WTIO30 FMEE 101237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1200 UTC :
21.2S / 39.8E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 110
50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 22.7S/40.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 24.0S/40.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 24.8S/39.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.5S/38.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.5S/38.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 25.1S/37.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0-
THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY.
VERY SMALL AND RATHER WELL DEFINED IN VERY LOW LEVEL, THE EYE IS CONICAL
AND LESS WELL DEFINED IN HIGH LEVEL. IT DOES EXISTS ON VISIBLE AND IR
IMAGERY SINCE 0830Z.
THE SYSTEM SHOWS NOW AN EYE PATTERN ON THE IR IMAGERY, CONFIRMING THE
PATTERN SHOWED BEFORE ON THE MICROWAVE 1549Z (F13) AND 1702Z (F16).
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS,
TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. BY TAU 24 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION.
Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
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Re: Mozambique Channel: Tropical Cyclone Jokwe (TC 22S)
ZCZC 385
WTIO30 FMEE 101829 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 40.5E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 185
50 KT NE: 085 SE: 085 SO: 085 NO: 085
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 23.1S/40.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.3S/40.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.3S/39.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.6S/38.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.2S/37.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 24.5S/37.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-
THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. CURRENTLY, TEH SYSTEM
IS
STRENGHENING WITH A VISIBLE EYE ON EIR PICTURES AND WELL DEFINED ON
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY. JOKWE IS NOW AGAIN NEAR INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARDS TO
SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ON THIS TRACK, JOKWE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST
OF
EUROPA LATER TONIGHT. BY TAU 24 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A
RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION AND A MORE
NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK.=
NNNN
WTIO30 FMEE 101829 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 40.5E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 185
50 KT NE: 085 SE: 085 SO: 085 NO: 085
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 23.1S/40.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.3S/40.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.3S/39.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.6S/38.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.2S/37.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 24.5S/37.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-
THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. CURRENTLY, TEH SYSTEM
IS
STRENGHENING WITH A VISIBLE EYE ON EIR PICTURES AND WELL DEFINED ON
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY. JOKWE IS NOW AGAIN NEAR INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARDS TO
SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ON THIS TRACK, JOKWE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST
OF
EUROPA LATER TONIGHT. BY TAU 24 HOURS, THIS LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A
RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION AND A MORE
NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK.=
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC 198
WTIO24 FMEE 110026
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 11/03/2008
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/03/2008 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 40.9E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
THREAT AREAS:
15SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE HURRICANE 65/90 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS OF
THE CENTRE
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
24.4S / 41.1E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2008/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
25.3S / 40.5E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS REACHED AGAIN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. 30 KT WINDS
EXTENSION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED THANKS TO AN ASCAT PASS AT 1924Z.=
NNNN
WTIO24 FMEE 110026
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 11/03/2008
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 11/03/2008 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 40.9E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
THREAT AREAS:
15SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE HURRICANE 65/90 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS OF
THE CENTRE
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM
RADIUS
OF THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
24.4S / 41.1E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2008/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
25.3S / 40.5E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS REACHED AGAIN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. 30 KT WINDS
EXTENSION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED THANKS TO AN ASCAT PASS AT 1924Z.=
NNNN
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Here's the full tropical cyclone forecast warning (not the marine hurricane warning):
021
WTIO30 FMEE 110027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/12/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 40.9E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 095 SE: 095 SO: 095 NO: 095
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 24.4S/41.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.7S/39.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 24.8S/38.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 24.4S/38.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5
THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. JOKWE GAVE ITS BEST
PRESENTATION BETWEEN 1630Z AND 2200Z (UNFORTUNATELY DURING NIGHTTIME
BLACKOUT OF SATELLITE PICTURES !! BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT IT MAINTAINS DT
AROUND 5.5/6.0, MAKING CI AT 5.5 DURING THAT TIME). SO, JOKWE IS UPGRADED
TO MINIMAL INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITH WINDS AT 90 KT. SINCE 2200Z, OVERALL
CONFIGURATION HAS DETERIORATED.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS TO
SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. JOKWE HAS PASSED AROUND 2000Z AT 35 KM TO THE NORTH
EAST OF EUROPA WHERE A MINIMAL PRESSURE OF 985.5 HPA HAS BEEN MEASURED.
