ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Bellarose]

Thank you, Duddy.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

can anyone see the bamm model? I followed the link but I can't see it.

which bamm will the link show? the bamd? or is it a consensus of all three?

the last run of it had the deep bamm being the north and easterly outlier compared to other models, but the the low and mid level bamms were actually a little west of the consensus.

so depending how this shifted, it may give insight as to what the new G-IV recon data may do to the other models.

[vaffie]

can anyone see the bamm model? I followed the link but I can't see it.

which bamm will the link show? the bamd? or is it a consensus of all three?

the last run of it had the deep bamm being the north and easterly outlier compared to other models, but the the low and mid level bamms were actually a little west of the consensus.

so depending how this shifted, it may give insight as to what the new G-IV recon data may do to the other models.

You can see the BAMM here: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif
It looks like it's not shifted at all from the 18Z location. Keep in mind that the BAM models are non-dynamic unlike the globals and the regionals. What that means is that they have no idea at all if there's a cold front coming or anything like that. The way they work is that they take a picture of the steering patterns at the present, and show the track that the storm would take if the steering patterns never changed for the next five days. But because, naturally, those steering patterns are constantly changing, it does not give much insight into what the storm will do beyond the next 36 hours. Like you said, though, they are a leading indicator of how models might trend, and that's what I like to use them for, but otherwise they're fairly worthless.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

yup, I agree. I'm fully aware of their true worth. But what will be good to see is the synoptic snapshot it reveals right now as far as teh strength of the ridges and any start of a weakness that may be just starting to materialize between them.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

all the bamms gained latitude overall. in fact, quite a bit more than I would have thought. that is a bit revealing. I wonder what the other models will do when they injest the data too.

[jinftl]

Run...run away now....i totally get your reasoning...the models will not be so logical. There are way too many model runs and way to many variables...both meaningful and meaningless..any one individual model will pick up on from run ro run. No one model...esp the BAMM...was intended for such purposes. You will drive yourself nuts in the next 7 days....that is alot of runs of the models.

yup, I agree. I'm fully aware of their true worth. But what will be good to see is the synoptic snapshot it reveals right now as far as teh strength of the ridges and any start of a weakness that may be just starting to materialize between them.

[cape_escape]

I hope this isn't a silly question, but when using the model plot at http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml what are all the AP01, AP09 , TCCN, etc, used for? there are a lot of them I have never seen mentioned on here.

[Stratosphere747]

I hope this isn't a silly question, but when using the model plot at http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml what are all the AP01, AP09 , TCCN, etc, used for? there are a lot of them I have never seen mentioned on here.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Home/modellist.txt

[ronjon]

Looking over the 00Z NAM 500 mb pattern over the next 84 hrs shows a dramatic weakening of the mid-level ridge after about 24 hrs. The ridge retreats east and slides up to the northern GOM as a narrow east-west ridge. Don't know if this is a trend, but the BAM med shifted to the NE at 00Z and the BAM Deep has a track through the keys and just off the SW FL coast. The 00Z NAM moves Ike W-NW off the Cuban coast and comes pretty close to KYW. These aren't real good models so this may be nothing - but I'll be watching the 500 mb pattern closely as even a small weakness could turn Ike more W-NW or even NW in just 24 hrs.

[Sanibel]

GFDL saw both SW dip outliers on Gus and Ike. Amazing accuracy in this situation. Probably because both storms went to high intensity and fit GFDL's strong storm profile.

To think I thought this had any chance to hook towards SW Florida. But I did insist people watch GFDL for the reason that turned out in the end.


Now we get to watch climatological history.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Run...run away now....i totally get your reasoning...the models will not be so logical. There are way too many model runs and way to many variables...both meaningful and meaningless..any one individual model will pick up on from run ro run. No one model...esp the BAMM...was intended for such purposes. You will drive yourself nuts in the next 7 days....that is alot of runs of the models.

yup, I agree. I'm fully aware of their true worth. But what will be good to see is the synoptic snapshot it reveals right now as far as teh strength of the ridges and any start of a weakness that may be just starting to materialize between them.

hahaha! Oh I know! But I take pleasure in driving myself nuts with this stuff! haha

I don't follow each model run like that though, especially not the Bamms. They are crap overall fro any paths. BUT this one run was ingesting the new synoptic data, so , a comparison before and after that data does reveal ahead of time the potential for the others to shift with the more accurate info. I've been following this stuff for years, i soooo know that the Bamms are poop.

