Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

Pretty much has all of Florida covered

[KWT]

Well the core of the models suggest this heads over Cuba around 80W then steadly bends round to the NE. I think thats probably the best option...I wouldn't totally discount the GFDL but it seems a little extreme IMO.

[gatorcane]

Indeed and with the peninsula the possible target and most models trending along the west coast of FL, the FL peninsula may be on the dirty side with the highest winds...

IMPORTANT statement from NHC discussion:

EVERYONE IN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST
LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT.

[sunny]

What's up with NOGAPS?

[sunnyday]

Does anyone have an idea if/when the watches will go up for Fl?

[deltadog03]

Hmm....some of them showing that NW bend at the end...=ridge building back in. Also, it appears that models are not seeing as much cuba time.

[KWT]

Its really tricky deltadog, what do we believe right now, the models that bend the system slightly west again or do we believe that the trough has strongly latched unto it and send it NE. Its really hard to make that sort of call!

[capepoint]

What's up with NOGAPS?

I think its an older us navy model. I dont know but I've read it does not have a real good track record with tropical systems. Maybe someone else can enlighten us.

[cycloneye]

Complete model spaghetti graphic.

[PTrackerLA]

Seems like worst case scenario would be for Fay to make it all the way up to the panhandle thus giving lots of time for intensification. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

[KWT]

Nope the Nogaps isn't a great tropical model IMO but its not performared too badly with Fay so far and amazingly the CMC has been probably better then all the major models as well thus far...

[MusicCityMan]

watches probably tomorrow night? {36 hours} warnings.. monday morning maybe {24 hours?}

[JonathanBelles]

watches probably tomorrow night? {36 hours} warnings.. monday morning maybe {24 hours?}

Governor said tonight or tomorrow.

[KWT]

The worst case is the models on that northern side are right and it strengthens up as much as some of the high resolution models suggests, could be a cat-2/3 into Tampa if that happened...

[Derek Ortt]

Looks like GFS is showing shear from the UL starting to impact the system tomorrow, with the anti-cyclone being offset to the east

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

would be great if this became a Gordon (2000)

[jlauderdal]

Nope the Nogaps isn't a great tropical model IMO but its not performared too badly with Fay so far and amazingly the CMC has been probably better then all the major models as well thus far...

nogaps has been good dealing with the mean flow the last few days so has cmc, some people discount those models for the tropics but that is a mistake

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS places the center of the storm offshore between Port Charlotte and Tampa Bay by 8am Tuesday morning...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_066l.gif

[KWT]

Very interesting Derek but how much trust should we put on it happening like that?

Also yep that would be good, an Ernesto would be even better though.

[Derek Ortt]

Very interesting Derek but how much trust should we put on it happening like that?

Also yep that would be good, an Ernesto would be even better though.

None of the other models are doing that though

[PTPatrick]

18 z GFS right into Apalachee bay it looks like...at 78 hrs