ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

Now see in my opinion I think we're looking at another complete collapse. Even the new convection south of the low pressure area is collapsing.

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

Folks,
We now can finally say we have a developing system. Organization the last few hours is l underway.

I've been burned before, but this is looking better by the frame.

I agree 92L looks good rate now, but we were all saying the same thing yesterday about this time and then the convection dissipated. 92l has to make it through the night and maintain the convection. I still see alot of clouds being blown off to the W of 92L, so the shear seems to still be there. If the convection is there tomorrow morning, then we have something, IMO.

[canetracker]

Just found this Carbbean buoy site in my favorites but thought it may come in useful when tracking 92L:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

[gatorcane]

Accuweather wasting no time as usual showing a hook up into the general vicinity of Southern FL

[KWT]

I do agree tolakram though its taking a little longer this time around, I do think this bursting process is still allowing slow development, next big burst may be the one.

[Blown Away]

Got to love Accuweather, not wanting to commit to a SFL landfall, just twist the arrow point a little.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Now see in my opinion I think we're looking at another complete collapse. Even the new convection sound of the low pressure area is collapsing.

I have to agree. Cloud tops are warming and the weak circulation still appears to be displaced S.W. of the remaining convection

[Blown Away]

Where is the approximate lat/long of the circulation rate now?

[Meso]

Remember it's not expected to develop right away, all it has to do is maintain itself for the next few days and if it manages to get into the better atmospheric conditions while remaining alive, then things should really develop. This storm is completely bipolar though, one second it's void of convection and people call it dead, the next it's got a large blow up and looking healthy

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Accuweather track looks pretty good, IMO. If I had to make a track for 92L right now, mine would be very similar, including the timeframes. Somewhere in the Northern Bahamas by Monday morning sounds about right to me.

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[artist]

right now its over all structure looks better than it ever has , other than maybe in the very beginning, in my amateur opinion.

[tolakram]

The visible doesn't look bad, and the loop reveals some kind of, um, movement swirl thingy (highly technical term) in the vicinity of the convection ... but what that means I can not say.



Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Vortex]

on the last visible at 20:15 notice the feathery texture to the clouds on the NW side..Often this occurs when a favorable upper-air environment exists...with this development a more symetrical system to come over the next few hours with the strong potential for deeper convection near the developing LLC overnight.

[gatorcane]

Remember it's not expected to develop right away, all it has to do is maintain itself for the next few days and if it manages to get into the better atmospheric conditions while remaining alive, then things should really develop. This storm is completely bipolar though, one second it's void of convection and people call it dead, the next it's got a large blow up and looking healthy

That's the key point here. Don't look for anything to organize very quickly quite yet, it may take another 48 hours before cyclonegenesis actually officially happens but since the environment appears very favorable in the long-term and models are generally pointing it at the SE US and Bahamas, it needs to be closely watched.

[tolakram]

I love the evening visibles.

[HURAKAN]

With this system is better to stay back and watch what happens. Images can be deceiving.

[gatorcane]

Look at all the WSW winds across Southern FL --- shows the H5 ridge (Bermuda High) has not quite built in yet off the EC and troughiness is dominating the EC still.

It's a little hard to believe the pattern will just change to open up the door to anything tropical from the East but most of the models are in good agreement of it changing over the next few days.

W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 92 70 48 W12G20 29.89F HX 97
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 93 67 42 SW14G22 29.90F HX 96
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 94 67 41 SW10G20 29.90F HX 97
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13 29.90F HX 97
PEMBROKE PINES MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13G21 29.93F HX 97
OPA LOCKA SUNNY 93 66 40 SW13G20 29.92F HX 96
MIAMI PTSUNNY 93 69 45 SW13 29.92F HX 98
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 91 70 49 W13 29.92F HX 96
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 91 76 61 SW12G17 29.93F HX 102

[Blown Away]

Nice summary again from Jeff Master's regarding the steering patterns.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[Aric Dunn]

center of the picture ... another burst starting ... right where we want convection to start firing





http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1