ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

Whew!!...Boss changed mind....!!! Thank goodness.....Stay safe all....

Possible Cat 1 dropping 4 to 8 inches of rain, maybe more. (Based on 0Z GFDL) It would have been an ugly commute

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Very organized system. I think there is likely a debate in the NHC whether to upgrade TD 15 to tropical storm now or wait for RECON.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 14:19:46 N Lon : 69:03:29 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.1mb/ 63.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 4.1 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Center Temp : -78.6C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Gustywind]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 14:19:46 N Lon : 69:03:29 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 990.1mb/ 63.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 4.1 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.7mb

Center Temp : -78.6C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

what does it mean, can you explain please?

[HURAKAN]

what does it mean, can you explain please?

It means that solely based on the structure that the system portreys at the moment it's being analyzed as being close to hurricane status. RECON should give us a better idea of what the real intensity is.

[Ed Mahmoud]

An computer algorithm of the Dvorak technique thinks 15L is almost a hurricane...

That isn't an analysis done by an actual expert, it is done by a computer.

[HURAKAN]

306
WTNT25 KNHC 141441
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008


NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

Hummm tkanks a lot, waouw going from TD to hurricane cat 1 in 4 hours?..

[Gustywind]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 13:49 GMT le 14 octobre 2008 — Last Comment: 14:42 GMT le 14 octobre 2008
Tropical Storm Omar on the way
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:47 AM EDT on October 14, 2008

Tropical Depression Fifteen is lashing northern Columbia, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao with heavy rains today, as the storm drifts to the southeast. This morning's 6:35 am EDT QuikSCAT pass saw winds of 45 mph, so this is probably Tropical Storm Omar. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the storm beginning at 2 pm EDT today. Satellite loops show the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity is on the increase, and the cloud pattern is growing more organized. Wind shear has fallen to a moderate 10-15 knots over TD 15, allowing this increased organization to occur. Radar from the Netherlands Antilles shows that the rain has organized into spiral rain bands.


The track forecast for TD 15
The storm is expected to drift southeastward until an upper-level trough of low pressure swings far enough south tonight to pull the storm northeastward towards Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Variations in timings between the models have narrowed some, with landfall in the Virgin Islands, northern Lesser Antilles Islands, or eastern Puerto Rico expected sometime between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Heavy rains should spread into the islands tonight, generating additional rainfall totals of 5-10 inches. The eastern portion of the Dominican Republic will likely get 3-6 inches, and Haiti will escape heavy rains from the storm.


The intensity forecast for TD 15
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-20 knot range over the next two days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow TD 15 to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds by the time it moves through the Virgin Islands Wednesday evening. The HWRF and GFDL models predict TD 15 will have 65-75 mph sustained winds at landfall Wednesday night.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

[HURAKAN]

Now forecast to be a hurricane by the time it reaches the NE Antilles. The situation is getting worse for our friends in this region.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hummm tkanks a lot, waouw going from TD to hurricane cat 1 in 4 hours?..

NHC says minimal TS. I guess recon will tell the story.

I do tend to trust Mr. Stewart more than an automated computer analysis...

[caribepr]

TS Omar now... edit: oops! didn't get/see your post, Hurrakan

TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1500 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 65.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 55SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 69.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Gustywind]

Hummm tkanks a lot, waouw going from TD to hurricane cat 1 in 4 hours?..

NHC says minimal TS. I guess recon will tell the story.

I do tend to trust Mr. Stewart more than an automated computer analysis...

Yeah absolutely agree .

[HURAKAN]

11 AM Omar Discussion:

"RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING."

[Category 5]

11 AM Omar Discussion:

"RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING."

Troubling indeed, this has organized quite well this morning.

[WmE]

Very very impressive system with very deep convection in the CDO, nearly Wilmaesque.

[CrazyC83]

I think the 35 kt is really conservative but we need Recon to prove.

[Category 5]

I think the 35 kt is really conservative but we need Recon to prove.

Going by Quikscat and satellite I'd be surprised if they didn't find a stronger system.

[HURAKAN]