ATL: IKE Discussion

[Bocadude85]

everyone east of US 1 is evacuated for cat 3 and up

right , otherwise if i stay i will have to swim across the intracoastal until they put the bridges back down.

i have a question to the pro's, especially derek about storm surge in SE florida . Boca raton to be specific, do you think given the right angle a storm surge (of say a cat 3) will easily come across AIA about 600 yards with a depth of more than a foot or two. i say this because i wasn't sure since Se florida is known to have lower storm surges due to water depth and perhaps land (fetch interference) from the bahamas, so the big swells can't hit from an east direction.

what part of A1A are you on? some points in Boca are higher then others

[Ixolib]

Director of emergency mangment for broward county said if nhc track is perfect evacs would begin monday

I wonder what his definition of "PERFECT" is??? I mean, seldom does anything to do with tropical weather ever do anything perfect. Besides, evacuation has to take place PRIOR to landfall and a perfect point of landfall cannot be determined until that time... Are his expectations too high?

[Scorpion]

Oh yes, if you don't have a sturdy home or shutters by all means you should evacuate.

[stayawaynow]

One of the good things with Ike is that everyone that I know is already aware of this threat, while some people are not normally aware until the media starts hyping. I credit this to people checking up on Hanna and noticing Ike.

If the cone and models stay the way they are through the 5 AM and 11 AM advisories, I am going to go into heavy preparations. We could be looking at the worst thing since Andrew to come in on Florida's South East coast.

I agree on the heavy preparations. I think also that we are better prepared as a community than we were 3~4 years ago. We are 12 miles inland and will stay for a strong 3 or weak 4....beyond that, I will shutter up, load up and head north. I will then come back and clean up.

I survived Andrew in the Redlands on Roberts Road in '92 so I know what a bad aftermath can be...but I was a younger man then and single. I have responsibilities now and don't want to risk 150+ MPH winds and the destruction that is caused by that level of storm.

Be keenly aware of the progress of Ike and govern yourselves accordingly.

How far north???? I am thinking of shuttering the house and going to Orlando. I am been told that may not be wise. Wilma was enough for me to live through, oh yeah Francis and Jeanne to.

[miamijaaz]

If I were leaving, I'd rent a hotel room in Orlando or farther north for check-in Monday that you can cancel with 24 hours notice, and then make a decision on Sunday.

[jinftl]

If current track and timeline holds, I would imagine hurricane watches being posted on Sunday afternoon for parts of the Florida east coast...that would put landfall about 48 hours out, with the onset of ts conditions sooner of course.

[RattleMan]

What is the highest Dvorak reading for a storm? I know 8.0 on the scale, but I'm sure some storms have showed higher numbers.

One of the more impressive ones was Cyclone Monica:

[MusicCityMan]

where on the east coast ya think?

[Scorpion]

Just to put some perspective to this situation, Wilma Frances and Jeanne brought only Cat 1 conditions to South Florida. If this were to hit it would very likely be a 4, possibly a 5. It's on a completely different level.

[Bocadude85]

One of the good things with Ike is that everyone that I know is already aware of this threat, while some people are not normally aware until the media starts hyping. I credit this to people checking up on Hanna and noticing Ike.

If the cone and models stay the way they are through the 5 AM and 11 AM advisories, I am going to go into heavy preparations. We could be looking at the worst thing since Andrew to come in on Florida's South East coast.

I agree on the heavy preparations. I think also that we are better prepared as a community than we were 3~4 years ago. We are 12 miles inland and will stay for a strong 3 or weak 4....beyond that, I will shutter up, load up and head north. I will then come back and clean up.

I survived Andrew in the Redlands on Roberts Road in '92 so I know what a bad aftermath can be...but I was a younger man then and single. I have responsibilities now and don't want to risk 150+ MPH winds and the destruction that is caused by that level of storm.

Be keenly aware of the progress of Ike and govern yourselves accordingly.

