ATL: IKE Discussion

[shah8]

I think my biggest concern will be windfield. Will we ever see Ike pork out or will he be small? Charley for all the bad news he was for one small part of town, affected a pretty small area for the most part. Dennis is underrated because he was a small storm that hit in a relatively unpopulated area. Ike, on this path would probably be as notorious as Andrew if the strength holds, but if it's both size and strength, then we have a whole new ballgame, and the emergency services will have many of the same problems getting to problem spots as they did with Katrina...

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS would have it miss first weakness, and hence stall over Florida. If it were farther South, might go on West as speculated. If it is where GFS suggests, if the next trough that does start to move it digs, and it looks like it might be starting to take a bit of a negative tilt, instead of out to sea, maybe over the Gulf Stream and onward to points North. Just speculating.

[fci]

I agree gator. The key is this part of the NHC discussion

"The track guidance is in two distinct branches...the GFS...NOGAPS...and UKMET show the
turn occurring over the Bahamas....while the HWRF...GFDL...and ECMWF take Ike over Cuba or The Straits of Florida. Until it become clear as to which one of these solutions will prevail, the official forecast remains between them...... "

so basically they are saying is that the track itself doesn't mean that the NHC thinks it will strike the Miami area, all it means is that they have 2 sets of models, and decided to just split the difference between them. If it becomes clear that this is going out to sea, then you'll probably see a dramatic shift to the right, or vice versa if the other models prevail...Basically the NHC doesn't know either where it's going to go at this point..... I bring this up because I'm sure there are people looking at the graphic thinking, "oh my god, the NHC has it going to the Miami area"....

YES!

This is very good point and I was about to post it.

I looked at the NHC track and "How close will it get" had 26/80 being just 43.1 miles from me and extrapolated 3 1/2 hours later had the center 25.8 miles from me!

However, I do not see any of the major models showing a landfall here, or near here!
They show a turn before the FL East Coast or a track down to Cuba and then up to the NW or NNW.

Point is that although the official track shows it here, it is a compromise right down the middle.

Think of golf ( I don't play but it seems like a good example):
If I hit it to the right it goes there ----->
If I hit it to the left it goes there <-----------

If I hit it straight it is right down the fairway.

The thing is I never seem to hit them straight!!!!!

We HAVE to watch this carefully, but I am A LOT MORE NERVOUS if I see models pointed at me and not the compromise down the middle....

Finally, while discussions of falling buildings, storm surges and exact landfall locations (I was born at a hospital on Johnson Street in Hollywood by the way) make for salacious conversation; it is WAY EARLY to have these conversations when the track is a COMPROMISE and is for 5 DAYS AWAY!!!!!!

Take a deep breath folks and save yourselves from getting into a frothy frenzy.....
Plenty of time for that later.

Being located between the two branches is still reason for concern. If one branch, for instance makes too much of a weakness in the ridge, while the other branch doesn't make enough of it, where do you land? Right in the vicinity of that compromise. It's certainly not a reason for panic, but it's nothing to make light of, either.

I am not minimizing the cause for concern.
Being in the middle is not fun and not something we are used to either.
No way was I making "light" of it but trying to put it into perspective.

However, if you simply look at the NHC track, you can't help but freak out and proclaim that "They have it coming right over us!"
This is really not the case as exemplified by the discussion's explanation of the official track being in the middle.

[Wx_Warrior]

Eddie...break that down in to layman's terms....

Ike, being a strong storm, isn't going to waste anytime finding that first weakness.

[Sanibel]

A lot of the track differences are probably being driven by differences in the estimation of current strength between various models. Ike is under significant northerly shear, so the stronger he is the more he goes south (in opposition to the usual rules). The models on the north track have Ike fairly weak - generally weaker than Hanna, even, while the south models have Ike mighty. Well, Ike *is* mighty, right now, so I think the south cluster is more accurate. If Ike gets suffocated by shear in the near future then the NHC consensus track might be pretty fair, putting SFL in the crosshairs. But if the shear doesn't clobber Ike, I would expect a track even further south than that, with a Straits passage or even the Greater Antilles strikes several models are suggesting. I do think the South models probably overestimate Ike (they're all prone to overstrengthening) so I expect it will pass N of the Antilles except perhaps the more northerly parts of Cuba.

Exactly. Seems obvious to me.

[Cyclenall]

I still don't see a reason why the intensity was held at 115 knots. "OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE" - is this enough to cause a 10 knot difference in strength? Recon can't get here fast enough! I also believe it will not weaken below 105 knots. They are mainly relying on computers again. The latest image now shows on AVN reds wrapping around the entire eye with blacks appearing. Not a sign of a struggling system.

