TC Bertha

[kpost]

This may sound naive, but can a Hurricane Dora scenario happen, she started as a cape Verde and took a more southern route but the NHC has "120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 66.5W 70 KT" and that shares a common point with Dora, it is also the point when Dora decided to just turn left. i know she is a sept. storm, but can this happen and if not why?
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-dora-1964
their starting point Bertha -TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 22.7W AT 03/0900Z
Dora - lat. 13.1 lon. 22 w
Are very similar

[hurricanefloyd5]

I don't know if im seeing things but is BERTHA now taking a nw jog or is this a wobble????ANYONE??

[RL3AO]

I don't know if im seeing things but is BERTHA now taking a nw jog or is this a wobble????ANYONE??

I don't see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Normandy]

Bertha didn't take a NW jog, still moving just N of due west

[jaxfladude]

This may sound naive, but can a Hurricane Dora scenario happen, she started as a cape Verde and took a more southern route but the NHC has "120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 66.5W 70 KT" and that shares a common point with Dora, it is also the point when Dora decided to just turn left. i know she is a sept. storm, but can this happen and if not why?
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-dora-1964
their starting point Bertha -TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 22.7W AT 03/0900Z
Dora - lat. 13.1 lon. 22 w
Are very similar

A word to the wise...no Dora talk allowed....

[KWT]

Probably was just seeing the system become elongated to the NE which gives the impression of a more northerly vector then is actually the case.

[Aric Dunn]

Bertha didn't take a NW jog, still moving just N of due west

and you got the nw jog from where..

and its moving at 280 which by the was is an estimate. and 270 is due west.

besides the amount of latitude that 280 vs 270 still does not account for enough latitude that the models are saying should be occuring now

[hurricanefloyd5]

Bertha didn't take a NW jog, still moving just N of due west

ok tyvm I only asked because it is very very hard to pick out where the center is but I think I see it on the southern side of all the convection I think?????

[hial2]

A word to the wise...no Dora talk allowed....

I also saw the "A" hurricane mentioned earlier and that's also a no-no..we're running out of alphabet??..

[cheezyWXguy]

Bertha didn't take a NW jog, still moving just N of due west

ok tyvm I only asked because it is very very hard to pick out where the center is but I think I see it on the southern side of all the convection I think?????

nope...close to the center of the convection. Shear is picking up some, but its not very strong currently

[Aric Dunn]

well if bertha keeps this up eventually the models will have to respond and shift west again.. the recurve may still be there but it will happen farther west

[KWT]

Center is on the southern side of the convection but it is under the deep convection on the southern flank of the system IMO.

Aric, models have this at 285-290 now I think whilst truth is it probably is tracking a little more to the west then that, maybe a sign the models are not estimating the ridge's strength very well.

[Javlin]

Center is on the southern side of the convection but it is under the deep convection on the southern flank of the system IMO.

Aric, models have this at 285-290 now I think whilst truth is it probably is tracking a little more to the west then that, maybe a sign the models are not estimating the ridge's strength very well.

and standing back and looking gives that impression also here...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Movement of LLC still appears to be due west to me:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

Center is on the southern side of the convection but it is under the deep convection on the southern flank of the system IMO.

Aric, models have this at 285-290 now I think whilst truth is it probably is tracking a little more to the west then that, maybe a sign the models are not estimating the ridge's strength very well.

exactly my point.. all the models except the ukmet.. have it at at least 290 and its probably moving 275 or 280 like the nhc said it was ..

[vacanechaser]

Movement of LLC still appears to be due west to me:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

i would agree.. i think some are seeing the mid or upper level circulation firther north... you have to look down to the surface at the lower levels where you can see the center is still west and near the southern end of the convection.... still under it, but at the southen end..and looking closer, it looks like she will pass south of the next forecast point on the sat map...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

['CaneFreak]

i agree jesse...look at the motion of the fair weather cumulus 300 miles ahead of it...east to west

[cycloneye]

Jesse,you were right,look at the position from ssd:

06/1745 UTC 17.4N 46.4W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Aric Dunn]

Jesse,you were right,look at the position from ssd:

06/1745 UTC 17.4N 46.4W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

even better look at the last 12 hours.
06/1745 UTC 17.4N 46.4W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA
06/1145 UTC 17.3N 43.9W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA
06/0545 UTC 17.3N 42.0W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA


hardly even 280 . thats more like 275

and actually those are estimates anyway..

[Scorpion]

Not sure why the models are insisting so much on a recurve.. Bertha is hauling almost due west and has been for the past few days.