Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[cycloneye]

Lets see if the 00z SHIP shear forecast shows rising shear as GFS is showing.

[KWT]

Well that answers that question then Derek, wonder how its reflected in the 18z GFDL, also may that be why the GFDL is further east as well then the other models?

[ronjon]

18Z GFS further west into Appalachee Bay - 500 mb showing stronger ridge building in.

[Noles2006]

No shifts left, please!

[Bgator]

Once again, the models are going to keep shifting, they always do!

[Ivanhater]

Yeah ron..Pretty good shift west with the gfs

[hiflyer]

Would I be right in thinking that the G4 data being collected might start to get into the 17/0z runs or will it be later than that?

[Jason_B]

I don't think we're going to see any dramatic shifts in the models, looks like Apalachicola to Ft. Myers is the main target.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't think we're going to see any dramatic shifts in the models, looks like Apalachicola to Ft. Myers is the main target.

well, I think a shift west looks plausible

[Dean4Storms]

We don't need any shifts to the west.

[Jason_B]

I don't think we're going to see any dramatic shifts in the models, looks like Apalachicola to Ft. Myers is the main target.

well, I think a shift west looks plausible

You think the models are underestimating the ridge?

[KWT]

Well the models show a current motion now about 285, in truth is probably between 270-275 and if it carries on with that sort of motion the models are going to have to shift west.

[jlauderdal]

What's up with NOGAPS?

nogaps has been performing well the last few days picking up on the overall track so don't discount it

[boca]

If the trend continues west which I feel is currently happening then SE Florida should only get the fringe effects of Fay. Very quick moving squalls and 20 to 25mphs winds at the most.

[Recurve]

That would be fine. But of course with a path across the Florida Strait, we never turn our backs. I'll be ready to go as late as a few hours before landfall if it looks like it's going to deepen past Cat. 1.

[canetracker]

The 00z runs should reflect some of the Recon data but by 12z tomorrow we should have a much better idea of the outcome of Fay's path.

[boca]

I would love for Fay to fill Lake O a good foot.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't think we're going to see any dramatic shifts in the models, looks like Apalachicola to Ft. Myers is the main target.

well, I think a shift west looks plausible

You think the models are underestimating the ridge?

For the next 24-36 hours, I do believe so. This is already beginning to move south of the model guidance and will likely do so for at least the next day. Therefore, I do think that because of this, the track maybe shifted west, possibly near tampa bay. In addition. some models are building the high back towards the end of the run, bending it back northwest, which could possibly add for a further west movement. There are obvious uncertainties at this time, but I stick with my old prediction of eastern florida panhandle.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where is the 6Z GFDL and HWRF?

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL:

452
WHXX04 KWBC 162329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.1 74.8 280./14.0
6 19.3 76.1 280./12.5
12 19.7 77.2 291./11.7
18 20.5 78.0 314./ 9.9
24 21.3 78.9 312./12.2
30 22.4 80.1 314./15.4
36 22.9 81.1 295./10.3
42 23.6 81.7 322./ 9.4
48 24.3 82.0 336./ 7.2
54 24.9 82.0 354./ 6.2
60 25.7 81.9 12./ 7.9
66 26.8 81.9 1./10.8
72 27.7 81.7 8./ 9.4
78 28.5 81.7 3./ 8.2
84 29.2 81.6 11./ 7.0
90 30.3 81.2 18./11.4
96 31.2 81.0 12./ 9.2
102 32.1 81.0 1./ 8.5
108 32.6 81.3 329./ 5.8
114 33.2 81.4 354./ 6.1
120 33.9 81.2 10./ 6.5
126 34.6 81.2 2./ 7.5