ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[RL3AO]

Not bad considering its d-min. Could be an interesting night.

[RL3AO]

[KWT]

Yep deep convection has developed recently close to where the disturbance is and the southern ITCZ convection has decayed markedly making the disturbance far easier to see, looks like its on its way to becoming a pretty decent little system.

[gatorcane]

I see a circulation around 10N 38W. Looks to be on a way to a Tropical depression to me.

[MiamiensisWx]

Nice GOES visible image from NRL

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks great right now for an invest. If this keeps up, then I suspect it will be named a tropical depression by tomorrow...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

Believe it or not, I was just looking at TVs in a retail store in Broward County -- as the sales person was flipping through the channels, one of the local channels was showing the area of disturbed weather that we may need to start watching here.

It's early for the media to be speculating in South Florida but given where it is trying to form and the general direction models take it, that may be why they are on to this one earlier than usual.

[KWT]

Agreed that does look very good indeed, big area of convection though the deep convection is near 10N, if ther eis a circulation present gatorcane then I agree its well on its way!

[Vortex]

I see a circulation around 10N 38W. Looks to be on a way to a Tropical depression to me.

It should begin to take on a more "classic" look by first light tomorrow.

[bvigal]

RL3AO - thanks for saving and posting those 4 pics. I just came in from church and lunch out, and it really helps to see what's transpired. I can clearly see the spin on visible sat, so no doubt trying to get organized. Don't see any adverse conditions to stop it, and the latitude doesn't bother me, many storms at this stage were below 10N. 18z model fix is 9.3N.

[Derek Ortt]

floater added at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html (a few hours are needed for a complete loop, since I just turned it on now... but loops are available in th C Atl sector)

[KWT]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if thats the case Vortex, it does seem to have a fair amount of convective baggage with it which may be the only thing that slows it down but even with that it does seem to be steadily organising right now.

[HURAKAN]

Get ready for tomorrow morning.

[Tstormwatcher]

get ready for an interesting week.

[Brent]

This one looks impressive.

[wxman57]

Believe it or not, I was just looking at TVs in a retail store in Broward County -- as the sales person was flipping through the channels, one of the local channels was showing the area of disturbed weather that we may need to start watching here.

It's early for the media to be speculating in South Florida but given where it is trying to form and the general direction models take it, that may be why they are on to this one earlier than usual.

Both GFS and European are forecasting a stationary ridge over Florida and the NE Gulf in the 7-10 day time frame. That would seem to indicate that it would be hard for a storm to head toward Florida, and it points to the GFDL/HWRF solution of a NE Caribbean threat then a turn northward east of Florida. A tad early to be too confident in that 10 day location, though.

Looks like it's well on its way this afternoon to becoming a TD on Tuesday. I think tomorrow may be too soon.

[HURAKAN]

[jaxfladude]

July may be a bit busy this year...or normal....or slow...you pick

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,that small yellow dot is where the low center is?

[KWT]

Wouldn't that suggest a threat to the Carolinas then wxman57 because there doesn't seem to be enough on the models of a weakness to send this far enough to the east not to be of major threat to the east coast...

Still this is probably a good 7-10 days away yet so we have a while to see what happens.

I agree this is looking pretty good right now, probably less then 24hrs away now I reckon, nice deep convection with this invest today!!!

Ps....whats the odds this will be another top 10 thread on this board, probably very high if it tracks through the Ne caribbean...