ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not to many interested in this one.

This has a hugely, bigger, much better chance of affecting the US than 94L does...

[KWT]

Yep convection is certainly expanding out from the little area of storms that formed about 9hrs ago to the east of that circulation. Still doesn't look quite there in trms of organisation but its slowly getting there.

When is recon going to go into this system?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not to many interested in this one.

it isn't a threat to texas or florida. what did you expect? i just wanted to add that 94L could be a threat so they're paying much more attention to it.

SSSSHHHHHHH I was trying to be nice here. But true LOL

Im from FL and watching...i think its gonna be a Hugger..May not effect Linas either besides for rain and breeze..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not to many interested in this one.

it isn't a threat to texas or florida. what did you expect? i just wanted to add that 94L could be a threat so they're paying much more attention to it.

Don't feel bad. While Florida is the hurricane king of America, if one lives near the coast in North Carolina, it seems like one has a much better chance of getting a tropical cyclone at any given point than any given point in coastal Texas.

And, it is almost 300 miles to the nearest NASCAR race for me in Houston. And front-stretch tickets run between $120 and $200.

I guess if you really want hurricanes, move to Florida. But be glad that in Texas and North Carolina the chances are remote at best you'll be eaten by a large reptile if you choose to take a dip in a local creek or lake.

And Texas and North Carolina have four distinct seasons. While snow isn't exactly common, we both get to enjoy GFS runs at hour 288 showing precip with sub 540 dm thicknesses. Floridians miss out on that non-tropical season excitement.

[cpdaman]

think center reform will take place near 31.2 79.8

[KWT]

Quite possibly cpdaman and if thats the case then the models are going to be a little bit out, also takes it close to the gulf stream as well and if that happens then we have a very good shot at eventual development.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Getting colder cloud tops on East side of center.


I said it before, I think this may be a Texas style "half storm", where dry air from land to the West keeps storm activity limited to the West, while storms are concentrated to the center.

May have a visible that shows half the center as a low level cloud swirl with just a few showers on the West side, while the Eastern half of the center and circulation is under deep thunderstorms.


Such a system, when it makes landfall, will have almost all the weather on its East side, as there aren't many showers to mix down stronger winds on the West side.


In my amateur, humble, unendorsed and unprofessional opinion.

[storms in NC]

Not to many interested in this one.

it isn't a threat to texas or florida. what did you expect? i just wanted to add that 94L could be a threat so they're paying much more attention to it.

Don't feel bad. While Florida is the hurricane king of America, if one lives near the coast in North Carolina, it seems like one has a much better chance of getting a tropical cyclone at any given point than any given point in coastal Texas.

And, it is almost 300 miles to the nearest NASCAR race for me in Houston. And front-stretch tickets run between $120 and $200.

I guess if you really want hurricanes, move to Florida. But be glad that in Texas and North Carolina the chances are remote at best you'll be eaten by a large reptile if you choose to take a dip in a local creek or lake.

And Texas and North Carolina have four distinct seasons. While snow isn't exactly common, we both get to enjoy GFS runs at hour 288 showing precip with sub 540 dm thicknesses. Floridians miss out on that non-tropical season excitement.

I lived in Ft Myers from 1969 to 1976 No hurricanes then tampa from 1978to 1983 No Hurricanes then lived in Pamana City Fl from 1986 to 1993 No Hurricanes. I moved to the family farm in 1994 no Hurricanes till My Brother moved back up here in 1996 and I have been though 7-8 hurricanes from 1996 till now. Told my brother and Mom and dad to move back to Fla.LOLOLOLOL. So it shows you it don't matter where you live if you are close by the sea watch out.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a depression is forming off the coast of southern GA/Northern Florida. Clearly defined LLC on visible with convection firing over it, should be a cyclone soon!

[Blown Away]

Wow, this looks really good, 96L has to be close to TD status at least based on the visible. It's got to stay offshore for a few more hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

Its certainly getting close now though I would like to watch that LLC just for a little longer to see waht it does but I agree its got the convection and it does have a clear circulation heading towards that convection so we may wellget a depression out of this soon enough.

[Stormavoider]

It looks like the LLC got slurped under the convection to the East.

[HURAKAN]

Looks very nice this morning and may be very close to a depression. It's always great to see two out of three invests close to depression/ts status

[Bane]

Not to many interested in this one.

it isn't a threat to texas or florida. what did you expect? i just wanted to add that 94L could be a threat so they're paying much more attention to it.

Don't feel bad. While Florida is the hurricane king of America, if one lives near the coast in North Carolina, it seems like one has a much better chance of getting a tropical cyclone at any given point than any given point in coastal Texas.

And, it is almost 300 miles to the nearest NASCAR race for me in Houston. And front-stretch tickets run between $120 and $200.

I guess if you really want hurricanes, move to Florida. But be glad that in Texas and North Carolina the chances are remote at best you'll be eaten by a large reptile if you choose to take a dip in a local creek or lake.

And Texas and North Carolina have four distinct seasons. While snow isn't exactly common, we both get to enjoy GFS runs at hour 288 showing precip with sub 540 dm thicknesses. Floridians miss out on that non-tropical season excitement.

i'm on the coast in north carolina. chances of getting attacked by a large reptile are definitely there. we just tend to look before we swim.

[MyrtleBeachGal]

We're having bands of clouds coming in off the ocean this morning, but no rain so far. Winds are very calm here. I'm about a block from the ocean. Looks like most of the precipitation is staying south of us near Charleston, but radar shows some bands making it onshore in Wilmington. Tomorrow might be an interesting day!

[HURAKAN]

[Stormtrack03]

From the latest Charleston Area Forecast Discussion:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 08Z IN REGARDS TO THE TROPICAL LOW PRES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. IT APPEARS A NEW SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE EXPANDING SHIELD OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS TO THE E OF THE SABSOON NETWORK OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST. THE INITIAL EDDY JUST TO THE E OF BRUNSWICK SEEMS TO BE PLAYING OUT AND THIS NEW LOW MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR EVENTUALLY A FULL FLEDGED TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THIS WEEKEND GIVEN IT/S POTENTIAL NEW FOUND LOCATION. 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE KEEN ON THIS IDEA AS WELL WITH A 24 HOUR LOW PRES POSITION 40 TO 50 NM SE OF CHARLESTON.

[KWT]

Yeah it sure does look like that Stormavoider which is a good thing for this systems chances and probably means this is getting close to becoming a depression. I wonder what Dvorak shows now.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope the 53rd WRS can support a short notification mission before today is over to 96L. I think, unofficially, we'll see Cristobal and Dolly in the next 24 hours, with which invest becomes which storm mainly a factor of aircraft timing.