ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[dwg71]

there have been very few models showing a storm hitting houston, maybe se la, or an odd ball going straight to corpus. Nola has had models showing landfall near it for 36 hours now

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO...just west of NOLA? (help me on this one guys)..Looks to be nearly the same run and notice Hanna next Saturday @ NOLA...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082900!!/

[dwg71]

hard to tell, but definately looks that way.

[Scorpion]

Incredible that the Euro is showing the doomsday scenario again.

[KWT]

Interesting to see that a fair few global models bend this back west at the last moment, GFS does it overland but UKMO and Nogaps do it whilst its over water. Very interesting.

[deltadog03]

Hmm...GFDL, HWRF, and GFS were further east this run...Its gonna come down to how strong and where that ridge in the upper great lakes decides to set up shop. The ridge east of florida will be near to nothing at that time.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Cannot believe the hurricane center is still so far west. They are on the western edge of the 00z models, which seem to again point to a NOLA hit. NHC can't afford to play cute here.

[KWT]

The thing is a lot of the models are showing that westward shift close to 96hrs, UKMO, NOGAPS, GFS (though by that time its made landfall) to name a few and its a little too much to totally ignore. Hence why the NHC have it going WNW towards the end of the time period.

[Sabanic]

Some tense days ahead based on what we are seeing with these models for sure.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z gfs kills NO again

[Portastorm]

Well, we're now going on Day 3 where clearly the model consensus remains La, and specifically, SE La (i.e. NOLA area). Gustav starting to now get away from land and modeling should become clearer with that element along with the upper-air data from the NOAA jet mission today.

I dunno, hard to argue with almost 3 straight days of consensus. I think Gus is a Louisiana storm. There I said it! Unofficially, of course.

[KWT]

Well most models do suggest that, the only uncertainty however is whether the high pressure develops quickly or not, could still be a Texas storm if it builds in quickly. Equally if it stays weak and this turns NW sooner then further east could be back in the game.

[Stratosphere747]

Well, we're now going on Day 3 where clearly the model consensus remains La, and specifically, SE La (i.e. NOLA area). Gustav starting to now get away from land and modeling should become clearer with that element along with the upper-air data from the NOAA jet mission today.

I dunno, hard to argue with almost 3 straight days of consensus. I think Gus is a Louisiana storm. There I said it! Unofficially, of course.

Not to fast Porta. Some important global models shifted W.

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/8822/al072008jk2.png

[Stormcenter]

No offense to anyone but as I've said many time before these guys have been doing this way longer then any of you this board so isn't kind of silly to keep on questioning every new advisory if does fit your thinking? The models you mentioned have been shifting around all week and I bet they keep on doing it until Gustav "finally" gets in the GOM.

[caneman]

No offense to anyone but as I've said many time before these guys have been doing this way longer then any of you this board so isn't kind of silly to keep on questioning every new advisory if does fit your thinking? The models you mentioned have been shifting around all week and I bet they keep on doing it until Gustav "finally" gets in the GOM.

Uhmm, I think that is what this board is all about. Now, I agree if you see someone from a certain location huggin a model that takes the storm to their hometown.

[TideJoe]

No offense to anyone but as I've said many time before these guys have been doing this way longer then any of you this board so isn't kind of silly to keep on questioning every new advisory if does fit your thinking? The models you mentioned have been shifting around all week and I bet they keep on doing it until Gustav "finally" gets in the GOM.

Uhmm, I think that is what this board is all about. Now, I agree if you see someone from a certain location huggin a model that takes the storm to their hometown.

And there's a TON of that going on.

[cpdaman]

NHC talks about a possible short term NNW motion as gustav approaches caymans? hmmm

in response to the digging trough /retreating high over florida hmm

and much uncertainty as to when the bermuda high ridge will build back in enough west to steer her NW or WNW again. florida keys -tampa don't give up on this one

[KWT]

Its really only the GFS based models that are suggesting that cpdaman , though ECM does track it across Cuba as well I think.

[Sihara]

NHC talks about a possible short term NNW motion as gustav approaches caymans? hmmm

in response to the digging trough /retreating high over florida hmm

and much uncertainty as to when the bermuda high ridge will build back in enough west to steer her NW or WNW again. florida keys -tampa don't give up on this one

Errr - with all due respect, cpdaman, I would like to "give up on this one." don't want it anywhere near here. No offense to anyone else - I wouldn't wish Gustav on anyone (Hanna either).

[cpdaman]

Its really only the GFS based models that are suggesting that cpdaman , though ECM does track it across Cuba as well I think.

with all respect the current conditions suggest the trough is deeper and further south than progged by models ( are you saying just the gfs) i think it was pretty much all models......how that effects things i don't know (exactly) but more shear in the s. GOM appears possible as well as a intitial short term track shift to the east and then later (who knows depending on when the ridge builds in ) again this is based on the current condtions trough / being underforecast in the GOM

i don't live on the gulf side of florida or NO i am not -removed- this to go anywhere, just calling it like i see it