ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[tolakram]

From a distance it looks better.

[cheezyWXguy]

If im correct, it appears a tcfa has been issued once again on 94L. Take a look at the NRL page.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Sanibel]

11.8N-58W

[wxman57]

I think it should be said that if Caribbean conditions are similar to last year we should watch for Caribbean favorability and development. In other words like those which traversed the Caribbean last year, but the July version. Just a thought.

Bones says that Spock would think that's logical. However, check the 850mb winds in its path and you'll see a fairly high spike in easterly flow ahead of the disturbance, up to 35-40 kts. Accelerating low-level winds would not be a favorable environment for development/strengthening. Presently, the wave is passing an upper trof axis, resulting in a temporary flare-up in storms. But those storms appear to be diminishing now, and an outflow boundary from some of the collapsed storms is heading into the islands.

I think the plane will find 25-30 kts on the north side and perhaps an area of light and variable winds to the south. With decreasing convection and no significant westerly winds to the south, the conclusion will be that there's no TD. But it's hard to out-guess the NHC sometimes. They can be very inconsistent in what they name.

[tolakram]

Most recent but still hours old.

[Ivanhater]

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think it should be said that if Caribbean conditions are similar to last year we should watch for Caribbean favorability and development. In other words like those which traversed the Caribbean last year, but the July version. Just a thought.

Bones says that Spock would think that's logical. However, check the 850mb winds in its path and you'll see a fairly high spike in easterly flow ahead of the disturbance, up to 35-40 kts. Accelerating low-level winds would not be a favorable environment for development/strengthening. Presently, the wave is passing an upper trof axis, resulting in a temporary flare-up in storms. But those storms appear to be diminishing now, and an outflow boundary from some of the collapsed storms is heading into the islands.

I think the plane will find 25-30 kts on the north side and perhaps an area of light and variable winds to the south. With decreasing convection and no significant westerly winds to the south, the conclusion will be that there's no TD. But it's hard to out-guess the NHC sometimes. They can be very inconsistent in what they name.

Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.

[MWatkins]

But it's hard to out-guess the NHC sometimes. They can be very inconsistent in what they name.

I believe this type of statement is a disservice to the people at the NHC. The have had a pretty rough political go in the last year or so...but the best tropical cyclone forecasters in the world work there.

Of course there is nothing certain in the world of tropical meteorology, but I would rather have those men and women placing the bets than anyone else. They are right far more often than most people (within the weather community) give them credit for.

MW

[Sanibel]

I agree the Caribbean Gate could crash this like it tends to do with systems of this type. However, this does look similar to some of the weak disturbances of last year in this location that went big once they traversed the Caribbean. I always look for a hazy look obscuring the surface circulation. Tonight should tell if 94L continues its stubborn improvement.


In my opinion this is a diurnal pulse preceeding another improvement.

[drezee]

171400 1412N 06004W 7366 02733 0120 +108 -430 073037 038 999 999 03

SMFR winds are 38 kts!

[NDG]

And the pressure continues to fall in Barbados, winds shifting now to the NNE
Conditions at Jul 16, 2008 - 01:00 PM EDTJul 16, 2008 - 12:00 PM CDTJul 16, 2008 - 11:00 AM MDTJul 16, 2008 - 10:00 AM PDTJul 16, 2008 - 09:00 AM ADTJul 16, 2008 - 08:00 AM HDT
2008.07.16 1700 UTC
Wind from the NNE (030 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob TBPB 161700Z 03011KT 9999 SCT012CB SCT014 BKN035 26/

[gatorcane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have increased my projection of 94L becoming a TD to 95% from 80% 24 hours ago. There is a 60% chance it will become a TS by the end of the day today becoming the third named system of the 2008 season (which appears it is going to be a rather active one).

Interests in the Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of this system as it moves West at 20mph. Refer to the models thread for where I think this system is heading.

[Thunder44]

And the pressure continues to fall in Barbados, winds shifting now to the NNE
Conditions at Jul 16, 2008 - 01:00 PM EDTJul 16, 2008 - 12:00 PM CDTJul 16, 2008 - 11:00 AM MDTJul 16, 2008 - 10:00 AM PDTJul 16, 2008 - 09:00 AM ADTJul 16, 2008 - 08:00 AM HDT
2008.07.16 1700 UTC
Wind from the NNE (030 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob TBPB 161700Z 03011KT 9999 SCT012CB SCT014 BKN035 26/

3mb pressure drop in the past 2 hours.

[RL3AO]

If the dropsonde shows a west wind, they will upgrade it due to proximity to land, IMO.

[WmE]

If the dropsonde shows a west wind, they will upgrade it due to proximity to land, IMO.

Yes that seems to be likely and reasonable IMHO.

[cheezyWXguy]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have increased my projection of 94L becoming a TD to 95% from 80% 24 hours ago. There is a 60% chance it will become a TS by the end of the day today becoming the third named system of the 2008 season (which appears it is going to be a rather active one).

Interests in the Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of this system as it moves West at 20mph. Refer to the models thread for where I think this system is heading.

eh...dont get too excited...yet. Convection appears to be waning quite a bit right now. If it can maintain what it has now it might still become a td after recon flies in, assuming there is a closed llc. However I wouldnt expect much if any more than that until tonight, when it could possibly blow up again. Time will tell, because I really dont know what will happen with this storm.

[NDG]

Interesting that the reconn coming into the sytem is finding 38kt winds at flight level more than 150 miles to the NW of the cyclonic center.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[txwatcher91]

Interesting that the reconn coming into the sytem is finding 38kt winds at flight level more than 150 miles to the NW of the cyclonic center.

That data was while they were descending and was also labeled suspect.

[wxman57]

But it's hard to out-guess the NHC sometimes. They can be very inconsistent in what they name.

I believe this type of statement is a disservice to the people at the NHC. The have had a pretty rough political go in the last year or so...but the best tropical cyclone forecasters in the world work there.

Of course there is nothing certain in the world of tropical meteorology, but I would rather have those men and women placing the bets than anyone else. They are right far more often than most people (within the weather community) give them credit for.

MW

I've actually talked to Bill Read about this issue. He's noticed the inconsistencies as well. I know most of the forecasters at the NHC and they're all excellent meteorologists. I think that the inconsistencies result from political pressures that they may be under when a system is close to land. But it's a fact, there are inconsistencies. Let's talk about the disturbance, though and not get sidetracked.