ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[ROCK]

I wouldn't say its anyone storms yet....WAY too early to tell, but EURO is an interesting solution that just looks weird...

yeah I admit its jacked up but the prior 4 runs were thinking along the same lines....timing / strong the pac front will be key...IMO....

[Weatherfreak000]

Currently...im thinking all the models might be a tad off. This storm may indeed have a chance to get into the NW Caribbean if the movement doesn't change.

If that happens all current bets are off.

[Sabanic]

I wouldn't say its anyone storms yet....WAY too early to tell, but EURO is an interesting solution that just looks weird...

yeah I admit its jacked up but the prior 4 runs were thinking along the same lines....timing / strong the pac front will be key...IMO....

I don't believe we'll know squat until at least Wednesday

[AtlanticWind]

Looking at Ikes present motion I would say the UKMET may have the right idea with ike going into the carribean than into the southern gulf. I would never thought possible a couple of days ago.

Which would be good for the keys , though the evac for nothing would questioned even though it should not be.

[PTPatrick]

Nonetheless, considering we are looking about 6-7 days out, I wouldnt hang my hat on any one model. I agree TX/SW certainly within the realm possiblity. But this isnt exactly a Rita setup with high either. Interesting though UKMET is on the WGOM bandwagon.. .They are bound to swing back and forth. Long week ahead.

[Sabanic]

Nonetheless, considering we are looking about 6-7 days out, I wouldnt hang my hat on any one model. I agree TX/SW certainly within the realm possiblity. But this isnt exactly a Rita setup with high either. Interesting though UKMET is on the WGOM bandwagon.. .They are bound to swing back and forth. Long week ahead.

You are exactly right

[ROCK]

I wouldn't say its anyone storms yet....WAY too early to tell, but EURO is an interesting solution that just looks weird...

yeah I admit its jacked up but the prior 4 runs were thinking along the same lines....timing / strong the pac front will be key...IMO....

I don't believe we'll know squat until at least Wednesday

yeah, closer to landfall would give us better guidance to go off of.....right now we have hints on what Wed will look like...its finding those hints in the guidance that is hard....IMO

[Sanibel]

There are two wavelengths in the models. The main wavelength under the ridge has swung out further west in conjunction with Ike's WSW move into Cuba. The second one is more attuned to the tail end of the models and hasn't swung yet (if it does).

[jinftl]

The locals are used to that in the Keys...they take it all in stride...almost a yearly ritual....if not a ritual happening a few times each season. Locals know the surge threat from living in paradise.

Looking at Ikes present motion I would say the UKMET may have the right idea with ike going into the carribean than into the southern gulf. I would never thought possible a couple of days ago.

Which would be good for the keys , though the evac for nothing would questioned even though it should not be.

[Stratosphere747]

Look for another slight adjustment to the W at 4.

[LowndesCoFire]

The thing that I am wondering about is the fact that the models take it to the Central GOM, yes...but the models arent going out far enough to show any late turns to the N-NE as many have mentioned. If you extrap the tracks of the models then you do have the idea of a central GOM landfall, but I wouldnt guess too soon.

[jinftl]

Actually the runs looks quite similar....the latest version is just further out in time...if you look at the handy lat and longitude marks as a guide...there is no real push of the consensus in any direction different than the prior runs...just few more hours out.

Look for another slight adjustment to the W at 4.

[KWT]

Yeah it looks about the same, maybe the only slight difference is the foward speed is faster on the 18z runs.

[jhpigott]

are the 0Z models going to have the G-IV data inputted? that's should give us a better handle on the storm

[deltadog03]

I was going to say the same thing....The models just seem to show the further movement in time....

[Stratosphere747]

Which is a bit to the W...

[jinftl]

Almost wonder if it is the same model run, just out a bit more in time...not one model changed its track...we just see the next 12 hours of it or so

Yeah it looks about the same, maybe the only slight difference is the foward speed is faster on the 18z runs.

[otowntiger]

Actually the runs looks quite similar....the latest version is just further out in time...if you look at the handy lat and longitude marks as a guide...there is no real push of the consensus in any direction different than the prior runs...just few more hours out.

Look for another slight adjustment to the W at 4.

Wow. How much further west will this thing go? That high is unbelievable! If Ike continues on this south west type motion and the models continue the relentless trek westward, Ike may very well end up in Texas yet, maybe Mexico? I'm being somewhat facetious, but wow, just wow. What a BIG change from just yesterday morning!!! How could everyone been so far off just such a short time ago??? I really, really really hope this thing doesn't go to Louisiana, but it looks to me, just my humble opinion, mind you, that Louisiana has a better chance of seeing this storm than Florida, save for maybe the panhandle.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I was going to say the same thing....The models just seem to show the further movement in time....

Im not sure why we bother looking at all these lines...LOL has any of these off the wall models proved themselves?

[cape_escape]

Up N towards the coast....

Thank you, that's what i thought but wasn't sure. What's your thoughts on a recurve into the West Coast of Fla?

ah none most likely. this is strictly a panhandle west storm. sorry I know you weren't asking me but if you saw the ARL just above you would see that. central west coast manatee through citrus probably feel dry subsidence like with gustav sure has been hot with all that dry air from gustav hannah and now ike.

Thank you robbielyn.....that sounds much better than having no power for a week!