ATL: IKE Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Until the GFS can hold a cyclone, and a pretty good representation of one...I am not gonna buy the solution.

thanks for your input delta, gfs on hold until further notice folks, we have plenty of other data to work with until gfs gets back in the game

[KWT]

The fact that the models that have handled the supposed track of Ike the best thus far are trending back south suggests the NHC have to shift the track southwards a touch. The GFDL and ECM are better news because they would really weaken ike overland, probably would be borderline 1/2 if that happened with a messed up inner core...that is appearing the best bet at the momentf for preventing a cat-3/4 heading into South Florida...but its hardly ideal with cuba taking a big hit and S.Flordia still probably getting cat-2 conditions IF it restrengthens.

[MiamiensisWx]

The fact that the models that have handled the supposed track of Ike the best thus far are trending back south suggests the NHC have to shift the track southwards a touch. The GFDL and ECM are better news because they would really weaken ike overland, probably would be borderline 1/2 if that happened with a messed up inner core...that is appearing the best bet at the momentf for preventing a cat-3/4 heading into South Florida...but its hardly ideal with cuba taking a big hit and S.Flordia still probably getting cat-2 conditions IF it restrengthens.

...and this synopsis assumes that the TC will move over Cuba.

Regardless, as mentioned, it's early... we're well prepared (with a plethora of canned soups, First Aid, water, batteries, etc.), and we are filling our tanks tonight and tomorrow. We'll traverse the back roads if evacuation becomes an inevitable necessity in southeastern Florida.

[Air Force Met]

I totally agree if the GFS can't even see the intensity its not worth looking at right now. Other models that are based on GFS may not be worth it yet either. Recon will be out tomorrow and maybe we can get better data fed in.

That would be a mistake.

Again...and I've said it before...its not about what intensity the GFS is seeing...its about steering flow. Ike doesn't have to even be on the map to consult the GFS on steering...the break in the ridge...the high.

You guys have to stop looking at where the "model" of the day puts a storm and how strong it is. There is more to tropical forecasting than looking at the points on the map (where the hurricane will be).

Even though the GFS does not do well with Ike's initial intensity (so?)...it does do well initializing the high that will steer it. After all...isn't Ike's path going to be determined more by the high and the eventual break in the ridge than by his intensity? So...it seems that you cannot throw it out based completely on the fact it doesn't initialize Ike well (there isn't a lot of data in the open ocean...after all). You could even argue that a STRONGER Ike on the GFS would even mean MORE of a break in the ridge than it already shows.

So...if you have a problem with what the GFS is forecasting (and I do...I think the ridge is too weak and the break too far east)...have a problem with the whole thing. You can't throw it out because it doesn't see a Cat 4. The Cat 4 will be steered by the ridge and break in the ridge...and if that ridge and break are where the GFS is forecasting...it doesn't matter if the GFS sees a Cat 4...or a tropical wave...Ike will go into that break.

That requires forecasting...and not being a model reader.

[Ivanhater]

Until the GFS can hold a cyclone, and a pretty good representation of one...I am not gonna buy the solution.

Good point Chris...remember Gustav? For the longest time GFS refused to develop Gustav even when it was approaching hurricane strength and insisted on a Yucatan solution until it finally latched on and came around..you will see the models that do reflect Ike as it really is have it much further south...

[Air Force Met]

Until the GFS can hold a cyclone, and a pretty good representation of one...I am not gonna buy the solution.

thanks for your input delta, gfs on hold until further notice folks, we have plenty of other data to work with until gfs gets back in the game

Mets disagreeing here...see my post above.

Doesn't matter if it sees a cyclone or not if the ridge is where the GFS puts it in 90 hrs.

[MiamiensisWx]

I totally agree if the GFS can't even see the intensity its not worth looking at right now. Other models that are based on GFS may not be worth it yet either. Recon will be out tomorrow and maybe we can get better data fed in.

That would be a mistake.

Again...and I've said it before...its not about what intensity the GFS is seeing...its about steering flow. Ike doesn't have to even be on the map to consult the GFS on steering...the break in the ridge...the high.

You guys have to stop looking at where the "model" of the day puts a storm and how strong it is. There is more to tropical forecasting than looking at the points on the map (where the hurricane will be).

