ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Skyhawk]

Last area investigated by recon for a center was around 12.6 N 60.0 W. Strong convection developing nearby.

[weatherguru18]

I'm pretty sure the "it's dead, jim" thing is pretty old. Nobody cares really. No offense to anybody, but it's annoying that people jump on and off the development train. Make a decision and stick with it. I've said this thing is going to develop for days. Has it? No. But I'm holding out. It ain't over til' it's over. I garuntee you this is going to fire up again tonight and then everybody and their brother is going to be trying to convince everybody else why for sure this is going to develop. Just my two cents. It doesn't mean much.

[RL3AO]

Last area investigated by recon for a center was around 12.6 N 60.0 W. Strong convection developing nearby.

Yep.

[KWT]

Yep a little region of convection has gone up near 60W, will be interesting if that area can expand and hold over the next 9hrs for recons next mission. Problem is every time its had a convective burst the convection has waned and redeveloped further west of the center thanks to the shear.

[canegrl04]

Wouldn't it be ironic if this pitiful looking thing for days winds up turning into a hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

they may not investigate tonight

typically, low levle invests are NOT conducted at night

[Innotech]

its happened before.
Remember Claudette?
Its those tenacious little fighters that scare me the most.

[MGC]

94L is one rollercoaster of a disturbance. Looks good then looks bad only to start looking good again. I still don't have a clue if it will be upgraded or not. 94L is one of those fence-sitters that could go either way. We usually get one like this every so often. My bets are that it will finally get its act together south of Jamacia.......MGC

[HurricaneHunter914]

This is one fighting system. Convection actually lasted throughout today and now that it's entering the D-MAX, convection will probably continue to increase. But it's only has a matter of time before it enters an area of unfavorable wind shear.

[AnnularCane]

It's starting to look sheared already.

[MiamiensisWx]

The system is facing strong upper level shear from an upper low to the north:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

It has been clearly sheared throughout the day. It isn't encountering the shear now; it has been suffering from it over the past few days.

The southern Caribbean system holds more potential for development than 94L, the latter of which will not develop, in my view.

[Innotech]

thats why Im a bit concerned about it. It has managed to stay alive through all of this.

[fci]

I'm pretty sure the "it's dead, jim" thing is pretty old. Nobody cares really. No offense to anybody, but it's annoying that people jump on and off the development train. Make a decision and stick with it. I've said this thing is going to develop for days. Has it? No. But I'm holding out. It ain't over til' it's over. I garuntee you this is going to fire up again tonight and then everybody and their brother is going to be trying to convince everybody else why for sure this is going to develop. Just my two cents. It doesn't mean much.

The ups and downs of a system and projecting whether it will develop of not is part of the fun of following the tropics. Taking a stand one way or the other and standing firm for the sake of "continuity" is kind of just being stubborn in my opinion.
Some of the Pro Mets have "waffled" on the development of 94L which is totally natural.
As conditions change, ones views change.
At the time a Pro Met makes a "yes" or "no" statement on a system it is based on their professional opinion taking into consideration all of the factors (many of which asre WAY over my head since I am just an amateur). So they are truly not "waffling" they are voicing their interpretation of what they are seeing and it can change anytime based on the things that they professionally consider.

This is all dynamic and never static so naturally viewpoints will change.

Your "garuntee" can't be a guarantee since you don't know. It is your best guess and I welcome hearing it but there are no guarantees!
Nobody knows since this is Mother Nature we are talking about here and there are no absolutes.
And, in my opinion, that is the BEAUTY of the whole thing.

[southerngale]

Excellent post, fci.

[weatherguru18]

I'm pretty sure the "it's dead, jim" thing is pretty old. Nobody cares really. No offense to anybody, but it's annoying that people jump on and off the development train. Make a decision and stick with it. I've said this thing is going to develop for days. Has it? No. But I'm holding out. It ain't over til' it's over. I garuntee you this is going to fire up again tonight and then everybody and their brother is going to be trying to convince everybody else why for sure this is going to develop. Just my two cents. It doesn't mean much.

The ups and downs of a system and projecting whether it will develop of not is part of the fun of following the tropics. Taking a stand one way or the other and standing firm for the sake of "continuity" is kind of just being stubborn in my opinion.
Some of the Pro Mets have "waffled" on the development of 94L which is totally natural.
As conditions change, ones views change.
At the time a Pro Met makes a "yes" or "no" statement on a system it is based on their professional opinion taking into consideration all of the factors (many of which asre WAY over my head since I am just an amateur). So they are truly not "waffling" they are voicing their interpretation of what they are seeing and it can change anytime based on the things that they professionally consider.

This is all dynamic and never static so naturally viewpoints will change.

Your "garuntee" can't be a guarantee since you don't know. It is your best guess and I welcome hearing it but there are no guarantees!
Nobody knows since this is Mother Nature we are talking about here and there are no absolutes.
And, in my opinion, that is the BEAUTY of the whole thing.

Fair enough. However, I'm smarter than the average amature. I'll be graduating next year in meteorology. My "guarantee" is not what it sounded like. I was just trying to make a point that if it fires up again, everybody all of a sudden is going to change their toon.

And now that I've thought about it, anybody can look or sound smart and "nail development" when one keeps flip flopping. You wanna flip flop...fine. But don't type paragraphs as to why something will or will not develop only to change your mind with the next satellite image. That's all.

[brunota2003]

Perhaps some of those who are insulting the Pro Mets need to read this rule:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

As far as 94L goes, interesting that they are flying into it tonight, versus waiting until tomorrow during the day. How close it is to land the main factor there?

[weatherguru18]

Perhaps some of those who are insulting the Pro Mets need to read this rule:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

As far as 94L goes, interesting that they are flying into it tonight, versus waiting until tomorrow during the day. How close it is to land the main factor there?

Not sure what your post was for because nobody was insulted. Thanks.

[mf_dolphin]

We're taking care of the obvious trolls folks. Hang in there with us because this happens every year.

[senorpepr]

Perhaps some of those who are insulting the Pro Mets need to read this rule:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

As far as 94L goes, interesting that they are flying into it tonight, versus waiting until tomorrow during the day. How close it is to land the main factor there?

...and before that spawns another feverish thread hijacking...

Back to 94L.

[cycloneye]

Perhaps some of those who are insulting the Pro Mets need to read this rule:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

As far as 94L goes, interesting that they are flying into it tonight, versus waiting until tomorrow during the day. How close it is to land the main factor there?

Dont worrie as the house is being cleaned.

Back to topic.