ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[jenshops]

Quick question:discussions keep talking about the high building in, doesn't this usually push the storms more west and its the weakness or troughs that move them more nw?

[AJC3]

Quick question:discussions keep talking about the high building in, doesn't this usually push the storms more west and its the weakness or troughs that move them more nw?

Depends upon the orientation of the high pressure ridge, how strongly it builds westward, etc. etc. In this case, unless something changes big time in the next 3-5 days, it appears as if it will prevent a recurve, allowing for a likely southeast CONUS landfall.

[wxwonder12]

AJC3, when you say "prevent a recurve" are you speaking of out to sea or preventing a turn to the n or nw toward the Carolinas and having the track continue to the w or wnw?

[jenshops]

I lived in Miami during Andrew and I remember that they were expecting that to go way north but the high built in really strong and that is why it cut across Fl and into the gulf, how likely is it that this high will be strong enough to send Hanna across Fl before it turns?

[AJC3]

AJC3, when you say "prevent a recurve" are you speaking of out to sea or preventing a turn to the n or nw toward the Carolinas and having the track continue to the w or wnw?

Out to sea...meaning the southeast CONUS from FL to the Carolinas is fair game for landfall. I'm not going to bite off on Hanna's center being more likely to bypass the east coast of Florida....at least not yet...as it's too early to say for sure. Plus...there will likely be at least some effects felt along the east coast of Florida regardless of where the center makes landfall.

[wxwonder12]

gotcha, thanks

[Blown Away]

I lived in Miami during Andrew and I remember that they were expecting that to go way north but the high built in really strong and that is why it cut across Fl and into the gulf, how likely is it that this high will be strong enough to send Hanna across Fl before it turns?

Considering almost the entire state of Florida, including most of the Panhandle is in the cone, there is a decent chance. Especially since there is no prediction of recurve before landfall.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS run is heading to northern Florida, trailing NW, but with more of a west component rather than north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

[boca]

I think it all depends on how strong that high will be once it builds in again NE of Hanna. A stronger high would force her WNW while a weaker high would send her in the Carolina's. I think senario 2 is more likely.I'm feeling more confident that at least S FL won't have to deal with Hanna, although things can change on a dime but I'm leaner for a Carolina landfall on this storm due to the high not being as strong.

[Chigger_Lopez]

I think it all depends on how strong that high will be once it builds in again NE of Hanna. A stronger high would force her WNW while a weaker high would send her in the Carolina's. I think senario 2 is more likely.I'm feeling more confident that at least S FL won't have to deal with Hanna, although things can change on a dime but I'm leaner for a Carolina landfall on this storm due to the high not being as strong.

I will disagree based on the fact that I had read that the reason the high had a chance to be weaker therefore sending Hannah more north would be if Gustave headed more east especially after landfall. Considering the models all show Gustave making landfall QUICKLY and moving west would that not weaken the ridge as much allowing Hannah to move More NW as opposed to NNW as modeled? Mets welcomed. . .

[bahamaswx]

'Blob' continues to grow. Not moving all that much. Can't make out the LLC at all though.

[boca]

Hanna looks stationary.It looks like its intensifying too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[meteorologyman]

Hanna looks stationary.It looks like its intensifying too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Thats terrific news... best I heard all day (sarcasm)

This stinks I'm suppose to get my paycheck Thursday but Hanna may stop me from getting it depending where she turns and what she becomes.

[terrapintransit]

Hanna looks stationary.It looks like its intensifying too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

She's growing in size as well!

[Ptarmigan]

Hanna looks stationary.It looks like its intensifying too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Hanna is looking really impressive. Got some really cold cloud tops.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hanna looks stationary.It looks like its intensifying too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Hanna is looking really impressive. Got some really cold cloud tops.

Colder cloud tops than Gustav at the moment, actually.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

[BigA]

That is some impressive blacktop on Hanna.

[Praxus]

Drop in a pinhole eye and think of wilma... at least in IR core appearance

[meteorologyman]

Did any models forecast her to stall and intensify???

[lbvbl]

so is there anything that anyone has noticed that could indicate a potential change in the track? (like speed, gustav, etc?)