ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

These models are going to be doing a lot of flip flopping west to east and east to west for the next few days till the pattern with the westerlies affecting the ridge gets settled on.

[sphelps8681]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/hurric ... verify.gif

This is from Weather Underground. It shows actual forecast compared to models/NHC.

Pretty cool. As of today it shows from 9/1-9/4. Not sure how often it updates.

[jlauderdal]

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

Hurricanes do not have to slow down to change direction. They are not an animate object. It is a whole different deal when dealing with a weather system.

They certainly don't HAVE to like lauderdale said but in this case a slowdown would result in a further east position when the ridge breaks down which would result in closer to Florida.

whoa hold on a minute fasterdisaster, a slow down now does not imply a further east position for the general, general ike is moving as forecast by nhc, i was out for the past few hours at the beach enjoying our fine weather with some friends and haven't had the calculator out in a while but a slowdown could be a move more to the west instead of this big wsw we have seen or it could be a wobble, sometimes they go through these big wobbles as the reorganize or feeling a bump in the ridging...im not saying it doesnt get farther east or west but lets not get ahead of ourselves here on a slowdown and think south florida is more at risk, we need to wait and see how it behaves and so far its behaved well in the 48 hour forecasts

best thing to do is watch and wait, i know this rather painful especially for our neighbors on the north gulf coast, keys and now texas but lets see how the pattern shakes out in a few days, it can change as we have seen

[sunnyday]

What if the trough doesn't come down far enough to pick up Ike?

[jinftl]

A generally west track would result...not so different than the NHC forecast track through about the Tuesday pm forecast point. Maybe a track closer to the coast of the Yucatan moving w or wnw vs a track with a more northward component.

What if the trough doesn't come down far enough to pick up Ike?

[gtalum]

What if the trough doesn't come down far enough to pick up Ike?

Then he keeps moving westward.

[Bellarose]

What if the trough doesn't come down far enough to pick up Ike?

I believe he goes more West? (this is my first ever guess, so be gentle!)

[jlauderdal]

Storms dont move...they are steered. If there is a change in what is steering a storm...say from a strong ridge guiding it west until a trough moves in and begins to turn it north....as the ridge's influence on the storm wanes and the trough takes over guiding it...there is usually a slow down....think of it as a tug of war to move the storm...a slow-down is often a tip off that a ridge is losing its influence. A track like Floyd off the coast of florida is a great example.

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

Hurricanes do not have to slow down to change direction. They are not an animate object. It is a whole different deal when dealing with a weather system.

absolutely, local weather guy trent aric on channel 10 said they are like hockey pucks and they move until hit with a stick and then change directions and the ridges and troughs are the hockey sticks, i thought it was a good analogy, but lets be clear that a slow down does not automatically mean a significant change on the compass is occurring, reorganization can cause slowdowns, or wobbling can give a net decrease in speed but when you average it out over time as we all should be doing and not wobble watching the track stays the same..

[artist]

Storms dont move...they are steered. If there is a change in what is steering a storm...say from a strong ridge guiding it west until a trough moves in and begins to turn it north....as the ridge's influence on the storm wanes and the trough takes over guiding it...there is usually a slow down....think of it as a tug of war to move the storm...a slow-down is often a tip off that a ridge is losing its influence. A track like Floyd off the coast of florida is a great example.

Ike would have to slow down in order to change direction.Is their still a chance of that happening around Florida or did the ridge solidify more.

Hurricanes do not have to slow down to change direction. They are not an animate object. It is a whole different deal when dealing with a weather system.

I think for the most part that is true, but I have also heard over the years that a strong storm can almost create its own path. Has anyone else heard this?

[jinftl]

There is not some massive trough dropping in to scoop ike up like wilma was picked up and shoved into florida.....no influence pulling ike north to some extent (even then it will be wnw or nw)....might put the western gulf region at higher risk than say the area from New Orleans on to the east.

What if the trough doesn't come down far enough to pick up Ike?

Then he keeps moving westward.

[jlauderdal]

What if the trough doesn't come down far enough to pick up Ike?

I believe he goes more West? (this is my first ever guess, so be gentle!)

i cant believe you would say that ..you are correct actually, good work

[Bellarose]

What if the trough doesn't come down far enough to pick up Ike?

I believe he goes more West? (this is my first ever guess, so be gentle!)

i cant believe you would say that ..you are correct actually, good work

Lol, taking my first baby steps. I've been reading this thread for years, learning from all of you.

[Duddy]

What if the trough doesn't come down far enough to pick up Ike?

Then I'm taking a vacation to Austin.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm definitely not buying a Texas threat with one run of models. And neither should any of you.


Wait to see if any consistency forms here. Calm down....

Exactly. Go watch plucky Miami try to keep it close against the #5 Gators.

[Duddy]

I'm definitely not buying a Texas threat with one run of models. And neither should any of you.


Wait to see if any consistency forms here. Calm down....

Exactly. Go watch plucky Miami try to keep it close against the #5 Gators.

I can't watch sports, it's lame. Unless tracking storms is a sport, then if so I'm a superfan!

[ROCK]

I'm definitely not buying a Texas threat with one run of models. And neither should any of you.


Wait to see if any consistency forms here. Calm down....

well the EURO's 5 runs in row is not enough for you?

[deltadog03]

Its going depend on that trof...period....Models will stuggle since they really struggle with trof's coming out of the west.....

[ROCK]

Its going depend on that trof...period....Models will stuggle since they really struggle with trof's coming out of the west.....

I agree with that statement Delta....timing will be crucial....IMO

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm definitely not buying a Texas threat with one run of models. And neither should any of you.


Wait to see if any consistency forms here. Calm down....

well the EURO's 5 runs in row is not enough for you?

Nope..because even if the storm goes to Texas that last EURO run was bogus.

If you want my opinion....SETX/SWLA border is as far west as Ike gets.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

DeltaDog, was this slowing predicted by the models? I don't remember seeing that earlier, I was so focussed on the end game.

If not, will the slowing now affect that trough connection later? -resulting in a more easterly outcome?