ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[cycloneye]

The folks at the NHC are now increasing their interest in this system.A plane is sceduled to depart tommorow at 11:00 AM EDT (If Necessary)

NOUS42 KNHC 201600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 AM EDT SAT 20 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 21/1400Z
D. 17.0N 67.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 22/0000Z
F. SFC - 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY
BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[cycloneye]

Long range radar of San Juan shows way down the circulation.

[jaxfladude]

Oh great, another system for some one to watch, I had hoped that Ike was the end of the season...

[jlauderdal]

Bear watching.

I wondered how long it would take for someone to use that picture for that...

i would like to know the disposition of that fool considering galveston island took a pretty good shot from ike

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow:
Oh great, another system for some one to watch, I had hoped that Ike was the end of the season...

Highly unlikely a system in mid sept would be the last

[pojo]

The folks at the NHC are now increasing their interest in this system.A plane is sceduled to depart tommorow at 11:00 AM EDT (If Necessary)

NOUS42 KNHC 201600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 AM EDT SAT 20 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 21/1400Z
D. 17.0N 67.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 22/0000Z
F. SFC - 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY
BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 22/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

We'll see what 93L has if we fly tomorrow

[Just Joshing You]

Do you think you'll end up flying?

[Blown Away]

Looks like PR is going to get the wet side of this invest. Is that some convection finally building on the NE side of the LLC? I see the LLC near 15.7N/66.1W, moving NW.

[Sanibel]

Since system is basically stalled GFDL pull-up looks like it is happening and is correct response to synoptic.

Latest center burst could be reburst of main center.


Got my Java back but computer is sick.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Moving NW on visible.

[Aristotle]

I know I'm a newb but this thing (not looking at the future conditions) seems like its turning into an organized system very quickly! Now I mean that with relativity in comparison to how unorganized it was just 1 1/2 days ago.

[Gustywind]

It's unbelievable how quickly the weather here has deteriorated today. Most of the day was pretty much fair and now it's overcast and raining heavily with frequent peals of thunder that are getting louder with time.

Absolutely Abajan you're right too, but i understand perferctly the situation in Barbados, because i have something for you ... but afterwars i'm . Maybe this bulk will race near Guadeloupe, so maybe the worst is to come here?
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/barbados.shtml
Updates from the Islands -
- - Barbados - -
- Barbados
From: "PEQUENEZA,J" <sydmouth at caribsurf.com>
Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2008 12:52:56 -0400

We have just had the most tremendous thunder and lightening storm complete with driving rain and high winds, here on the South coast. The road has flooded next to me and the water is gushing down into my garden. I actually stayed in the main hallway with my dogs as the lightening strikes were so intense and the thunder rattled the house. Can't ever remember ever having seen a storm so wild. Amazing the power stayed on. Still raining but skies getting brighter.

[cycloneye]

885
ABNT20 KNHC 201743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST
OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[jlauderdal]

885
ABNT20 KNHC 201743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY. WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST
OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

this is rather bullish


http://www.theonion.com/content/files/i ... Bull-C.jpg

[cycloneye]

Looks like PR is going to get the wet side of this invest. Is that some convection finally building on the NE side of the LLC? I see the LLC near 15.7N/66.1W, moving NW.

We may get between 3-6 inches and maybe more in isolated areas in the mountains.

[Recurve]

Looks like a healthy wave today but fighting westerlies. If those relax as forecast it should bear watching.

[pojo]

Do you think you'll end up flying?

you should be able to answer that question.

[Gustywind]

Like HUC in Guadeloupe , in my area i've modest to sometimes heavy showers falling here, no winds , but it's very grey, sad, dark. I was out this morning and in others locations ... i saw a few branchs spared on the road due to i tkink the water in excess, elsewhere numerous floodings but localized....

[Sanibel]

Sounds like energy to me Gusty.

[cycloneye]

This is more than energy.Peeps,take a look at this report from the island of Monserrat.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... rrat.shtml