ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

I personally suspect that the center will get dragged eastwards when the next convective burst develops, doubt that will remain the center given the decent conditions over the convection presently.

[wxman57]

have to disagree about not having more inflow

there is more inflow to the east of the low

that's not the best for development, however

I guess it depends on how you define "inflow". If one thinks of inflow as flow inward toward a low pressure area, then that's not the case here. There's certainly convergence east of the lower pressure. I'm certainly not giving up on its potential to develop, just saying it's not developing today. Interesting that the 12Z GFS turns it north, east of Florida. Steering currents do appear to get very weak in 5 days.

[cheezyWXguy]

have to disagree about not having more inflow

there is more inflow to the east of the low

that's not the best for development, however

I guess it depends on how you define "inflow". If one thinks of inflow as flow inward toward a low pressure area, then that's not the case here. There's certainly convergence east of the lower pressure. I'm certainly not giving up on its potential to develop, just saying it's not developing today. Interesting that the 12Z GFS turns it north, east of Florida. Steering currents do appear to get very weak in 5 days.

That actually does concern me a bit, because conditions in that area should be very favorable by the time it gets there, and if it is just slowly meandering through the bahamas in those conditions, one might wonder about significant intensification IF it can get going before then.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is interesting. A system that just skirts the big islands headed towards SE FL does concern me though considering the GFS was through the FL straits yesterday.

The right shift in some of the models indicates the "classic" hook into Southern FL that may systems from the early 1900s have done so I am paying close attention to 92L. Hopefully it just stays weak over the big islands and never has a chance to get going.

[KWT]

Yeah a lot does depend on whether it can get north of the islands, looking at the current track of 280 its going to have a real tough time at least not clipping...however given it probably will be weak it may not make a big difference to the system.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I concur with wxman57's assessment in regards to the location of a weak surface low. The surface low is displaced SW of the convection and the best LL convergence. Currently, the MLC and broad, ill defined LLC (denoted by the weak closed surface low) are not co-located; however, this was not unexpected, and everything is unfolding as I anticipated. The system is currently experiencing the strongest upper level shear near the middle of the shear zone via the upper low to the northeast. Therefore, convection that attempts to develop over the surface low is sheared by the strong UL divergence. Additionally, LL convergence is meager in the immediate vicinity of the surface low. If you recall my comments over the past few days, I was insisting that this system would pass north of the Greater Antilles, but it would not miss the Leeward Islands. GOES visible imagery clearly indicates the surface low is moving north of due west toward the Leeward Islands.

As shear decreases over the next 24-48 hours (and the 300 mb anticyclone builds), it is likely that one of two scenarios may occur.

1. Convection develops directly over the current surface low, as the location of the best ascent shifts southwest.

2. The surface low may reform farther northeast in the vicinity of the greatest 850 mb LL vorticity. Low level convergence may be greatest in that vicinity (in the location of the current convection) down the line, so a LLC may form in the vicinity as well (as a new surface low develops).

Overall, both scenarios and H7-H85 streamline analysis suggests a track across the Leewards, bringing localized precipitation to the islands. Later, a track just north of the Greater Antilles seems reasonable.

Summary: I anticipate that the first stages of development may commence within 24-48 hours. Don't expect anything prior to that time frame. One of the aforementioned scenarios will likely occur within the next 24-48 hours as well.

[AJC3]

have to disagree about not having more inflow

there is more inflow to the east of the low

that's not the best for development, however

I guess it depends on how you define "inflow". If one thinks of inflow as flow inward toward a low pressure area, then that's not the case here. There's certainly convergence east of the lower pressure. I'm certainly not giving up on its potential to develop, just saying it's not developing today. Interesting that the 12Z GFS turns it north, east of Florida. Steering currents do appear to get very weak in 5 days.

And yet the new 12Z ECM is actually south/west of it's 00Z track (and MUCH weaker), taking the system to the western tip of Cuba by day 7.

[gatorcane]

have to disagree about not having more inflow

there is more inflow to the east of the low

that's not the best for development, however

I guess it depends on how you define "inflow". If one thinks of inflow as flow inward toward a low pressure area, then that's not the case here. There's certainly convergence east of the lower pressure. I'm certainly not giving up on its potential to develop, just saying it's not developing today. Interesting that the 12Z GFS turns it north, east of Florida. Steering currents do appear to get very weak in 5 days.

And yet the new 12Z ECM is actually a wee bit south of it's 00Z track (and MUCH weaker), taking the system to the western tip of Cuba by day 7.

Interesting trend with the Euro

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I concur with wxman57's assessment in regards to the location of a weak surface low. The surface low is displaced SW of the convection and the best LL convergence. Currently, the MLC and broad, ill defined LLC (denoted by the weak closed surface low) are not co-located; however, this was not unexpected, and everything is unfolding as I anticipated. The system is currently experiencing the strongest upper level shear near the middle of the shear zone via the upper low to the northeast. Therefore, convection that attempts to develop over the surface low is sheared by the strong UL divergence. Additionally, LL convergence is meager in the immediate vicinity of the surface low. If you recall my comments over the past few days, I was insisting that this system would pass north of the Greater Antilles, but it would not miss the Leeward Islands. GOES visible imagery clearly indicates the surface low is moving north of due west toward the Leeward Islands.

