ATL: IKE Discussion

[fci]

5day forecast point landfall in Miami

But its prudent to focus on the cone and not the line this far out.

I agree gator. The key is this part of the NHC discussion

"The track guidance is in two distinct branches...the GFS...NOGAPS...and UKMET show the
turn occurring over the Bahamas....while the HWRF...GFDL...and ECMWF take Ike over Cuba or The Straits of Florida. Until it become clear as to which one of these solutions will prevail, the official forecast remains between them...... "

so basically they are saying is that the track itself doesn't mean that the NHC thinks it will strike the Miami area, all it means is that they have 2 sets of models, and decided to just split the difference between them. If it becomes clear that this is going out to sea, then you'll probably see a dramatic shift to the right, or vice versa if the other models prevail...Basically the NHC doesn't know either where it's going to go at this point..... I bring this up because I'm sure there are people looking at the graphic thinking, "oh my god, the NHC has it going to the Miami area"....

YES!

This is very good point and I was about to post it.

I looked at the NHC track and "How close will it get" had 26/80 being just 43.1 miles from me and extrapolated 3 1/2 hours later had the center 25.8 miles from me!

However, I do not see any of the major models showing a landfall here, or near here!
They show a turn before the FL East Coast or a track down to Cuba and then up to the NW or NNW.

Point is that although the official track shows it here, it is a compromise right down the middle.

Think of golf ( I don't play but it seems like a good example):
If I hit it to the right it goes there ----->
If I hit it to the left it goes there <-----------

If I hit it straight it is right down the fairway.

The thing is I never seem to hit them straight!!!!!

We HAVE to watch this carefully, but I am A LOT MORE NERVOUS if I see models pointed at me and not the compromise down the middle....

Finally, while discussions of falling buildings, storm surges and exact landfall locations (I was born at a hospital on Johnson Street in Hollywood by the way) make for salacious conversation; it is WAY EARLY to have these conversations when the track is a COMPROMISE and is for 5 DAYS AWAY!!!!!!

Take a deep breath folks and save yourselves from getting into a frothy frenzy.....
Plenty of time for that later.

[ROCK]

This sounds completely weird, and has never happened in the history of Western Civilization to my knowledge, but if Ike is as far South as Cuba, and misses the weakness passing by, if you ignore the dip in the 588 dm height line caused by where the 18Z GFS sees Ike, and draw it parallel to the others to its North, then, while the Westerlies would,, of course, protect SE Texas, Ike could cruise West or even West-Southwest towards Mexico. This is pure conjecture, thrown out to stimulate discussion. I wouldn't actually be at all nervous if I lived in Tampico.

0z rolling in Ed......I would wait for more guidance.....but the EURO sniffed something earlier today...not sure what though....


edit- to add that Tampico was part of my cone to LA......

[MiamiensisWx]

Hardiness of old (pre-'70s/'80s structures) in south Florida

Bartlett Estate (also known as Bonnet House), Fort Lauderdale, Florida:

http://www.wegoplaces.com/User%20Interface/Images/Itinerary%20Item%20Images/59035.jpg

Note the plantation style layout with open balconies. This structure was specifically designed with the moderating sea breezes in mind; keep in mind that this structure was completed in the (pre-A/C) year of 1926. The open balconies and ground floors could reduce obstacle flow, and the concrete utilized for the support and walls adds significant strength to the building. A wide variety of additional materials were incorporated, including real south FL Taxodium (bald cypress) wood, oolitic limestone for the front "fish" arch, etc. The 1926 Miami hurricane produced maximum sustained winds as high as Category 2 intensity (85 kt/100 mph) in streaks across the Hollywood/Fort Lauderdale area; the majority of the region received Category 1 winds that were comparable to Wilma's winds (or slightly stronger) in the area, though Wilma did produce localized 85 kt (Cat 2) winds in portions of Broward County as well. The Bartlett Estate was slightly farther north than the localized Category 2 streaks to the south and west, but it likely received solid Category 1 winds. It is significant that the sole damage to the main structure was roofing damage. Later, this was the case in Katrina and Wilma (2005). The structure ITSELF remained untouched in these three examples, as well as the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, which crossed the site in September.

