canegrl04 wrote:I had just about given this thing up,but on CNN awhile ago they actually mentioned it so I guess that means its still got a good chance of becoming a named storm. If it doesn't wind up crashing into Mexico ,looks like a threat down the road to Florida or the GOM states
I gave my reasons, based on GFS, Canadian and Euro predicted 500 mb heights, on the main 94L thread but I expect a Charley like path, although which side of the Florida Peninsula this comes out on after crossing Cuba, it is ahrd to tell. Probably a threat anywhere from near Pensacola to Hatteras, if it stays away from Hispaniola.
Won't strengthen much in Eastern Caribbean due to fast low level flow due Equatorial heat low, and will have limited time to gain strength before the islands, so wind will be less a factor in Lesser Antilles than rain. Once past about 75ºW in the Caribbean, as it gets further from South America, it could start gaining strength again.
If it doesn't cross Cuba with too oblique an angle, minimizing time over land, it shouldn't weaken too much.
Of course, this is an amateur forecast, highly unprofessional, not endorsed in any way by Storm2K, or the US Olympic Committee.