As shear decreases over the next 24-48 hours (and the 300 mb anticyclone builds), it is likely that one of two scenarios may occur.

1. Convection develops directly over the current surface low, as the location of the best ascent shifts southwest.

2. The surface low may reform farther northeast in the vicinity of the greatest 850 mb LL vorticity. Low level convergence may be greatest in that vicinity (in the location of the current convection) down the line, so a LLC may form in the vicinity as well (as a new surface low develops).

Overall, both scenarios and H7-H85 streamline analysis suggests a track across the Leewards, bringing localized precipitation to the islands. Later, a track just north of the Greater Antilles seems reasonable.

Summary: I anticipate that the first stages of development may commence within 24-48 hours. Don't expect anything prior to that time frame. One of the aforementioned scenarios will likely occur within the next 24-48 hours as well.

It does look like inhabitants in the Leewards will be fine...

[KWT]

Its tough to say what will happen MiamiensisWx, if the LLC was more defined it'd be easier but its really weak and may well have gone by 24hrs time IMO but if its still there then convection will fire over it before the convection further east reaches better conditions.

As you say Leeward islands do look like getting something from this tropical wave, got a sneaky feeling its going to be very close to PR as well...

The only issue is will it get north enough to totally avoid land and not suffer from land interaction as well.

[gatorcane]

Its tough to say what will happen MiamiensisWx, if the LLC was more defined it'd be easier but its really weak and may well have gone by 24hrs time IMO but if its still there then convection will fire over it before the convection further east reaches better conditions.

As you say Leeward islands do look like getting something from this tropical wave, got a sneaky feeling its going to be very close to PR as well...



The only issue is will it get north enough to totally avoid land and not suffer from land interaction as well.

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Well I was calling for a Leeward island miss a couple of days ago if you recall and it looks like it may just verify. I am also calling 92L to just skim the Greater Antilles but remain largely over water to develop.

I also continue to call a Southern FL hit/near miss/ or some kind of noticeable impact from 92L. To me this thing has this area of the basin written all over it.

[alienstorm]

If this is the center than this is very much done, dead.. There is strong southerly shear and no inflow what so ever.[/quote]
Yep. Done. This is gone in the next 5 minutes and there will never be another tropical storm ever again.

Why dont you eat those words tomorrow. Personally, I think this will organize a bit tomorrow, as conditions should really start to improve...but really all it has to do is exist tomorrow in order for you to eat your words.[/quote]

What I am saying is if this Low Pressure is the one that we anticipate development from then we should give it a very slim chance that it will develop. I am still of the opinion that the eventual center of this storm to be is more were the MLC is at. What we have here is two systems can be clearly seen in the form of the midlevel system and the lower level. Eventually one will take over and then the storm will develop and that is why my belief is that is happening right now with the MLC. If you notice the loop below you can clearly see a cyclonic twist (even two) in the MLC.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-57.0

[Stormcenter]

If I didn't know better I would think it was October or later after
viewing the latest satellite loop of 92L. A very usual weather pattern for
August in the U.S. currently. Who knows maybe Winter will arrive early
this year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

have to disagree about not having more inflow

there is more inflow to the east of the low

that's not the best for development, however

I guess it depends on how you define "inflow". If one thinks of inflow as flow inward toward a low pressure area, then that's not the case here. There's certainly convergence east of the lower pressure. I'm certainly not giving up on its potential to develop, just saying it's not developing today. Interesting that the 12Z GFS turns it north, east of Florida. Steering currents do appear to get very weak in 5 days.

And yet the new 12Z ECM is actually south/west of it's 00Z track (and MUCH weaker), taking the system to the western tip of Cuba by day 7.

By day 7 the Euro actually has this system inland over the FL Peninsula: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

If I didn't know better I would think it was October or later after
viewing the latest satellite loop of 92L. A very usual weather pattern for
August in the U.S. currently. Who knows maybe Winter will arrive early
this year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Can we stop writing this system away?

Repeat: NO ONE ANTICIPATED RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.

Thanks!!! I'm not insulting you, but I personally digress with the majority of the "dead" comments.

[storms in NC]

Where I see a spin motion is at the 18N57W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[artist]

artist I see something at around 17.3 N and 55.5 W

just saw your answer. That is approximately where I was seeing it then as well. Thanks for your reply .

[Stormcenter]

If I didn't know better I would think it was October or later after
viewing the latest satellite loop of 92L. A very usual weather pattern for
August in the U.S. currently. Who knows maybe Winter will arrive early
this year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Can we stop writing this system away?

Repeat: NO ONE ANTICIPATED RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.

Thanks!!!

This reply must have been for someone else because I NEVER write off any
invest or whatever until it's completely gone. The only thing I've said about
92L is that I just don't believe it will make it into the GOM.

[wxman57]

12Z GFDL turns it north to the northern Bahamas by day 5. Similar to 12Z GFS. Clearly, steering currents will become very weak in 4-5 days. I think there's a better chance than not of it just never developing. But it'll be interesting to watch in a few days.

[MiamiensisWx]

This reply must have been for someone else because I NEVER write off any
invest or whatever until it's completely gone. The only thing I've said about
92L is that I just don't believe it will make it into the GOM.

I apologize if I sounded harsh, and you may have not harped on "no development", but I've seen too many "permanently dead" comments within a short period.

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