SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[Chacor]

Actually, that particular image was indeed up to date.

Someone removed HURAKAN's post about an ADT analysis right before mine, taking my comment out of context. Not good form at all.

[Squarethecircle]

Hurakan actually probably just realized your point.

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

Well done Hurakan

[JonathanBelles]

Thats one of the best pictures so far.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 110603

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/10/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/11 AT 0600 UTC :
23.1S / 86.0E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/3.5 /W 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 180
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 24.3S/85.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 24.8S/84.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 25.1S/83.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 24.8S/81.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 24.3S/80.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/14 06 UTC: 24.1S/78.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=3.5+

DEEP CONVECTION HAS TOTALLY DISAPPEARED, DUE TO LACK OF ENERGY WITH COLD
SST.

HONDO IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVELY TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES, WEAKENING OVER COOL SEA.



Yes, that is colour IR.

[Pedro Fernández]

Bye, bye, HONDO... Thank you for giving us fantastic moments looking at you

It is incredible to see how it has weakened in a short time. Only around 24h from showing an eye to be almost dissapeared (only as a lowcloud swirl...).

This have been a very nice topic. Congratulations !

[HURAKAN]

Hondo is the first of the great ones that we will see in 2008.

[Chacor]

931
WTIO30 FMEE 111217

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/10/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/11 AT 1200 UTC :
23.7S / 85.7E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/3.0 /W 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 24.7S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 25.1S/84.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 25.1S/82.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 24.7S/80.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/14 00 UTC: 24.3S/79.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2008/02/14 12 UTC: 24.2S/77.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=3.0+

DEEP CONVECTION HAS TOTALLY DISAPPEARED, DUE TO LACK OF ENERGY WITH COLD
SST.

HONDO IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVELY TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES, WEAKENING OVER COOL SEA.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 FEB 2008 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 23:58:27 S Lon : 85:25:45 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.0 /1005.1mb/ 25.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.1mb

Center Temp : +11.2C Cloud Region Temp : 0.4C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

THE FALL OF A GIANT!

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 120033

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/10/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/12 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6S / 85.1E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 24.6S/84.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 23.8S/82.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 22.9S/81.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/02/14 00 UTC: 22.7S/80.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
60H: 2008/02/14 12 UTC: 23.0S/80.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2008/02/15 00 UTC: 24.0S/79.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.5+
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND THERE IS NO MORE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HONDO IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVELY TO RECURVE WESTWARDS THEN WEST
-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.
BEYOND 48 HOURS, HONDO IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AGAIN.
OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND 25 TO 26 DEGREES CELCIUS, SYSTEM WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY BUT STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE ALL RANGES
OF THIS FORECAST.
WINDS HAVE BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 1541Z ASCAT SWATH.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 121226 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/10/20072008
1.A FILLING DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/12 AT 1200 UTC :
24.3S / 84.8E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 23.5S/83.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , FILLING UP.
24H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 22.7S/81.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , FILLING UP.
36H: 2008/02/14 00 UTC: 22.0S/80.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , FILLING UP.
48H: 2008/02/14 12 UTC: 21.6S/79.7E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP.
60H: 2008/02/15 00 UTC: 21.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=015KT , DISSIPATING.
72H: 2008/02/15 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
HONDO'S CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER WELL DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED
IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE VERY RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HONDO HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM, WHICH REMAINS CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

[wyq614]

ex-Hondo is now moving northwestward

[Squarethecircle]

Down from NRL now (finally).

[Crostorm]

[Squarethecircle]

!!!!!!!

I'm surprised it's kept it shape like that.

[Crostorm]

Here is forecast from Rodrigues(Google translate),is there any possibility that Ex Hondo become a active again?



COMMUNIQUE OF THE WEATHER FOR RODRIGUES EMIS to 16.00 EC TUESDAY 19
FEBRUARY 2008.

BACKGROUND:
A 1600 HOURS, THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE "EX-HONDO" WAS CENTERED A
APPROXIMATELY 175 KM TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES, OR AROUND THE POINT
SOUTH DEGREE 19.0, 65.0 DEGREE IS.

IT IS MOVING IN A GENERAL OF THE SOUTH WEST TO WEST
ENVIRON 15KM / H. ON THIS TRACK THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO BRINGING THE RODRIGUES AND THAT'S VERY NEAR ISLAND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:

TIME WILL BE COVERED WITH A STRONG AVERSES MODEREES BY
ACCOMPANIED BY MOMENTS OF ISOLATED ORAGES. THERE A RISK
ACCUMULATION OF WATER IN THE USUAL place.

WIND THROUGH THE ORDER OF 40 KM / H SOUFFLERA SOUTH SOUTH EAST WITH
GUSTS OF 80KM / H AND MAY ACHIEVE THE 100 KM / H THE LATE
NIGHT.
THE SEA WILL BE STRONG AND HOULEUSE. THE OUT OF THE HIGH SEAS OF THE SAME
AS IN LAGONS ARE STRONGLY DECONSEILLEES.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE AROUND AND MAXIMUM 21'C BETWEEN 24
AND 30'C.

[Coredesat]

Amazingly, it looks like the remnant low of Hondo has been steered northward by low-level flow and is generating some (shallow) convection.

[G.B.]

Invest 92S has been removed from NRL and is now named 16S Hondo

[Coredesat]

Can a mod merge this thread to the Hondo thread, and unarchive it?