[jinftl]

From Hurricanealley.com


BAM (Beta and Advection Model)...
This model follows a trajectory from the Aviation run of the MRF model to provide a track forecast. This model incorporates a correction known as the "Beta Effect". This is used to account for the fact that the Coriolis force resulting from the rotation of the earth is greater toward the poles, so the winds on the northern side of the storm in the Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone are turned more than those on its southern side. If no other winds were steering a tropical cyclone the "Beta Effect" would cause a westward-headed storm to drift toward the north in the Northern Hemisphere, and toward the south in the Southern Hemisphere. There are three (3) versions of the BAM...

1.. BAMS - the BAM Shallow, this version averages winds from 5,000 to 10,000 feet (850 - 700 mb)
2.. BAMM - the BAM Medium, this version averages winds from 10,000 to 24,500 feet (850 - 400 mb)
3.. BAMD - the BAM Deep, this version averages winds from 24,500 to up to 47,000 feet (850 - 200 mb)

For a weak hurricane without a well-developed eye wall extending deep into the atmosphere, or for a tropical storm, the shallow version of the model may work well, because storms of this nature tend to be steered by low-level winds. As the storm grows stronger and the eye wall gets deeper the deeper versions become more accurate, for these types of storms are steered more by the winds in the upper-level. If the forecast from the three versions is similar the forecaster can then assume that the storm may go as predicted, but, if the version vary by a great deal, then the forecaster has less confidence in the track predicted. The large differences can also point to wind shear in the atmosphere, which could affect the intensity forecast as well.

all the bamms gained latitude overall. in fact, quite a bit more than I would have thought. that is a bit revealing. I wonder what the other models will do when they injest the data too.

[cape_escape]

I hope this isn't a silly question, but when using the model plot at http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml what are all the AP01, AP09 , TCCN, etc, used for? there are a lot of them I have never seen mentioned on here.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Home/modellist.txt

Thank you Stratsphere!

[curtadams]

Anyone else notice the crazy intensity the 18z GFS forecasts? 145kts? Did someone leave the burner on under the GOMEX or something?

I have never seen the GFS forecast such intensity. Fortunately the other models don't see the same epic hurricane but what they see is bad enough. The borderline-3 GFDL forecast looks to be caused by a excessively broad low pressure which is a problem it used to have quite badly in the past. Although they "fixed" it in 2006, I'm thinking it slipped back into this forecast.

[jhpigott]

question - the GFS, GDFL and HWRF are all going to run in the next couple hours, do we know for sure yet whether the NOAA G-IV data is going to be incorporated?

[mattpetre]

When is the next gfdl out? I'm interested to see its consistency. Starting to get a tinge of long range worry here in Houston.

[HouTXmetro]

When is the next gfdl out? I'm interested to see its consistency. Starting to get a tinge of long range worry here in Houston.

It's a good thing to be targeted this far out. Miami was the target just a few days ago now they are not even in the cone.

[PTPatrick]

I wouldnt wory about consistency yet. I think it was either the 18z or 0z GFDL last night that had this hitting Tampa. None of them have really been consistent.

[vaffie]

When is the next gfdl out? I'm interested to see its consistency. Starting to get a tinge of long range worry here in Houston.

The Gulfstream data was incorporated as far as I know. Remember that the Gulfstream data is not so important for the longrange forecast--it's more important for the next 24 hours. The 0Z GFS should start coming out in the next 25 minutes. The 0Z GFDL comes out around 12:40 am central time, the 0Z UKMET/NOGAPS/CMC come out around 12:55 am, the 0Z HWRF comes out around 1:05 am, the EURO around 2:45 am. I think that covers the important ones.

[ROCK]

I wouldnt wory about consistency yet. I think it was either the 18z or 0z GFDL last night that had this hitting Tampa. None of them have really been consistent.

not correct...the EURO has been sniffing the WGOM solution for two whole days. 4 straight runs....that is consistant.....now that I say that it will prbably send Ike to New York tonight.....