ATL: IKE Discussion

[dizzyfish]

We really do appreciate that! I'm gonna ask hubby to call his family in Port St. Lucie and give them a heads up too. I think I will call my Aunt in Wachula too - I know how she worries about these things after Charley went through.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Stuart

I was afraid that sooner or later you were going to have that conversation with your parents. I guess that means me too since I am in Port St. Lucie!!! I'm having 2004 deja vu...

SFT

Yea this reminds me of watching Hurricane Frances in 2004 when it was a Category
4 and forecasted to hit Florida...it weakened to a Category 2 but did major
damage....Frances had my power flashing and tons of debris especially
from trees...that one was nasty...

[KWT]

Yep Deltadog everyone down in the SE states and Bahamas region need to be prepared for a major hurricane, hopefully the shear and upwelled waters from Hanna do a number on Ike but right now it seems likely even if it does its still going to end up being a major hit.

Last vis imagery suggests Ike is nearly moving due west now.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

More westward lately?

[KWT]

Yeah looks like it Hurakan, due west in the last 3 frames or so it seems, looks like the high has finally built over Ike and is about to shunt it towards the WSW, how far does it plummet from where it is the big question now though?

Wouldn't be all that surprised if it gets close to 21N when its done...

[Patrick99]

I hate that black line and those little forecast points. So misleading to those who don't know any better. So what if it points right at Miami, big deal. Could be Ft. Pierce, could be FTL, could be Miami, could be Islamorada, could be Key West....just takes one little wobble either way!

[tim_in_ga]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

More westward lately?

Yep - sure looks like it. Interesting little "L" shaped thing at the top.

[KWT]

Patrick99, in a situation like this where its going to be a very close call as to whether the trough digs enough to pick Ike up, I think its very wise to watch the cone.

[jlauderdal]

When will evacuations be for Dade if needed do you guys think? Sunday morning?

at the latest especially if we continue to have this model consensus, remember this is a major so an evacuation is much larger than what we have seen recently

[bosag]

Well, my 3 kids and I are headed up to stay with friends in chattanooga tomorrow nite, I will not sit and wait for the order to go and sit in traffic for hours. I realize the track can and will change but........... Please keep my dh in your thoughts as he is staying with my oldest son (21) and the dog.

Please stay safe everyone!

Barb in Jupiter

[Over my head]

If he sneaks thru the passage there below Florida (it's in the cone too) will it still go north at some point or is there a possibility he could keep on going into the Gulf ?

[Tertius]

If he sneaks thru the passage there below Florida (it's in the cone too) will it still go north at some point or is there a possibility he could keep on going into the Gulf ?

If it sneaks through the passage it IS in the Gulf, seems to me. Isn't it?

[dizzyfish]

That has crossed my mind too. Keep going into GOM or just hang a right into the west coast of Florida? Or maybe ride up the spine of the state? Or maybe just inland on the east coast and ride up the state?

I already hate Ike!

[Over my head]

If he sneaks thru the passage there below Florida (it's in the cone too) will it still go north at some point or is there a possibility he could keep on going into the Gulf ?

If it sneaks through the passage it IS in the Gulf, seems to me. Isn't it?

Yes....I meant on into the Gulf as in Texas

Or even cross completely over Florida and keep on going.

[KWT]

Hard to say OMH what it'll do now, had this been 24hrs ago I'd have confidently said no, but after the 12z ECM and UKMO I'm not so sure anymore

[Recurve]

If he sneaks thru the passage there below Florida (it's in the cone too) will it still go north at some point or is there a possibility he could keep on going into the Gulf ?

There is a possibility. It all depends on steering. I won't hazard even a wild donkey guess.
It's all fun until somebody gets hurt, so I much prefer a recurve before the Abacos.

It would be nice if a smaller section of Florida coast knows it might have to flee. But we'll see.

[Over my head]

Hard to say OMH what it'll do now, had this been 24hrs ago I'd have confidently said no, but after the 12z ECM and UKMO I'm not so sure anymore

Oh Lord. Well then I won't unpack yet from Gus's evacuation or put back up all the wind chimes and garden art.

[Over my head]

If he sneaks thru the passage there below Florida (it's in the cone too) will it still go north at some point or is there a possibility he could keep on going into the Gulf ?

There is a possibility. It all depends on steering. I won't hazard even a wild donkey guess.
It's all fun until somebody gets hurt, so I much prefer a recurve before the Abacos.

It would be nice if a smaller section of Florida coast knows it might have to flee. But we'll see.

Yes. For sure. They evac'd us...just in case. Horrible to not know for certain. And the Fl peninsula is so slim. I'm praying for the curve now. Right NOW.

[KWT]

Yep Recurve, sadly I've got a bad feeling this is going to be one of the more signifcant hurricanes down in the islands over the past 20 years, not sure exactly how it will rank but a major going through there looking a good bet for now.

[cheezyWXguy]

If he sneaks thru the passage there below Florida (it's in the cone too) will it still go north at some point or is there a possibility he could keep on going into the Gulf ?

If it sneaks through the passage it IS in the Gulf, seems to me. Isn't it?

Yes....I meant on into the Gulf as in Texas

Or even cross completely over Florida and keep on going.

You wish...chances of that are probably close to nada