ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[wxman57]

The NHC must be thinking something similar or else their cone would not be so far north encompassing southern FL and the Bahamas.

The only reason the cone is covering that area is because the track is sitting at 22.5/78. As we have discussed so many times...the cone depends on the track...and is not some seperate forecast that changes. It is always the same size.

AFM, you buy the NHC initial track? What's your take on the GFS/Canadian ridge position over Florida for the next 5-6 days? I find it hard to believe Gustav (just upgraded) will track across Cuba toward the ridge. My initial track takes it west from north of Jamaica to the Yucatan, very similar to the 12z GFS. GFDL, I see, has some south of west motion as well but at a much slower clip, allowing it to turn north to the east-central Gulf. Could be moving it too slowly, though.

[Sanibel]

Anyone want to take a stab at the winds on the NE quadrant when they fly the alpha pattern?

72-74KTS Flight Level. (NOT A CURRENT READING)

[CrazyC83]

Still awaiting the 2(ish) pm advisory. The discussion could be quite interesting.

Don't usually have a discussion on the intermediates, but today may be different.

It will be a special advisory and those are full packages.

[HURAKAN]

Still awaiting the 2(ish) pm advisory. The discussion could be quite interesting.

Don't usually have a discussion on the intermediates, but today may be different.

There won't be an intermediate, it will likely be a full advisory.

[HurricaneBelle]

Still awaiting the 2(ish) pm advisory. The discussion could be quite interesting.

Don't usually have a discussion on the intermediates, but today may be different.

They do have discussions on the special advisories, but they're usually pretty brief (i.e., little or no model/intensity analysis) and usually no track analysis, unless there's a sudden shift (cf. Charley).

[wxman57]

As it wasn't posted here yet:

WTNT62 KNHC 251803

TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[TCmet]

Per Derek's comment:

"...it could be a day away from killing thousands in Haiti!"

and Treasure Island's complaint:

"...this better not rain out my holiday weekend."

- that's the difference between life here and in other countries...

it's good for all of us to keep the seriousness of this situation in perspective.

even Fay killed more people in Florida (11) than in Haiti (10). Gustav likely won't be as kind to Haiti.

[T'Bonz]

We have Gustav!

And 60 MPH winds! Already!

I hope this avoids my neck of the woods.

[drezee]

this system is not "fairly much out to sea"

it could be a day away from killing thousands in Haiti!

funny to me how "some" people continue to act as if people from the islands do not exist...

[KWT]

Yep 60mph Gustav, very rapidly strengthening though this probably has been a TS for a little while now. despite that we've already got banding and a good 24hrs before we even have to take land interaction into consideration, in this region of the world 30-40mbs drop in that time is do-able...scary times I feel for Haiti!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Per Derek's comment:

"...it could be a day away from killing thousands in Haiti!"

and Treasure Island's complaint:

"...this better not rain out my holiday weekend."

- that's the difference between life here and in other countries...

Yeah, I posted that and then saw his post when I went to read the board.

--Made me feel like a real schmuck.

I just wanted a decent weekend since my last 3 in a row have been rainy. But certainly not at the expense of anyone's life!

[hurricanefloyd5]

We have Gustav!

And 60 MPH winds! Already!

I hope this avoids my neck of the woods.

That cuold become a Hurricane when this full adv. comes if it keeps rapidly stregthening

[Derek Ortt]

The NHC must be thinking something similar or else their cone would not be so far north encompassing southern FL and the Bahamas.

The only reason the cone is covering that area is because the track is sitting at 22.5/78. As we have discussed so many times...the cone depends on the track...and is not some seperate forecast that changes. It is always the same size.

AFM, you buy the NHC initial track? What's your take on the GFS/Canadian ridge position over Florida for the next 5-6 days? I find it hard to believe Gustav (just upgraded) will track across Cuba toward the ridge. My initial track takes it west from north of Jamaica to the Yucatan, very similar to the 12z GFS. GFDL, I see, has some south of west motion as well but at a much slower clip, allowing it to turn north to the east-central Gulf. Could be moving it too slowly, though.

The GFS barely has a cyclone. It is almost certainly too far south

[Stormcenter]

As it wasn't posted here yet:

WTNT62 KNHC 251803

TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Now all we need is Gustav to go NNW then N and then NE.
Anything is possible especially in the tropics.

[hsvwx]

Just a quick comment from my perspective. There is clearly a ridge extending from the western Atlantic into Florida. 12Z upper air data clearly depicts this ridge. Once Gustav begins feeling the effects of this ridge, a bend back towards the west to west-northwest I think should be expected. Both 12Z nested hurricane models (HWRF and GFDL) have similar tracks to the western portion of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, things are still pretty uncertain as we will be forecasting 5-7 days out. As always, this is just my opinion looking at the forecasted synoptic pattern. Derek's forecast currently looks pretty plausible to me, and he caught onto this pattern early this morning. So kudos to him. I am sure the NHC will also do a marvelous job in the coming days! Look forward to reading and posting when I can, keep up the good work!

[tgenius]

Get ready with the news broadcasts in Miami..

[Annie Oakley]

Can somebody please post the link to the live recon data? Thanks.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt

how bout this one?
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[wxman57]

The GFS barely has a cyclone. It is almost certainly too far south

That may be true, but does it also not know at 00hrs that a ridge exists over Florida and the Bahamas, directly in the path predicted by the NHC? The actual track may end up left of yours and right of mine, toward the south-central Gulf with a hook north then northeast over the weekend. Time will tell.

[gatorcane]

Get ready with the news broadcasts in Miami..

Well based on Pro Met consensus so far, I would say South Florida looks to be in the clear. Nearly every pro met thinks the ridge is going to block Gustav from getting close at least to southern FL.

Good news for Southern FL again if this verifies.

[Category 5]

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


BAD news for Haiti, who just got soaked by Fay.