ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Jam151]

look at how it initialized it...absolutely nothing:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000s.gif

vs the other runs where it correctly picked up on the system
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000s.gif

that's probably the root of the problem

[Derek Ortt]

I dont see muc wrong with the initialization... it depicts a broad area of low-pressure

That said... I am not sure why it only develops slightly in the GFS. Same thing happened in Bertha

[Extremeweatherguy]

**I'm going to re-post this on this page so it does not get lost on page 8**

The 00z GFS is starting to run. I will post new model images as they become available...

12 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012m.gif

24 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024m.gif

36 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

48 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

60 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096m.gif

120 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

144 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif

168 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168m.gif - The GFS seems to lose the system.

180 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180m.gif

192 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192m.gif - What's left of the system seems to be in the southern Bahamas.

216 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216m.gif

240 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240m.gif - Is that it in the northern Bahamas??

LOOP = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

500MB LOOP = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Very weird run...

[Cyclenall]

I agree with the posters thinking there is a problem with this run. The way it handles the system seems unusual.

[Duddy]

The GFS screwed up this run somehow.

I'm going to let 94L go TD/TS (which should be any time now) before I read into the models any further.

[bvigal]

(Hey Luis!) Yeah, it's funny the GFS which has been bullish on this low for several days now seems to lose interest. 6z shouldn't look much different than 0z. I'm scratching my head, that's for sure, as all the other models were sure looking strong on this at 18z. But I'm looking at ir sat loops, and where the circulation centered a few hours ago is now nothing, a clear spot separating some far-flung areas of convection. Take a look at it through this shear map... see the split in direction? Maybe the low is gone...

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is clearly still some sort of low up near 11N...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

It actually looks quite good, IMO.

[bvigal]

Looks quite different on IR than vis
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ft.html

[bvigal]

Did UKmet drop this at 18z? It looked so impressive earlier, I was expecting a TD by tomorrow. I thought we'd at least see something on SSD by now, if only a "too weak". http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
I'm probably just hoping so hard that it will go away, it's effecting my objectivity!

[Scorpion]

We really need to wait until it develops to get a good handle on it.

[KWT]

Quite a few models have this thing now going to the south of the big islands, amazingly the 0z ECM takes this as a very weak system into the Yucatan!
Very long way yet from knowing what will happen, I suspect though its going to pick up more latitude then may models think it will, maybe quite close to the GFS track.

[ronjon]

Major shift in the models in the 00Z runs with better overall agreement to take 94L across the windward islands and then W-NW to just south of Hispanola. This track is similar to yesterdays 12Z Euro and CMC. Both the GFDL and HWRF now only indicate tropical storm strength as most of the models have backed off on intensity (shear maybe?). So now, its looking like storm could eventually threaten the Yucatan, anywhere in the GOM, or S FL. Seems it is less likely to recurve off the eastern US then thought yesterday. Still, we need to see if the models stay consistent. The immediate threat is our friends in the caribbean in 3-5 days.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[HURAKAN]

And it could shift back tomorrow. Until a clear LLC dominates, computer models won't be able to give a more precise estimate of the future track of 94L.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models are starting to doubt its chances. I'm becoming less excited.

[KWT]

Yep models have shifted back to the west again BUT track is currently a lot further north then the models show and has been heading WNW for the lasat 24hrs, indeed now its jumped to the NW as the center moves to around 11N.

Those models don't look great for Hispaniola however, the giant killer island!

Matt, remember the ECM and the GFS opening up Bertha into an open wave just as it was bombing into a cat-3...yeah we shouldn't trust them for intensity.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL:Western Caribbean bound.

WHXX04 KWBC 141128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 40.5 305./12.0
6 11.1 41.5 266./ 9.9
12 11.2 42.0 282./ 5.4
18 11.3 43.7 276./16.7
24 11.2 44.9 265./11.3
30 11.4 46.3 278./14.1
36 11.8 47.9 282./15.7
42 11.9 49.4 274./15.0
48 12.1 51.7 276./22.0
54 12.4 53.3 281./16.8
60 12.7 55.2 278./18.6
66 12.9 56.9 277./16.6
72 13.1 58.6 274./16.6
78 13.5 60.2 285./16.4
84 13.9 61.5 289./12.4
90 14.4 63.1 287./17.0
96 14.9 64.8 287./16.8
102 15.4 66.8 284./20.1
108 15.6 68.5 275./15.9
114 15.8 70.1 278./16.0
120 16.1 71.8 281./16.1
126 16.7 73.5 290./17.4

[KWT]

Yep on that track cycloneye Jamiaca would be at risk from there in about 144hrs time but who knows, still too early to tell exactly what sort of track this system will take, current steering does indicate a mainly west track for now.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Code: Select all

000
WHXX01 KWBC 141249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC MON JUL 14 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080714 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        080714  1200   080715  0000   080715  1200   080716  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N  42.0W   12.2N  44.6W   13.0N  47.7W   13.4N  51.2W
BAMD    11.5N  42.0W   12.2N  44.4W   12.9N  47.0W   13.6N  49.7W
BAMM    11.5N  42.0W   12.1N  44.5W   12.7N  47.5W   13.3N  50.9W
LBAR    11.5N  42.0W   12.4N  44.4W   13.0N  46.9W   13.6N  49.6W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          35KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        080716  1200   080717  1200   080718  1200   080719  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.1N  55.4W   16.2N  63.5W   18.3N  71.2W   20.8N  78.7W
BAMD    14.0N  52.3W   14.7N  57.4W   15.8N  63.3W   17.0N  68.8W
BAMM    13.7N  54.4W   14.5N  61.4W   15.4N  68.7W   17.2N  76.3W
LBAR    14.1N  52.6W   15.2N  59.2W   16.3N  66.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        47KTS          56KTS          64KTS          64KTS
DSHP        47KTS          56KTS          64KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.5N LONCUR =  42.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  10.2N LONM12 =  39.4W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 =  37.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[Extremeweatherguy]

The models are surprisingly pretty clustered right now.

[KWT]

Looks like at this stage it may try and take the path of death, I seriously doubt there would be much left if it took the WNW path over several of the major islands...also its going to have to stop heading NW soon if its going to even get that far into the Caribbean.