ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fci]

Well one thing is for certain, it will go through "Herbert Box" not good for us in Florida

The "Herbert Box" is the Bermuda Triangle of track projection.....

IMO, people misinterpret the Hebert Box.
A storm passing through the box DOES NOT mean a storm will hit Florida.
Storms that hit Florida often go through there but it is not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination and people need to keep this in prespective.
Also keep in mind that North Carolina has as much chance of being struck by a hurricane going through the Hebert Box as Florida does.

More information on the Hebert Box via Hurricane City:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[wxman57]

HURAKAN,put this best track position in your always great graphics.

AL, 92, 2008081400, , BEST, 0, 167N, 590W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 80,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

A ship just36 miles SSW of that position is reporting an east wind (16.2N/59.3W). But I agree, if anything is going to form it'll form closer to the convection. Still just 2-3 heavy storms scattered around NE of the lower pressure area, but the storms are building a bit. Has a long way to go to TD status.

[cycloneye]

Should be noted it needs to gain some latitude if its going to miss the big islands, extrap motion would take right down the heart of all the major Caribbean islands, needs a track of about 290 from now to avoid them totally IMO.

According to the latest model guidance,at 00:00 UTC it was moving west at 280 degrees.

[SouthFLTropics]

Should be noted it needs to gain some latitude if its going to miss the big islands, extrap motion would take right down the heart of all the major Caribbean islands, needs a track of about 290 from now to avoid them totally IMO.

According to the latest model guidance,at 00:00 UTC it was moving west at 280 degrees.

I agree...If it don't pull up soon it's gonna crash and burn right into the big islands and that will change everything...you can throw the models out the door if that happens...

[Honeyko]

ULL northeast of 92 (and northwest of 93) fills in, east-coast trough exhaust bends back toward southeast into Cuba ULL instead of subsiding in the central Atlantic....so no more hot layers at 25k-30k over there -- and Pop! go the IR red meatballs in both 92 and 93.

[ConvergenceZone]

I may have to eat crow on this one...Still felt this morning that it was on it's last legs and would just be a wave, at least for a few days, but I may have been wrong. What's concerning me now is that the convection seems to be maintaining compared to yesterday.....Now ready to much on crow yet, as it's not a depression, but more bullish than yesterday. Derek is obviously seeing something today(inflow) that wasn't apparent yesterday, and there was no indication yesterday that this would happen...Wish it would be a fish though, so that I could wish for a strong cane out of this.....Can't do it now, too close to land.

[Aric Dunn]

watch for the center to overnight close the convection .......
convection really taking off
latest image ..

[Scorpion]

Hopefully the convection won't go poof overnight like it has every night.

[Aric Dunn]

and for the night timers..
shortwave loop old style ( l like it better)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-ir2.html

[gtsmith]

Wish it would be a fish though,

for me so that I don't have to cancel my travel plans...but I will be calling the airlines tomorrow...and reschedule...at least then I can relax about that decision and start getting worked up about 92L

and, IMO, 92L certainly does look a lot more organised than the watermelon we had at this time last night.

[wxman57]

Hopefully the convection won't go poof overnight like it has every night.

Living in Florida, why would you hope it doesn't dissipate? You aren't actually pulling for it to develop, are you?

[canegrl04]

I have a feeling 92L will be a TD by tomorrow evening

[Annie Oakley]

NHC in agreement with us

chances of developing most certainly increasing

You are suppose to be voice of reason and pessimism. Do you see indication now that 92L may have turned the corner to possible developing?

Derek is the man of the hour! I can see him working at NHC someday.

[cheezyWXguy]

I have a feeling 92L will be a TD by tomorrow evening

It is reasonable. In fact that is what I have been expecting the last couple of days. If convection hasnt died by this time tomorrow night then well know somethings up.

[Scorpion]

Hopefully the convection won't go poof overnight like it has every night.

Living in Florida, why would you hope it doesn't dissipate? You aren't actually pulling for it to develop, are you?

Well I wouldn't mind some TS winds and rain. Plus I enjoy watching TC's develop.

[HURAKAN]

[Honeyko]

(....wishing PR radar had a "vertical cross-section" view, wherein I could see how tall everything is as it passes by....)

[RL3AO]

12z Guadeloupe sounding showed that low to mid level shear has lowed to 20kt or so, down from 30kts last night. Lets see what the 0z sounding shows. Still some dry air there though.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hopefully the convection won't go poof overnight like it has every night.

Living in Florida, why would you hope it doesn't dissipate? You aren't actually pulling for it to develop, are you?

Well I wouldn't mind some TS winds and rain. Plus I enjoy watching TC's develop.

well, i think you maybe catching more than youre bargaining for...gfdl has this as a 114kt cat4 hurricane in the northern bahamas, the euro has a hurricane, and other models are going their own ways with this. The point is, if it does eventually develop, which I think it will, there is no telling how strong it could be by the time it gets to the peninsula.

[HURAKAN]