Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ed Mahmoud]

ummm...that GFDL is wack...and I am totally discounting that for now..

It follows Joe Bastardi's ideas. Not that that means anything.

[Noles2006]

Ed... it means VERY little... if Joe was the MAN, we'd have already had 10 homegrown Gulf systems this year, lol.

Anway, for a more detailed discussion on why the GFDL is "wack", check out the TS FAY discussion thread. Derek, wxman and others are discussing why they disagree with that track.

[sunnyday]

Over the past couple of days, the forecasted track has been everywhere, and people have been worried about the storm hitting their location only to see the track change again and again. I know that storms are unpredictable and that every model is trying its best to be accurate, but when should we all know something that is at least a probable, accurate prediction of landfall? Thank you for your answers.

[weatherwoman]

ummm...that GFDL is wack...and I am totally discounting that for now..

It follows Joe Bastardi's ideas. Not that that means anything.

that mean a lot a whole lot he is a smart man and knows what he is talking about not that some people want to admit that, i follow and agree with him before any other forecaster out there and people along the east coast should do the samething, and when it comes down to it you value his apenion as well or you wouldnt even know what he is saying

[TampaBay]

If you use IE, you should have a bar come up and hit run active something..

That was it.

ActiveX? =Deprecated, not useful any more.

[Dean4Storms]

NOGAPS and UKMET continue with a Panhandle landfall at 12Z.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8081612!!/

[artist]

just more confusion. I guess everyone in the se coast of fl as well as the gulf coast, actually both coasts should just prepare and if it hits you you are prepared.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Who has the GFDL Strength model?

[ronjon]

I noticed that the 12Z HWRF takes Fay as a hurricane right up Tampa Bay. Worst case for tidal surge in downtown Tampa. Regarding the east shift of the GFDL - this model seems of late to have a right hand bias - I used to think it was the best (and maybe it is 48 hrs out) but its performance at the 3+ day level shows oscillating extremes. Here is where forecaster judgement takes the place of pure numerics. Fay is weak, having been disrupted by Hispanola, therefore she will be steered by low levels - which means westerly in this case. The longer she stays weak, the more west she moves prior to the turn NW and N. The 12Z GFDL has Fay moving NW now with a much stronger storm - its interesting that the global models which keep Fay fairly weak (NOGAPs, UKMET, BAM Sh) have the most southern and western track.

[Steve H.]

Luis, where can we see the 24 and 48-hour Euro? Is it at Plymouth?

[jlauderdal]

just more confusion. I guess everyone in the se coast of fl as well as the gulf coast, actually both coasts should just prepare and if it hits you you are prepared.

once a watch is issued prepare like you are getting a direct hit and you will sleep well and wont have nearly as many problems as those that are standing in line at home deopt or publix, its really about common sense

[artist]

I noticed that the 12Z HWRF takes Fay as a hurricane right up Tampa Bay. Worst case for tidal surge in downtown Tampa. Regarding the east shift of the GFDL - this model seems of late to have a right hand bias - I used to think it was the best (and maybe it is 48 hrs out) but its performance at the 3+ day level shows oscillating extremes. Here is where forecaster judgement takes the place of pure numerics. Fay is weak, having been disrupted by Hispanola, therefore she will be steered by low levels - which means westerly in this case. The longer she stays weak, the more west she moves prior to the turn NW and N. The 12Z GFDL has Fay moving NW now with a much stronger storm - its interesting that the global models which keep Fay fairly weak (NOGAPs, UKMET, BAM Sh) have the most southern and western track.

what about the euro?

[Steve H.]

Actually, I think Fay is pulling herself together quite well already. I don't see her making to the western potion of Cuba. Look at the satellite view of the trough pushing into the NE GOM. Quite impressive for this time of year. This is where the weakness and lower heights are showing up, and probably sooner rather than later.

[ronjon]

I noticed that the 12Z HWRF takes Fay as a hurricane right up Tampa Bay. Worst case for tidal surge in downtown Tampa. Regarding the east shift of the GFDL - this model seems of late to have a right hand bias - I used to think it was the best (and maybe it is 48 hrs out) but its performance at the 3+ day level shows oscillating extremes. Here is where forecaster judgement takes the place of pure numerics. Fay is weak, having been disrupted by Hispanola, therefore she will be steered by low levels - which means westerly in this case. The longer she stays weak, the more west she moves prior to the turn NW and N. The 12Z GFDL has Fay moving NW now with a much stronger storm - its interesting that the global models which keep Fay fairly weak (NOGAPs, UKMET, BAM Sh) have the most southern and western track.

what about the euro?

Good Point Artist - the Euro was the first model to point to a sharp NE turn this morning and is sticking with its guns. The Euro has a good track record 3-5 days out so maybe its on to something - although I can't tell from the european model site what strength it has Fay the first 48 hrs of its run. Still have a very wide swath of potential solutions from Mobile on the west (NOGAPs) to Euro/GFDL on the right (extreme SE FL and the Carolinas) - just having a hard time buying the extreme eastern tracks because:

1. Fay is weak and likely to stay weak the next 36 hrs.
2. The low-to-mid level ridge sits north of Cuba between the old front along the northern gulf coast and Fay for the next 36 hrs.
3. There is no "strong" trough to pull Fay sharply NE (someone pull up the 500 mb pattern when Charley jerked E-NE and compare to this situation)
4. The trough that is supposed to tug this thing to the Carolinas is located up in northern New England (45 deg N Latitude) - usually if the troughs are more than 10 or 11 deg latitude or more north of the storm they have little influence)
5. The orientation of the the western side of the Atlantic Ridge is N-S or NW-SE, with the western end covering the FL peninsula (according to GFS 500 mb), and the ridge is building with time as the trough over the NE lifts out.

No, I think with these factors the NHC track looks about the best for now - with a SE GOM track northward either just off the coast or just inland with landfall anywhere from Naples to FL Big Bend.

[Ivanhater]

Finally the NAM falling in line

[artist]

[artist]

more confusion?

[wxsouth]

IMO...the 18z nam is garbage once again. The center basically "jumps" cuba and reforms on the north coast between 24 and 36 hours. Throw it out...as you should usually do when it comes to the NAM and tropical cyclones.

[Steve H.]

Well the NAM is between most ot the other guidance, so you really can't say its garbage. The 5pm NHC track is probably closer to the truth though. Close to the 11am.