Madagascar: OVERLAND DEPRESSION ex. IVAN (TC 18S)

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

18SIVAN.100kts-948mb-

[HURAKAN]

Very bad news for Madagascar.

[Pedro Fernández]

What a monster.........! Very nice in the visible image



MeteoFrance-Reunion gives it 955 hPa and 75 KT in the last advisory at 6 UTC... I think it's a bit low, looking at the visible image.

DVORAK remains at 5.5..........

5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)

[Crostorm]

Here is another magic image

[Chacor]

That image hasn't been properly stretched yet.

[HURAKAN]

[Pedro Fernández]

WTXS33 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

After reading that, can we consider IVAN as category 3 (Saffir Simpson) tropical cyclone? I would say yes...

[HURAKAN]

According to the JTWC and Dvorak's estimates, it's a Cat. 3. But they're not the official word here.

Landfall less than 24 hrs from now:

[Cyclenall]

Your producing images around the clock! Nice work. Ivan here is amazing like 2004's Hurricane Ivan since both are long lived (relatively).

[HURAKAN]

Hondo is not located northwest of Ivan, it's actually several hundred miles to the east, but I just wanted to include the ex-tropical cyclone in the image and still keep Ivan as the main attraction.

[Chacor]

Your producing images around the clock! Nice work. Ivan here is amazing like 2004's Hurricane Ivan since both are long lived (relatively).

And both came back from the dead!

[parvez_savage]

Wow..so beautiful......

[Coredesat]

Unfortunately, it appears the Euro nailed this one. Close to landfall.

[Coredesat]

1km MODIS from 06Z:

[Coredesat]

06Z late-cycle models:

[parvez_savage]

Meteo Reunion has now Upgraded IVAN. It is a INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE with pressure of 941Hpa

[parvez_savage]

2008 16 Feb 1300z: TC 18S/IVAN: South Indian Ocean Area, Mascarenes islands area.
Centre loc: near 16.4s and 51.9e at 12z(JTWC).
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS(up to 06z) - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS, veering more WSW to SW within the next 24h.
Max winds(1mn): 115kts(T6.0)(06z/JTWC).
CATEGORY(Australian):4
Intensifying.
SATELLITE DATA:
Met7(57.5e) hres vis 12z

[parvez_savage]

[G.B.]

Looks like it's only a few hours from landfall.