How far north???? I am thinking of shuttering the house and going to Orlando. I am been told that may not be wise. Wilma was enough for me to live through, oh yeah Francis and Jeanne to.

its a little to early to be leaving but if the track continues as is on saturday then you can think about leaving

[stayawaynow]

If I were leaving, I'd rent a hotel room in Orlando or farther north for check-in Monday that you can cancel with 24 hours notice, and then make a decision on Sunday.

luckily we have a place to stay there. I would want to leave before the rush. i remember the cars on the turnpike running out of gas....i think for Francis.

[Brent]

where on the east coast ya think?

Right now, with the tracks pointing at the Keys/Miami/WPB etc., probably below the Cape.

Of course the models may look completely different Sunday.

[Ixolib]

Just because you are on land and not in a mobile home is no guarantee of safety.

True. But a well-built home, on HIGH ground (30+ feet), will in most cases survive a cat 4 storm.

I'm thinking Scorpian's point is this. If you're not in a surge zone, your home is sturdy and well built by all accounts, and it's in compliance with the currently accepted building codes, then it's probably better to leave the evac routes open for those who would otherwise be overcome by surge, or those in mobile homes which cannot ever be considered well built and sturdy in relation to a hurricane.

Placing every single person who lives in the lower half of FL on the road to evacuate may prove more dangerous than simply asking citizens to make prudent decisions based on their home's ability to withstand cat 4 winds. And where they gonna go? Orlando? That too may not be prudent.....

Oh, and anyone who's closely surrounded by pine trees might want to consider alternate accommodations as well.....

[Agua]

Pine and pecan.

[superfly]

What is the highest Dvorak reading for a storm? I know 8.0 on the scale, but I'm sure some storms have showed higher numbers.

Super Typhoon Angela had T8.3 and Cyclone Monica would have dipped above T8.0 if the graph showed it (it's obvious that there was a peak above 8.0 that's not shown.

Angela:


Monica:

[MHurricanes]

One of the good things with Ike is that everyone that I know is already aware of this threat, while some people are not normally aware until the media starts hyping. I credit this to people checking up on Hanna and noticing Ike.

If the cone and models stay the way they are through the 5 AM and 11 AM advisories, I am going to go into heavy preparations. We could be looking at the worst thing since Andrew to come in on Florida's South East coast.

I agree on the heavy preparations. I think also that we are better prepared as a community than we were 3~4 years ago. We are 12 miles inland and will stay for a strong 3 or weak 4....beyond that, I will shutter up, load up and head north. I will then come back and clean up.

I survived Andrew in the Redlands on Roberts Road in '92 so I know what a bad aftermath can be...but I was a younger man then and single. I have responsibilities now and don't want to risk 150+ MPH winds and the destruction that is caused by that level of storm.

Be keenly aware of the progress of Ike and govern yourselves accordingly.

How far north???? I am thinking of shuttering the house and going to Orlando. I am been told that may not be wise. Wilma was enough for me to live through, oh yeah Francis and Jeanne to.

We went through Charley in 2004 in Orlando (Altamonte Springs), and we were on the west side of the storm. Charley was a fast-moving low catergory 1 disaster and left us with no electricity for almost three days. I can't image anything Cat 2 or above. Charley made us appreciate the power of Mother Nature.

[jinftl]

With the current track holding...I could imagine hurricane watches from maybe even Flagler Beach south....depends if we have a west moving or a w-nw moving storm that may curve nw.

Totally depends on the wind radii as well...hurricane force winds 75 miles from the center would necessitate a larger area of watches and eventual warnings than a 30 mile field of hurricane force winds.

where on the east coast ya think?

Right now, with the tracks pointing at the Keys/Miami/WPB etc., probably below the Cape.

Of course the models may look completely different Sunday.

[tallbunch]

Is there any chance of this storm hitting SFL and riding up the entire East Coast or would it go out to sea after impact to FL?

[njweather]

If the 130mph + winds don't scare you, perhaps the weeks without power should.

Anyways, just follow your local government - if an evac. is necessary, they'll let you know...

BUT, this storm is a few days away, things can change...

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

Looks like Ike may be bit further along than the NHC 06z forecast point