Even though the GFS does not do well with Ike's initial intensity (so?)...it does do well initializing the high that will steer it. After all...isn't Ike's path going to be determined more by the high and the eventual break in the ridge than by his intensity? So...it seems that you cannot throw it out based completely on the fact it doesn't initialize Ike well (there isn't a lot of data in the open ocean...after all). You could even argue that a STRONGER Ike on the GFS would even mean MORE of a break in the ridge than it already shows.

So...if you have a problem with what the GFS is forecasting (and I do...I think the ridge is too weak and the break too far east)...have a problem with the whole thing. You can't throw it out because it doesn't see a Cat 4. The Cat 4 will be steered by the ridge and break in the ridge...and if that ridge and break are where the GFS is forecasting...it doesn't matter if the GFS sees a Cat 4...or a tropical wave...Ike will go into that break.

That requires forecasting...and not being a model reader.

In other words, does your preliminary "best estimate" indicate a recurvature over the Florida peninsula from SSE to NNW (and eventually NE) as well?

[fasterdisaster]

I totally agree if the GFS can't even see the intensity its not worth looking at right now. Other models that are based on GFS may not be worth it yet either. Recon will be out tomorrow and maybe we can get better data fed in.

That would be a mistake.

Again...and I've said it before...its not about what intensity the GFS is seeing...its about steering flow. Ike doesn't have to even be on the map to consult the GFS on steering...the break in the ridge...the high.

You guys have to stop looking at where the "model" of the day puts a storm and how strong it is. There is more to tropical forecasting than looking at the points on the map (where the hurricane will be).

Even though the GFS does not do well with Ike's initial intensity (so?)...it does do well initializing the high that will steer it. After all...isn't Ike's path going to be determined more by the high and the eventual break in the ridge than by his intensity? So...it seems that you cannot throw it out based completely on the fact it doesn't initialize Ike well (there isn't a lot of data in the open ocean...after all). You could even argue that a STRONGER Ike on the GFS would even mean MORE of a break in the ridge than it already shows.

So...if you have a problem with what the GFS is forecasting (and I do...I think the ridge is too weak and the break too far east)...have a problem with the whole thing. You can't throw it out because it doesn't see a Cat 4. The Cat 4 will be steered by the ridge and break in the ridge...and if that ridge and break are where the GFS is forecasting...it doesn't matter if the GFS sees a Cat 4...or a tropical wave...Ike will go into that break.

That requires forecasting...and not being a model reader.

Well like Derek said Ike will move further south and west the stronger he is, so it's true that the GFS is pretty suspect right now.

[canetracker]

The NW quad is getting squashed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

BTW: Thanks AFM for your explanation of the GFS. I always appreaciate your opinion.

[jlauderdal]

Mayfield summary from channel 10 miami special report 8 pm Thursday.


trent aric(chief met) starts off with a summary of ike, max explains the cone and says high building in driving it west and all Bahamas pay attention, we shouldn't be surprised if it goes anywhere in the cone but nhc was really good with gustuv mayfield says, max states 3 day track very confident but the 5 day is very reasonable, he is surprised the hurricane looks so good based on the shear setup, max says weakening likely but it will get stronger nearing the Bahamas, he talks about model consensus aiming at se florida but nogaps does bend it away from sofla

i

[Air Force Met]

In other words, does your preliminary "best estimate" indicate a recurvature over the Florida peninsula from SSE to NNW (and eventually NE) as well?

I've been saying a Floyd like track...give or take 100 miles (and that was when the NHC had it moving due west south of Fl). Right now...I would say its a better bet it will be on the left side of that track closer to the FL pen. It could boil down to a matter of 3-6 hrs moving further west before it turns...thats how close it will be.

[deltadog03]

Until the GFS can hold a cyclone, and a pretty good representation of one...I am not gonna buy the solution.

thanks for your input delta, gfs on hold until further notice folks, we have plenty of other data to work with until gfs gets back in the game

Mets disagreeing here...see my post above.

Doesn't matter if it sees a cyclone or not if the ridge is where the GFS puts it in 90 hrs.

LOL...We can't dissagree...haha I def. see your point and its the correct one. I also do believe that the GFS is breaking down that ridge too quickly. (again as you said model bias) I would like to see it hold a cyclone better though. Its prolly not significant, but just, I guess for my confidence in a model that dosn't really represent a well defined cyclone its hard to trust into it.

