ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Brent]

[Blown Away]

Look familiar? Erie similarity on the track, this was the pre loop approach.

[storms in NC]

Look at Gus bands feeding into Hanna.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[wzrgirl1]

wow holy moly I knew they were close but not that close....that's why everyone in the cone needs to pay attention

[jinftl]

I almost interpret the forecast track as being split between the models that show carolinas and the model(s) that say east coast fl or south....there may be no model that shows the forecast track...it is an averaging of them all.

Needless to say that is the best thing to do as Rhome has elected to do but the Florida threat remains still after reading the discussion. One scenario brings it into the East Coast of Florida the other brings Hanna to the Carolinas.

The forecast track lies between these two scenarios and is a "safe bet" at this point until models start to gain convincing consensu.s

SINCE THERE IS NO CLEAR
REASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME...I'VE
ELECTED TO LEAVE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND
72 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2038.shtml

It's important NOT to concentrate on the line in this particular case especially due to model uncertainty

So the First Coast area of NE Fla/SE Ga is still under the possible impact of a land falling Hurricane Hanna(Cat. 1 at this point) if I read the 5pm NHC/TPC discussition right and here on this Hanna thread...

[jinftl]

Seeing the 5pm Thurs forecast pt with the "H" parallel to Lake O....it really brings home the idea that this really could be a close call for many areas...and no doubt this will be an interesting week for even more.

[cpdaman]

well gustav is sure shearing the heck out of her

any mets know how long this shear from hanna may hang around?

shear from ULL and gustav good luck hanna, maybe monday will be your day

[storms in NC]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]



I can give you all a sure way that it is going into Fl. here it comes. Hanna will go right into the Cape Fear River. A hurricanes can smell it 100s miles away.
So now there you have it solved. Into Fla east Coast.

You were talking about a Ga hit. They are tucked in as the old saying goes. So I would see the 5 day moved by Monday afternoon for Myrtle Beach to cape fear

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[jinftl]

I envision a scenario where our girl Hanna Montana decides she likes hanging out with people compared to fighting shear in the Bermuda Triangle...she may put fear in folks in FL on her way up to Cape Fear.

Wouldn't be surprised to see watches or warnings go up from Florida City all the way to NC/VA border at some point this week.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I can give you all a sure way that it is going into Fl. here it comes. Hanna will go right into the Cape Fear River. A hurricanes can smell it 100s miles away.
So now there you have it solved. Into Fla east Coast.

You were talking about a Ga hit. They are tucked in as the old saying goes. So I would see the 5 day moved by Monday afternoon for Myrtle Beach to cape fear

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote][/quote]

[Blown Away]

If Hanna's LLC follows the NHC forecast points it will be totally exposed so I wonder if the LLC is moving more SW with the deep convection? Ukmet maybe be right.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Also, it appears the Gus is moving faster than predicted I wonder what implications this will have on Hanna.

[captain east]

If Hanna's LLC follows the NHC forecast points it will be totally exposed so I wonder if the LLC is moving more SW with the deep convection? Ukmet maybe be right.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Also, it appears the Gus is moving faster than predicted I wonder what implications this will have on Hanna.

Do you know how strong UKMET is predicting she will be though?

[jlauderdal]

If Hanna's LLC follows the NHC forecast points it will be totally exposed so I wonder if the LLC is moving more SW with the deep convection? Ukmet maybe be right.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Also, it appears the Gus is moving faster than predicted I wonder what implications this will have on Hanna.

hard to believe there is a center in that mess, im starting to think this thing opens up and then comes west as a wave

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Look familiar? Erie similarity on the track, this was the pre loop approach.

Oh Blown_Away, you can give a girl heart failure bringing that picture up!

~Beth~

[Weatherboy1]

some fairly intense convection firing up for Hanna. I wonder if the LLC hasn't managed to tuck under some of it. The last few visible shots and the last recon reports appears to show a SW-erly motion, and now you have deep convection firing up over where the LLC would be if that SW motion continued. This could be the first sign of Hanna trying to get her act together and intensify. We'll see.

[cpdaman]

If Hanna's LLC follows the NHC forecast points it will be totally exposed so I wonder if the LLC is moving more SW with the deep convection? Ukmet maybe be right.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Also, it appears the Gus is moving faster than predicted I wonder what implications this will have on Hanna.

from IR 2 you would think she IS moving SW and i have her (per guess at ) 22.9 71.6 or there abouts

appears she has been moving in that direction since 2 pm or so , and i if the recon plane flew through again earlier today (when it left) i bet the next VDM would have been sw/wsw just like the last one had been. But they are the pro's and i would definitely take there word over mine, especially since hanna has been notoriously a tuff storm to "see" her center via loops
and how strong does the ukmet take her to, convection appears to be building

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps shifts further S and west with landfall now across s/central fl.
18Z Ukmet continues sw towards the central cuba coast.

[HURAKAN]

Stronger convection developing tonight.

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z Nogaps shifts further S and west with landfall now across s/central fl.
18Z Ukmet continues sw towards the central cuba coast.

Can I see the NOGAPS please? Do you have a link?

[masaji79]

This is the best satellite presentation Hanna has had in two day IMO.

[Vortex]

Presently, the ukmet certainly appears to have the best handle. A challengeing future forecast for sure.