The Barnacle, Coconut Grove, Miami, Florida:

http://www.floridastateparks.org/TheBarnacle/default.cfm

The Barnacle is a testament to the typical (sturdier) construction in the early days of south Florida. Dade County pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa; slash pine) was extensively utilized in the "heart" of this structure, which was completed in the 1890s. The duration and strength of slash pine wood is excellent, and it has been the standard for many south FL structures. Some photographs illustrate the slash pine beams that were utilized for portions of the interior and exterior. The 1926 hurricane passed directly over over the site, and the structure was exposed to the 14 foot storm surge and the TC's eyewall. The site received winds of at least solid Category 2 intensity (1-min) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale; although some boat houses were wrecked, the Barnacle itself remained intact. When Andrew produced winds near Category 2 intensity and passed immediately south of the site (with the eyewall narrowly missing it), the residence survived very well again. Another example of solid slash pine construction is the Stranahan House (see this site and site #2) in Fort Lauderdale, which has survived Category 1 winds in 1926, 2005, and a few additional seasons. Note that the Barnacle and Stranahan residences also exhibit a layout that minimizes obstacle flow to various degrees as well.

Many older residences in Key West also exemplify the strength of old growth Dade County/south FL slash pines:

http://keywestproperties.blogspot.com/2007/12/this-old-house.html

Deering Estate, Cutler, Florida:

http://www.deeringestate.com/

The main structure was partially composed of solid stucco, and it staunchly survived the northern eyewall of Hurricane Andrew (and the adjacent 15-16 foot storm surge) in 1992, although the grounds and interior of the structure received extensive damages. Water intrusion was an issue. More than eight years passed before the main structure was successfully opened to the public. The following photograph vividly demonstrates the solid construction of the main residence (center) after Andrew's passage. Note that the site was very close to Andrew's maximum Category 5 winds (1-min) along the immediate coastline between the Burger King Headquarters and Fender Point. Obviously, all regions around the eyewall (from South Miami to the south of Homestead/Florida City) were hit hard, and many areas received 1-min winds that solidly exceeded Category 2 intensity and crept into major hurricane status (Cat 3/4 inland).

http://criticalmiami.com/photos/2008/deering/02.jpg

I believe the Kampong (see site) survived as well, though structural damage to the main building was more significant in this case, if I recall correctly.

In conclusion, several common features of the aforementioned pre-'70s/'80s structures include "hip" roofs (in several cases), open balconies/ground floors (in several cases) with less obstacle flow, durable/strong materials (such as stucco, south FL slash pine wood, etc.), and other facets. The majority of the structures were designed with the hazards of tropical cyclones in mind. Overall, these structures (in addition to post-Andrew buildings) are much more "equipped" to stand against hurricane force winds (1-min) with less structural damage.

[Chigger_Lopez]

jinftl, Dont forget the angle this is progged to make landfall, that eyewall will be raking most of Palm Beach and Broward on its way north as a Cat 3 or 4? and perhaps just keep moving north thru the treasure coast and who knows. I think this scenario would make the damage from Wilma look simple. But it is subject to change.

[Stormcenter]

This sounds completely weird, and has never happened in the history of Western Civilization to my knowledge, but if Ike is as far South as Cuba, and misses the weakness passing by, if you ignore the dip in the 588 dm height line caused by where the 18Z GFS sees Ike, and draw it parallel to the others to its North, then, while the Westerlies would,, of course, protect SE Texas, Ike could cruise West or even West-Southwest towards Mexico. This is pure conjecture, thrown out to stimulate discussion. I wouldn't actually be at all nervous if I lived in Tampico.

0z rolling in Ed......I would wait for more guidance.....but the EURO sniffed something earlier today...not sure what though....


edit- to add that Tampico was part of my cone to LA......

