ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[deltadog03]

I see that ridge your talking about wxman. This summer in the SE has been a strange one so far. I mean, there has been only a couple of really hot days, as the ridge has not really set in. Thankfully we have seen some rain here in the SE. I guess my point is, that ridge thats been forecasted to sit over the SE has never really held up at all. Its mostly been stuck just east of the SE coast. So, I guess we shall see what happens.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN,that small yellow dot is where the low center is?

To tell you the truth, I don't know what it's.

[GeneratorPower]

July may be a bit busy this year...or normal....or slow...you pick

Meaningless post award for July goes to......jaxfladude!

[RL3AO]

HURAKAN,that small yellow dot is where the low center is?

Looks about right.

AL, 94, 2008071318, , BEST, 0, 93N, 382W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[KWT]

What will be interesting is how it tracks in the enxt 72hrs, before the USA we need to really watch for the Windward Islands and also the Ne Caribbean because there does look to be a real threat for them, unlike Bertha which always looked too far north. Indeed I think this may challenge Dean's top place position but early days for that.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN,that small yellow dot is where the low center is?

Looks about right.

AL, 94, 2008071318, , BEST, 0, 93N, 382W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Now that I look closely, it makes sense.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

July may be a bit busy this year...or normal....or slow...you pick

Meaningless post award for July goes to......jaxfladude!

I agree. I welcome jaxfladude to discuse track and future strength with us. You can do it!

[RL3AO]

If it develops, than yes it will. If it becomes a hurricane before the island, it could go top 5.

[KWT]

Yeah that seems about right according to that piece of data.

Cycloneye, I've got a sneaky feeling if this can last a while and become fairly strong then this has got a real chance of getting into the top 3, maybe even challenge Dean...who knows!

[jaxfladude]

July may be a bit busy this year...or normal....or slow...you pick

Meaningless post award for July goes to......jaxfladude!

I agree. I welcome jaxfladude to discus track and future strength with us. You can do it!

Hey just helping this thread to get as many pages a possible....
Okay, as far as track goes, this is a "watch out" for somebody , hopefully not too strong down the road..... may be the first real threat to the Islands and/or the CONUS of the season....Tropical Storm Arthur (2008) was a freakish combo of events as it hit the Yucatan and it was just barely a TS at that.....

[KWT]

Agreed jaxfladude, problem is unless it can pick up some decent latitude sooner rather then later then the threat to the Eastern Caribbean Islands increase more and more and so we need to watch this very closely...at least it means we should get more recon!

[weatherguru18]

The Euro loses it apparently over Hispaniola. Doesn't survive the trip over the mountains. That would indicate a pretty weak system no?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092612!!/

The GFS, as previously mentioned, moves this system off to the east of Florida...I think. If you look at the operational and ensemble gfs, there are two blobs of moisture. If you look early in the sequence, you can see the first blob go up the east coast. Is that the invest??

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSP ... sloop.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

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The system is looking very good this afternoon, but it appears to have some eastly shear of 10-15 knots as it is within the the itcz. This should keep the system weak for the next 24-36 hours intil it moves more northward outside of it, on the other hand the system has good low level convergence and divergence at the upper levels. This favorables some development with this system and a LLC. I would watch for a slow development into a depression with in the next 24-36 hours...

As for track, I believe the models could be seeing the weakness from Bertha, also its trough. We will have to see. If the ridge builds in stronger as I think it will.

So something to watch...

[KWT]

Agreed Matt, I wouldn't like to make a call on track just yet until the center becomes established because if it forms further north then progged it will make a difference.

weahterguru, yep it does takee the system further west into Hispaniola then takes it very slowly off to the NW barely as a disturbance. Still it weakens the system before landfall and so we will have to wait and see, I recall it also did the same with Bertha as well.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather's thinking.

[KWT]

Nothing wrong with Accuweather thinking, though I think the center will form further north around 10N, thats where I've been thinking something would form for the last few days.

[jinftl]

Based on the tone of the posts, development is a sure thing...when things start heating up in the tropics, the same happens here

July may be a bit busy this year...or normal....or slow...you pick

Meaningless post award for July goes to......jaxfladude!

I agree. I welcome jaxfladude to discuse track and future strength with us. You can do it!

[gatorcane]

Well Accuweather does have the steering current correct, at least in my opinion. I don't see any escape path for 94L to the north unfortunately. The question is will it develop? Models are in general agreement of a W to WNW movement of this area for the next several days.

[Weatherfreak000]

Lol at Accuweather's pictures.


You mean the storm could go anywhere from the W Gulf to the W. Atlantic? And the Caribbean has very warm waters?


STOP the presses. They are on to something HUGE.

[gatorcane]

Believe it or not, I was just looking at TVs in a retail store in Broward County -- as the sales person was flipping through the channels, one of the local channels was showing the area of disturbed weather that we may need to start watching here.

It's early for the media to be speculating in South Florida but given where it is trying to form and the general direction models take it, that may be why they are on to this one earlier than usual.

Both GFS and European are forecasting a stationary ridge over Florida and the NE Gulf in the 7-10 day time frame. That would seem to indicate that it would be hard for a storm to head toward Florida, and it points to the GFDL/HWRF solution of a NE Caribbean threat then a turn northward east of Florida. A tad early to be too confident in that 10 day location, though.

Looks like it's well on its way this afternoon to becoming a TD on Tuesday. I think tomorrow may be too soon.

Yeah its early to speculate on path but its unfortunate that we are only in mid July and we have to track and be somewhat concerned over something in a region of the Atlantic that usually doesn't crank up until mid August at the earliest.

Wxman it would be interesting to show members historical tracks around the area where 94L may develop. I think not as many tend to "recurve" in this part of the Atlantic.