ATL: IKE Discussion

[meteorologyman]

Thankyou you cycloneyethe man

[Evil Jeremy]

One of the good things with Ike is that everyone that I know is already aware of this threat, while some people are not normally aware until the media starts hyping. I credit this to people checking up on Hanna and noticing Ike.

If the cone and models stay the way they are through the 5 AM and 11 AM advisories, I am going to go into heavy preparations. We could be looking at the worst thing since Andrew to come in on Florida's South East coast.

[Just Joshing You]

What is the highest Dvorak reading for a storm? I know 8.0 on the scale, but I'm sure some storms have showed higher numbers.

[jlauderdal]

Just so people are clear Ike's size will probably increase eventually from ERC(s).

max mayfield also mentioned an increase in size down the road, bigger in size than andrew but that does not mean bigger intensity

[Lowpressure]

One of the good things with Ike is that everyone that I know is already aware of this threat, while some people are not normally aware until the media starts hyping. I credit this to people checking up on Hanna and noticing Ike.

If the cone and models stay the way they are through the 5 AM and 11 AM advisories, I am going to go into heavy preparations. We could be looking at the worst thing since Andrew to come in on Florida's South East coast.

Good post. If things do not change a lot between now and 11 am tomorrow. I would think some action plans start to go into action. Timelines, would it look like a Sunday am evac in your opinion?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Again...and I've said it before...its not about what intensity the GFS is seeing...its about steering flow.

Yep, its no good to chuck out a global model that provides the synoptic data for a bunch of others. GFDL doesn't look to GFS to see where the cyclone is (am I right?) its the environment that it looks for.

[Bocadude85]

One of the good things with Ike is that everyone that I know is already aware of this threat, while some people are not normally aware until the media starts hyping. I credit this to people checking up on Hanna and noticing Ike.

If the cone and models stay the way they are through the 5 AM and 11 AM advisories, I am going to go into heavy preparations. We could be looking at the worst thing since Andrew to come in on Florida's South East coast.

Good post. If things do not change a lot between now and 11 am tomorrow. I would think some action plans start to go into action. Timelines, would it look like a Sunday am evac in your opinion?

Director of emergency mangment for broward county said if nhc track is perfect evacs would begin monday

[Evil Jeremy]

One of the good things with Ike is that everyone that I know is already aware of this threat, while some people are not normally aware until the media starts hyping. I credit this to people checking up on Hanna and noticing Ike.

If the cone and models stay the way they are through the 5 AM and 11 AM advisories, I am going to go into heavy preparations. We could be looking at the worst thing since Andrew to come in on Florida's South East coast.

Good post. If things do not change a lot between now and 11 am tomorrow. I would think some action plans start to go into action. Timelines, would it look like a Sunday am evac in your opinion?

I would expect evacs to take place over this weekend if things keep up. The coastal areas first of course, followed by those inland. I would say that everyone East of the Intracoastal should prepare to leave, and people close to it on the other side.

[MHurricanes]

Again...and I've said it before...its not about what intensity the GFS is seeing...its about steering flow.

Yep, its no good to chuck out a global model that provides the synoptic data for a bunch of others. GFDL doesn't look to GFS to see where the cyclone is (am I right?) its the environment that it looks for.

Just saw the 5 o'clock track. Wow, not good. Let's see the 11'oclock. Will Ike do a number on Florida or will it curve? Very interesting?

[Scorpion]

If you don't live on the water or a mobile home I think its unnecessary to evacuate.

[sphelps8681]

From a previous post great read on models.

viewtopic.php?p=1330638#1330638

[Bocadude85]

everyone east of US 1 is evacuated for cat 3 and up

[jenshops]

When do you think they will have a good idea of where this storm is going? I live on the W.coast of Fl,s.of Sarasota, so I'm not too concerned now but would like to know what day will be best to know what effects if any will be over here. Also curious if anyone knows what and where the effects of Andrew were on the west coast of Fl.

[AZRainman]

What is the highest Dvorak reading for a storm? I know 8.0 on the scale, but I'm sure some storms have showed higher numbers.

[Bocadude85]

When do you think they will have a good idea of where this storm is going? I live on the W.coast of Fl,s.of Sarasota, so I'm not too concerned now but would like to know what day will be best to know what effects if any will be over here. Also curious if anyone knows what and where the effects of Andrew were on the west coast of Fl.

worst effects of andrew on the west coast was the naples-marco island area

[Nimbus]

Ike is rolling west early again, the same way he did last night.

I like AFM's ridge analysis if it means Ike could slow down enough to get picked up by a trough.

That almost happened with Hanna except for the trough split. As others have noted before you get too concerned with the SEFL strike scenario you have to consider those early Hanna model runs that showed her barreling into Miami as a cat4.

It does look reasonable for Ike to stall out in the Bahamas if the ridge doesn't build in behind Hanna fast enough.

This is like shooting pool, if you can't make the double bank shot leave it on the rail.

[sprink52]

One of the good things with Ike is that everyone that I know is already aware of this threat, while some people are not normally aware until the media starts hyping. I credit this to people checking up on Hanna and noticing Ike.

If the cone and models stay the way they are through the 5 AM and 11 AM advisories, I am going to go into heavy preparations. We could be looking at the worst thing since Andrew to come in on Florida's South East coast.

I agree on the heavy preparations. I think also that we are better prepared as a community than we were 3~4 years ago. We are 12 miles inland and will stay for a strong 3 or weak 4....beyond that, I will shutter up, load up and head north. I will then come back and clean up.

I survived Andrew in the Redlands on Roberts Road in '92 so I know what a bad aftermath can be...but I was a younger man then and single. I have responsibilities now and don't want to risk 150+ MPH winds and the destruction that is caused by that level of storm.

Be keenly aware of the progress of Ike and govern yourselves accordingly.

[cpdaman]

everyone east of US 1 is evacuated for cat 3 and up

right , otherwise if i stay i will have to swim across the intracoastal until they put the bridges back down.

i have a question to the pro's, especially derek about storm surge in SE florida . Boca raton to be specific, do you think given the right angle a storm surge (of say a cat 3) will easily come across AIA about 600 yards with a depth of more than a foot or two. i say this because i wasn't sure since Se florida is known to have lower storm surges due to water depth and perhaps land (fetch interference) from the bahamas, so the big swells can't hit from an east direction.

[beaufort12]

If you don't live on the water or a mobile home I think its unnecessary to evacuate.

this ranks right up at the top for the worst advice i have ever seen on this site. my parents lived west of US1 in cutler ridge in a single detached home. that home was gone afte andrew. just because you are on land and not in a mobile home is no guarantee of safety.

[miamijaaz]

If you don't live on the water or a mobile home I think its unnecessary to evacuate.

Well, not everyone inland Miami-Dade/Broward has shutters or impact windows, believe it or not. If a cat 4 or higher were headed my way and me and my family lived inland in an old home w/o shutters or impact windows, I'd hit the road.