H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[RL3AO]

i knew the reading was at 500 ft, but i didn't think the difference would be as much as 18 mb

The actual air pressure in places like Denver is around 850mb or so.

[sealbach]

even for Denver that's low

[senorpepr]

even for Denver that's low

Not really. Standard pressure for 5,000ft MSL is 850mb. Matter of fact, Denver's current SLP is 1010.8mb, but their station pressure is actually 835mb.

[sealbach]

i guess i don't understand the difference between the 850 reading and the 1010 becuse when I check the weather there the reading shows 1010mb

[senorpepr]

i guess i don't understand the difference between the 850 reading and the 1010 becuse when I check the weather there the reading shows 1010mb

The 1010 hPa is nothing more than a calculated adjustment for sea-level pressure.

835 hPa is the true reading, but is rarely publicly reported. SLP is reported to give all locations an equal playing field. (It allows for highs and lows to be determined).

Matter of fact, it would be practically impossible for the station pressure in Denver to be 1010 hPa. That would yield a SLP reading of over 35 in/mg. (Highest ever recorded was 32.01")

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on how this was looking this morning, I was expecting more from recon than what is actually there. The 30-ish knot winds were at altitude and far from the center.


I was pretty sure this would be upgraded a few hours ago. Now I'd say less than 50/50 this is called a depression.


Maybe tomorrow.

Bad for Central America, good for Texas. The later it organizes, the less chance it has to come up into our part of the world.

[senorpepr]

i guess i don't understand the difference between the 850 reading and the 1010 becuse when I check the weather there the reading shows 1010mb

Here's a calculator I found that will convert adjusted SLP to actual station pressure.

http://www.csgnetwork.com/stationpressurecalc.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon has no West winds of note, and they are close to the coast. Looking at NW Venezuelan coast and Eastern Colombian coast, along with Curacoa and Bonaire, most have Easterly or Southeasterly winds, I forget whether it was Coro or Maracaibo that was calm.


Just on that, 94L was better organized yesterday, when it was a loose area of low pressure with a broad but closed low. Now it is apparently just a sharp and convectively active wave.

[sealbach]

thanks for the explanation and link

[Frank2]

Ed,

Now it is apparently just a sharp and convectively active wave.

Si - that's what it seemed to look like earlier...

Looks like another red herring...

[cycloneye]

In summary,did they found any west winds at all?

[Stratosphere747]

That was a rather quick mission...

[senorpepr]

In summary,did they found any west winds at all?

[senorpepr]

That was a rather quick mission...

No point in wasting fuel and manpower looking for something that isn't there, I suppose...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon found nothing, but based on the satellite appearance around 9 am this morning, I think not cancelling the plane was a good call. Better to send a plane and find no closed low, then not send a plane into a 40 knot storm and be a day behind the curve on forecasts.

[senorpepr]

Recon found nothing, but based on the satellite appearance around 9 am this morning, I think not cancelling the plane was a good call. Better to send a plane and find no closed low, then not send a plane into a 40 knot storm and be a day behind the curve on forecasts.

I fully agree. If I was in there shoes, I don't see myself doing anything differently.

[sgastorm]

I'm wondering if the aircraft had a problem and they had to leave early. Recon was scheduled to be in the area until 2030Z.

[senorpepr]

I'm wondering if the aircraft had a problem and they had to leave early. Recon was scheduled to be in the area until 2030Z.

I doubt it. Judging from the track, they probably got all they need to know--it's an open wave.

[Derek Ortt]

recon was valuable today

it showed that the low has dissipated when satellite was indicating that it had become better organized

[CrazyC83]

I agree, this is certainly not a tropical cyclone by any means. IMO, 96L has a far better chance of developing.