[KWT]

Air Force Met, I agree you can use the GFS for its set-up and not just for the actual track, thats the best way to use it, look at the 500 and 300mbs charts and look at the upper features, would give you a good idea of whats happening I suppose.

MiamiensisWx, yes of course does depend on that happening, but it was all hypothetical on the GFDL run, not saying its going to happen but theres an increasing chance that at the very least its going to come close to Cuba based on the way the models have shifted SW today.

[Air Force Met]

Well like Derek said Ike will move further south and west the stronger he is, so it's true that the GFS is pretty suspect right now.

I disagree with that. A stronger storm will feel any breaks that happen to be there more than a weaker storm will. Its more into the vertical. Steering for a hurricane is all the way up to 300mb level (and I would argue a little higher)...whereas a weak TS or TD is steered by low levels.

In 4 days...there is still ridging to the north at 850...but the 300 and 500 shows it is wide open. A weak storm could move further south and west under that ridge...not a stronger one...it will get steered by the deeper flow...and that deeper flow has a break.

Its like this for every storm. Stronger storms don't go more south and west...they are steered that way by something. They don't do it because that is their nature. Their nature is to want to go to the poles. They look for any break they can find...and when you are stronger...its a lot easier to find them.

[mel38]

can i just say all you pro mets please understand we value your opinion. i have so much more knowledge of how these things work because of you. storm2k rocks!!! plz keep the info coming. my family now is asking me what everyone here is saying.thanks mel

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well like Derek said Ike will move further south and west the stronger he is, so it's true that the GFS is pretty suspect right now.

I disagree with that. A stronger storm will feel any breaks that happen to be there more than a weaker storm will. Its more into the vertical. Steering for a hurricane is all the way up to 300mb level (and I would argue a little higher)...whereas a weak TS or TD is steered by low levels.

In 4 days...there is still ridging to the north at 850...but the 300 and 500 shows it is wide open. A weak storm could move further south and west under that ridge...not a stronger one...it will get steered by the deeper flow...and that deeper flow has a break.

Its like this for every storm. Stronger storms don't go more south and west...they are steered that way by something. They don't do it because that is their nature. Their nature is to want to go to the poles. They look for any break they can find...and when you are stronger...its a lot easier to find them.

You buy these Massive Cuba Dips the GFDL and HWRF been advertising AFM?

[KWT]

AFM, i think Derek was talking about the fact the high is stronger at the upper levels, therefore the system will dive WSW more then a weak system, the BAM suite does sort of agree with that point...

a deeper system would in theory have a more amplified track i'd guess.

[fasterdisaster]

Satellite presentation really still not deteriorating.

Eventually Ike will go into an ERC though so much remains in doubt.

[HurricaneQueen]

In other words, does your preliminary "best estimate" indicate a recurvature over the Florida peninsula from SSE to NNW (and eventually NE) as well?

I've been saying a Floyd like track...give or take 100 miles (and that was when the NHC had it moving due west south of Fl). Right now...I would say its a better bet it will be on the left side of that track closer to the FL pen. It could boil down to a matter of 3-6 hrs moving further west before it turns...thats how close it will be.

Thanks for all of your input, AFM. I value your opinions very highly. This scenario certainly makes evacuation plans a crap shoot. Guess we'll know more in a couple of days but will that be too late to get hotel reservations and mean traveling in very congested conditions? MiamiensisWX, maybe we'll see you on the back roads. LOL.

Lynn

[fasterdisaster]

Well like Derek said Ike will move further south and west the stronger he is, so it's true that the GFS is pretty suspect right now.

I disagree with that. A stronger storm will feel any breaks that happen to be there more than a weaker storm will. Its more into the vertical. Steering for a hurricane is all the way up to 300mb level (and I would argue a little higher)...whereas a weak TS or TD is steered by low levels.

In 4 days...there is still ridging to the north at 850...but the 300 and 500 shows it is wide open. A weak storm could move further south and west under that ridge...not a stronger one...it will get steered by the deeper flow...and that deeper flow has a break.

Its like this for every storm. Stronger storms don't go more south and west...they are steered that way by something. They don't do it because that is their nature. Their nature is to want to go to the poles. They look for any break they can find...and when you are stronger...its a lot easier to find them.

You're definitely right about that, but I think his post had something about synoptics leaning toward south and west. I can't recall what and don't know where the post is, but if someone wanted to find it more power to them.