ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[meteorologyman]

Thankyou cpdman

holly molly what big blob Hanna is.

[CourierPR]

Shouldn't the latest image be 06:15 UTC and not 3:45?

[cpdaman]

it is 615 click refresh on the link

995 millibars to THE SOUTH of the center confirmed here

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

look out below hanna is deepening

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html or closer view

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

would appear center is well north near 23.5 / 72.2 or so of the 995 mb reading

[Hockey007]

Yes, and if you are using NASA's CONUS view then it's actually at 6:45 right now is the latest update

[CourierPR]

I thought NHC said Hanna should not intensify.

[NC George]

From a climatological perspective, the NHC track doesn't seem right to me. A storms where Hanna is, at this time of year, usually either wants to hit the Outer Banks/NC coast, or continue on into S. FL, from about Palm Bay S to the Keys......not coastal GA up to the GA/SC line. I don't think I place much faith in this in between scenario.

I'm thinking the same thing. My initial guess on seeing this forecast track is an actual track passing just offshore of Cape Hatteras.

[KWT]

Still looks like its getting pretty sheared but there is explosive convection near the LLC still which is probably why the pressure is dropping away.

[cpdaman]

I thought NHC said Hanna should not intensify.

there was lot's of uncertainty due to the varying amount of shear in the position she was in.

pressure 994.8 in turks /caicos (providencialas)

[KWT]

Yeah these sheared systems sometimes aren't very easy to forecast, at the moment the convection seems to be very close to the center of Hanna but who is to say how long that will last.

[Normandy]

If that pressure is right Hanna is likely a bit more intense than the NHC indicates right now, probably low 990s at least.

[KWT]

Quite possible yes Normandy, the pressure is a little lower than I was expecting but we shall see, we need recon back in!

[Normandy]

Knowing the gradient of such systems, it might even be below 990. It has some extremely explosive convection right now.

[Hockey007]

Wait, I'm confused, has the LLC relocated itself underneath the convection? Because the tropical forecast pts are nowhere near the convection and if it has been deepening like it has I assume that the LLC is somewhere underneath the blob. Thanks.

[KWT]

Hockey007, any LLC is just on the western side of the deep convection I'd guess, not bad looking system now,shear still going to be an issue till Gustav really winds down inland and evn then will take a little while for the outflow from the system to reduce but I think ther eis a chance providing Hanna doesn't move too fast for it to strengthen in a better condusive atmosphere around 72hrs time.

[cpdaman]

check out this site

NO eclipse on this site

loop thru 810 utc

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... e&itype=ir

thanks to poster who had pic off this site earlier

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now I been paying attention to Gustav all night, but looking at a stall satellite pic and seeing that the pressure is in the low 990s, has me to believe this this maybe a nearly a 60 knot tropical storm with a pressure near 989-992 millibars.

[KWT]

It may well be a decent strength TS now, I think if it can hold its convective apperence (BIG IF) then recon could well find a 55kt TS but its all if and buts still.

[HURAKAN]

RECON will give us the true intensity.

[KWT]

Really need the vis imagery to get a true idea of where the LLC actually is.

[jlauderdal]

Really need the vis imagery to get a true idea of where the LLC actually is.

or recon