If you include Tampico to LA. then you might as well include the Pacific coastline.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This sounds completely weird, and has never happened in the history of Western Civilization to my knowledge, but if Ike is as far South as Cuba, and misses the weakness passing by, if you ignore the dip in the 588 dm height line caused by where the 18Z GFS sees Ike, and draw it parallel to the others to its North, then, while the Westerlies would,, of course, protect SE Texas, Ike could cruise West or even West-Southwest towards Mexico. This is pure conjecture, thrown out to stimulate discussion. I wouldn't actually be at all nervous if I lived in Tampico.

0z rolling in Ed......I would wait for more guidance.....but the EURO sniffed something earlier today...not sure what though....

I'm no so much following the model positions on Ike as the 500 mb pattern. Hence, I didn't post in the models thread. BTW, the 18Z ensembles at 126 to 168 hours in pretty fair agreement, but, of course, they are just the GFS with tweaked initial conditions.

I'll also be interested tomorrow in looking at Canadian ensembles. Canadian bites for tropical genesis, but it is usually pretty decent with 500 mb, in my experience -removed- snow and ice on weekdays (no school, no work, play with kids) for SE Texas.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

It is noted that the 1926 Miami hurricane produced a water mark (documented water level) of 12.6 feet in the vicinity of the Bahia Mar Yacht Club, which is situated north of Port Everglades at the location indicated by Ixolib's satellite imagery. Breaking waves likely added significant height to a relatively minimal surge.

Wow. I can't imagine 12 feet of water at Bahia Mar. They have hundreds of million dollar yachts there that would do who knows what in that kind of sea and wind. I can't imagine it. I recall with Katrina several casino boats beached and crushed things. Now most yachts are smaller, but there are a LOT of them here. Fort Lauderdale is the yachting capital of world after all. And we're known as the Venice of the West from all the canals. Of course noone in there right mind would still have their yacht in the path of a cat4. All the captains I know are bugging out.

The las olas area isn't as vulnerable as it seems from above. Even at high tide those islands are 3-6 feet above the water in the intracoastal at their lowest point, and built with surge in mind either on stilts or with a lower level entry/garage and living quarters up higher. Those are just about all million dollar + homes on the islands.

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


nice ridge and though Ike is poorly shown here its heading towards Cuba......wasnt the GFS up the EC last run?

[jinftl]

If the 1926 Miami hurricane hit today, damage estimates are from $140 billion to $157 billion. Katrina caused $81 billion.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080222_hurricane.html

[thetruesms]

5day forecast point landfall in Miami

But its prudent to focus on the cone and not the line this far out.

I agree gator. The key is this part of the NHC discussion

"The track guidance is in two distinct branches...the GFS...NOGAPS...and UKMET show the
turn occurring over the Bahamas....while the HWRF...GFDL...and ECMWF take Ike over Cuba or The Straits of Florida. Until it become clear as to which one of these solutions will prevail, the official forecast remains between them...... "

so basically they are saying is that the track itself doesn't mean that the NHC thinks it will strike the Miami area, all it means is that they have 2 sets of models, and decided to just split the difference between them. If it becomes clear that this is going out to sea, then you'll probably see a dramatic shift to the right, or vice versa if the other models prevail...Basically the NHC doesn't know either where it's going to go at this point..... I bring this up because I'm sure there are people looking at the graphic thinking, "oh my god, the NHC has it going to the Miami area"....

YES!

This is very good point and I was about to post it.

I looked at the NHC track and "How close will it get" had 26/80 being just 43.1 miles from me and extrapolated 3 1/2 hours later had the center 25.8 miles from me!

However, I do not see any of the major models showing a landfall here, or near here!
They show a turn before the FL East Coast or a track down to Cuba and then up to the NW or NNW.

Point is that although the official track shows it here, it is a compromise right down the middle.

Think of golf ( I don't play but it seems like a good example):
If I hit it to the right it goes there ----->
If I hit it to the left it goes there <-----------

If I hit it straight it is right down the fairway.

The thing is I never seem to hit them straight!!!!!

We HAVE to watch this carefully, but I am A LOT MORE NERVOUS if I see models pointed at me and not the compromise down the middle....

Finally, while discussions of falling buildings, storm surges and exact landfall locations (I was born at a hospital on Johnson Street in Hollywood by the way) make for salacious conversation; it is WAY EARLY to have these conversations when the track is a COMPROMISE and is for 5 DAYS AWAY!!!!!!

