI WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE PRESENT AS FRONT MOVES INTO AREA. HAVE
LOWER POPS OVER NEXT WEEKEND BUT KEPT DIURNAL LOW END CHC POPS FOR
THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE INTO LOCAL
AREA...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE FROM FRONT SEEMS TO REMAIN. GFS DOES
HAVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVER LOCAL AREA BY THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.

THE GFS SHOWS THE LATEST TRACK OF BERTHA NEAR BERMUDA BY NEXT
MONDAY...AND ECMWF CURVES THE STORM EVEN FARTHER EAST WAY OFF IN THE
DISTANT ATLANTIC. ITS JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW THIS ONE
WILL PAN OUT.

[cycloneye]

ACE: 2.55. Don't worry it will go up really fast as Bertha moves westward or NW.

If it moves much slower after 60w much more rise.

[HURAKAN]

Perspective between both Berthas.

[HURAKAN]

Healthy storm.

[HURAKAN]

Little or no change from Accuweather.

[HURAKAN]

Center is clearly under the deep convection.

[cycloneye]

This pass was around four hours ago.

[tolakram]

Shear increasing near the system. Seems to me a turn slightly north of west will bring it into heavy shear.

[HURAKAN]

Bertha: 7-6-96 11:45 UTC



Compare to Bertha 08, Bertha 96 was massive in size.

[Emmett_Brown]

This pass was around four hours ago.

Interesting. Based on that last Quickscat pass, it looks like the center is still on the South edge of the convection near 17N. Also note the very light winds on the S, no doubt because of the fast West motion. Still a closed circulation, but Bertha better not go too much faster, or she could un-coil.

[Javlin]

This pass was around four hours ago.

Well that having been four hrs ago clearly shows something about 16.6N 43.3-.5W right in line with Deltadog's position and Matt's from earlier today.Now I ask how right are the coordinates we have now?

[MiamiensisWx]

Bertha has been consistently "straying" west and south of the NHC's cone. Note that Bertha has continued to move W despite the progged WNW (and eventual NW) movement.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al02/loop_5W.shtml

Should anyone truly ignore this trend as it continues today? It's also racing west near ~22 mph as well.

[gatorcane]

MiamiWx yes I was about ready to post a similar observation. I don't understand how the NHC is not showing a cone that is basically due west under 3 days with more of a bend at 3-5 days.

The cone keeps trying to recuve Bertha but she is remaining shallow and showing no signs of moving WNW anytime soon. I can't see how they will not shift the cone left at this advisory or the next advisory in response to a nearly due west movement.

Not only that but she is moving so fast and there must be some lacking data out there where models are underestimating the ridge.