BY TAU 24 HOU
RS, THE AFOREMENTIONNED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION AND
A MORE NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
SURPRISINGLY, JOKWE SEEMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN SUCH MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORCASTED MOST PART OF THE
FORCAST PERIOD AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND, GRADUAL WEAKENNING IS
FORECAST BUT LESS AGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY.
021
WTIO30 FMEE 110027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/12/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8S / 40.9E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 095 SE: 095 SO: 095 NO: 095
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 12 UTC: 24.4S/41.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.7S/39.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 24.8S/38.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 24.4S/38.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5
THE SYSTEM SHOWS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. JOKWE GAVE ITS BEST
PRESENTATION BETWEEN 1630Z AND 2200Z (UNFORTUNATELY DURING NIGHTTIME
BLACKOUT OF SATELLITE PICTURES !! BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT IT MAINTAINS DT
AROUND 5.5/6.0, MAKING CI AT 5.5 DURING THAT TIME). SO, JOKWE IS UPGRADED
TO MINIMAL INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITH WINDS AT 90 KT. SINCE 2200Z, OVERALL
CONFIGURATION HAS DETERIORATED.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS TO
SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. JOKWE HAS PASSED AROUND 2000Z AT 35 KM TO THE NORTH
EAST OF EUROPA WHERE A MINIMAL PRESSURE OF 985.5 HPA HAS BEEN MEASURED.
BY TAU 24 HOU
RS, THE AFOREMENTIONNED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, RESULTING IN SLOWER MOTION AND
A MORE NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK.
SURPRISINGLY, JOKWE SEEMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN SUCH MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORCASTED MOST PART OF THE
FORCAST PERIOD AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND, GRADUAL WEAKENNING IS
FORECAST BUT LESS AGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY.
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Expected to weaken first but reintensify into a TC later:
WTIO30 FMEE 110639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3S / 41.1E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 095 SE: 095 SO: 095 NO: 095
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.8S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.5S/40.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.7S/39.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.2S/39.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 24.7S/39.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 24.1S/38.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS.
BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
SOUTH AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
NORTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY.
WTIO30 FMEE 110639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3S / 41.1E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 095 SE: 095 SO: 095 NO: 095
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/11 18 UTC: 24.8S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 25.5S/40.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 25.7S/39.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 25.2S/39.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 24.7S/39.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 24.1S/38.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS.
BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
SOUTH AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
NORTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAR 2008 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 24:16:42 S Lon : 41:08:56 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 954.0mb/ 90.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.9 4.5 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.0mb
Center Temp : -57.1C Cloud Region Temp : -54.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAR 2008 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 24:16:42 S Lon : 41:08:56 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 954.0mb/ 90.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.9 4.5 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.0mb
Center Temp : -57.1C Cloud Region Temp : -54.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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WTIO30 FMEE 111224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3S / 41.5E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.4S/41.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.9S/40.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.6S/39.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 24.8S/39.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 23.8S/39.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 23.0S/38.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 CI=4.5+
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS.
BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
SOUTH AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
NORTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3S / 41.5E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/12 00 UTC: 25.4S/41.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/12 12 UTC: 25.9S/40.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/13 00 UTC: 25.6S/39.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/13 12 UTC: 24.8S/39.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/14 00 UTC: 23.8S/39.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/14 12 UTC: 23.0S/38.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 CI=4.5+
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS.
BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
SOUTH AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
NORTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY.
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WTIO30 FMEE 111829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 1800 UTC :
25.2S / 41.6E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 26.1S/41.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 26.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 26.2S/40.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 25.8S/40.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 25.4S/40.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 24.8S/40.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS.
BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
SOUTH AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/11 AT 1800 UTC :
25.2S / 41.6E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/12 06 UTC: 26.1S/41.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/03/12 18 UTC: 26.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2008/03/13 06 UTC: 26.2S/40.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/03/13 18 UTC: 25.8S/40.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/03/14 06 UTC: 25.4S/40.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2008/03/14 18 UTC: 24.8S/40.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS.
BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A REBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
SOUTH AND A WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY.=
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Squarethecircle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
That would be pretty darned amazing, because not only will Jokwe have completely transversed the Mozambique Channel, but it will have intensified into a tropical cyclone 4 times. If it reaches a secondary peak anywhere close to this one, I will be completely blown away.
In my opinion, I believe that Reunion has done a notably superior job than the JTWC in handling this storm.
In my opinion, I believe that Reunion has done a notably superior job than the JTWC in handling this storm.
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