[Sanibel]

Current cold top burst combined with tumbling, contracting eye suggests intensification.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I still don't see a reason why the intensity was held at 115 knots. "OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE" - is this enough to cause a 10 knot difference in strength? Recon can't get here fast enough! I also believe it will not weaken below 105 knots. They are mainly relying on computers again. The latest image now shows on AVN reds wrapping around the entire eye with blacks appearing. Not a sign of a struggling system.

I strongly believe it is back to around 120 knots. This thing is getting some northly shear, in which is keeping the convection from expanding on the north side, but it is holding its own. Looks to be going around 265 degree's.

[AtlanticWind]

I still don't see a reason why the intensity was held at 115 knots. "OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE" - is this enough to cause a 10 knot difference in strength? Recon can't get here fast enough! I also believe it will not weaken below 105 knots. They are mainly relying on computers again. The latest image now shows on AVN reds wrapping around the entire eye with blacks appearing. Not a sign of a struggling system.

I strongly believe it is back to around 120 knots. This thing is getting some northly shear, in which is keeping the convection from expanding on the north side, but it is holding its own. Looks to be going around 265 degree's.

Where can you get Sat pics during the blackout?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I still don't see a reason why the intensity was held at 115 knots. "OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE" - is this enough to cause a 10 knot difference in strength? Recon can't get here fast enough! I also believe it will not weaken below 105 knots. They are mainly relying on computers again. The latest image now shows on AVN reds wrapping around the entire eye with blacks appearing. Not a sign of a struggling system.

I strongly believe it is back to around 120 knots. This thing is getting some northly shear, in which is keeping the convection from expanding on the north side, but it is holding its own. Looks to be going around 265 degree's.

Where can you get Sat pics during the blackout?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... r/geo/1km/

[AtlanticWind]

Thanks

[thetruesms]

I am not minimizing the cause for concern.
Being in the middle is not fun and not something we are used to either.
No way was I making "light" of it but trying to put it into perspective.

However, if you simply look at the NHC track, you can't help but freak out and proclaim that "They have it coming right over us!"
This is really not the case as exemplified by the discussion's explanation of the official track being in the middle.

Fair enough - it just seemed that you were saying that NHC arbitrarily plopped the track to go through South Florida, and I wanted to point out that there is physical reasoning behind choosing a compromise track between two divergent scenarios.

[fci]

I am not minimizing the cause for concern.
Being in the middle is not fun and not something we are used to either.
No way was I making "light" of it but trying to put it into perspective.

However, if you simply look at the NHC track, you can't help but freak out and proclaim that "They have it coming right over us!"
This is really not the case as exemplified by the discussion's explanation of the official track being in the middle.

Fair enough - it just seemed that you were saying that NHC arbitrarily plopped the track to go through South Florida, and I wanted to point out that there is physical reasoning behind choosing a compromise track between two divergent scenarios.

Yeah, not sure what other option they had.
If they go to the either of the two extremes they understate the possibility of the other solution so they go down the middle.

I think you and I are in agreement here of the situation

[Windy]

Where can you get Sat pics during the blackout?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/ir/geo/1km/

Wait, is the Navy using a different bird? The blackout (eclipse) is due to the GOES satellite itself. Any satellite nearby would experience similar issues.

[superdeluxe]

Beaten to the punch on the track. Another thing is that Inez also approached Cuba on a more traditional trajectory, rather than how Ike would have to do it, so there's still some "weirdness" that Inez didn't show.

[Just Joshing You]

It definitely looks like Ike is strengthening.

[Tertius]

Satellite out of eclipse now, Ike is looking a bit more ragged. Eye has filled in a bit. Clearly feeling the shear, but maintaining a pretty solid structure nonetheless.

[SapphireSea]

Still seems to be wobbling a little N of pure west. It seems to meet up with the forcast points just right, maybe 1/2 on and 1/2 north of them. Should start wobbling South for the forcast to verify, otherwise we can effectively discount the model consensus that has it dipping, of course this has 24 hours to change.

[gtsmith]

delete...my text went missing

[Meso]

Eye cleared out again, looks really small.Even more so than before.

While shear may be having a slight impact he looks pretty damn good. He actually looked worse at some time yesterday with a teardrop shape. With no outflow on the northern or western side, which actually appears to be slightly better now. Though convection isn't as deep around the eye as earlier he is still looking good to me