Take a deep breath folks and save yourselves from getting into a frothy frenzy.....
Plenty of time for that later.

Being located between the two branches is still reason for concern. If one branch, for instance makes too much of a weakness in the ridge, while the other branch doesn't make enough of it, where do you land? Right in the vicinity of that compromise. It's certainly not a reason for panic, but it's nothing to make light of, either.

[MiamiensisWx]

YES!

This is very good point and I was about to post it.

I looked at the NHC track and "How close will it get" had 26/80 being just 43.1 miles from me and extrapolated 3 1/2 hours later had the center 25.8 miles from me!

However, I do not see any of the major models showing a landfall here, or near here!
They show a turn before the FL East Coast or a track down to Cuba and then up to the NW or NNW.

Point is that although the official track shows it here, it is a compromise right down the middle.

Think of golf ( I don't play but it seems like a good example):
If I hit it to the right it goes there ----->
If I hit it to the left it goes there <-----------

If I hit it straight it is right down the fairway.

The thing is I never seem to hit them straight!!!!!

We HAVE to watch this carefully, but I am A LOT MORE NERVOUS if I see models pointed at me and not the compromise down the middle....

Finally, while discussions of falling buildings, storm surges and exact landfall locations (I was born at a hospital on Johnson Street in Hollywood by the way) make for salacious conversation; it is WAY EARLY to have these conversations when the track is a COMPROMISE and is for 5 DAYS AWAY!!!!!!

Take a deep breath folks and save yourselves from getting into a frothy frenzy.....
Plenty of time for that later.

I completely concur on several facets, but it is notable that the consensus has trended west today. Latest operational GFS is significantly farther west in tandem with the Euro as well:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_096l.gif

However, I'm certainly not nervous; I'm merely alert, prepared, and mindful that the track could be offshore as well.

Bahamians and Turks and Caicos residents SHOULD certainly be concerned...

I've compiled a detailed analysis on another site...

[CrazyC83]

This sounds completely weird, and has never happened in the history of Western Civilization to my knowledge, but if Ike is as far South as Cuba, and misses the weakness passing by, if you ignore the dip in the 588 dm height line caused by where the 18Z GFS sees Ike, and draw it parallel to the others to its North, then, while the Westerlies would,, of course, protect SE Texas, Ike could cruise West or even West-Southwest towards Mexico. This is pure conjecture, thrown out to stimulate discussion. I wouldn't actually be at all nervous if I lived in Tampico.

Didn't Inez do that in 1966? (A weird storm - bombed to Cat 4/5 in the east Caribbean, weakened to a tropical storm over Cuba, hit Florida as a Cat 1 then sailed to Texas as a Cat 4)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Inez- didn't hit Texas. But otherwise, imagine all the people in Florida thinking "whoo, we dodged a bullet" and then, wham!

[thetruesms]

Inez- didn't hit Texas. But otherwise, imagine all the people in Florida thinking "whoo, we dodged a bullet" and then, wham!

Beaten to the punch on the track. Another thing is that Inez also approached Cuba on a more traditional trajectory, rather than how Ike would have to do it, so there's still some "weirdness" that Inez didn't show.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

Really flaring convection tonight.

[Bgator]

The 00z GFS would bring storm conditions to S FLA for about 20 hours. As it lingers once it hits S FLA.

[AtlanticWind]

The 00z GFS would bring storm conditions to S FLA for about 20 hours. As it lingers once it hits S FLA.

That would not be good

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

Really flaring convection tonight.

Hes moving slightly south of west now.....well it is almost Friday where I live...

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 00z GFS would bring storm conditions to S FLA for about 20 hours. As it lingers once it hits S FLA.

That would not be good

Looks like Fay, except coming from a different direction, and probably a major when it gets there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

Reds are wraping around the clear eye. I would say that after a short weaking, it is back to around 120-125 knots now. Lets see how it stands up to the shear.

I also believe the models will shift south...I expect the storm to curve northward about 200 miles to the west of where the nhc is showing. We will see.