Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Better consensus and looks tighter in the longer term.

But all the models have it moving atleast a little north right from the start which based on the NHC and Recon fixes we know not to be true since its currently moving due west so can any of these runs really be trusted yet?

[cycloneye]

Moving 270 degrees.

WHXX01 KWBC 170031
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0031 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080817 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080817 0000 080817 1200 080818 0000 080818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 75.7W 20.4N 78.3W 21.3N 80.3W 22.4N 82.0W
BAMD 19.3N 75.7W 20.0N 77.6W 21.0N 79.5W 22.1N 81.3W
BAMM 19.3N 75.7W 20.2N 77.9W 21.3N 79.7W 22.4N 81.3W
LBAR 19.3N 75.7W 19.9N 78.1W 20.8N 80.3W 22.1N 82.2W
SHIP 40KTS 44KTS 50KTS 56KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080819 0000 080820 0000 080821 0000 080822 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 83.0W 26.4N 84.3W 29.4N 84.3W 32.9N 82.9W
BAMD 23.1N 82.9W 25.3N 85.5W 28.9N 87.1W 34.5N 86.8W
BAMM 23.7N 82.5W 26.8N 83.9W 30.3N 83.8W 34.4N 82.1W
LBAR 23.6N 83.4W 27.7N 84.0W 31.0N 83.1W 33.6N 80.9W
SHIP 63KTS 71KTS 73KTS 68KTS
DSHP 46KTS 43KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 75.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 72.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 18.6N LONM24 = 70.2W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Well its moving a little bit south of the models BUT its such a short term deviation it probably doesn't mean all that, if its still decently south of the model guidence in about 18hrs then there will likely be shifts westwards but right now I think the models have a good idea of the general synoptic set-up its just a case of watching and seeing what happens.

[jlauderdal]

18 Z Nogaps,,aint budging..shesh

the navy model has benn good so far and consistent, this i looking like a panhandle system to me, key west running up 82 west to thae redneck riveria, strong inflow on the right side, look for the whole peninsula to get a tornado watch late monday and a very intense system making landfall tuesday as 3

[artist]

interesting radar to say the least

[Dean4Storms]

interesting radar to say the least

That looks like Clutter on that radar loop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, there is a big area of clutter. It has been on that radar all day.

[Vortex]

Becoming much better organized..convection pulsing right over the center and very nice outflow continues..She's also giving indications on radar of a slower movement..I know think this has a good shot at becoming a hurricane prior to landfall on cuba.

[Vortex]

00:45 utc convection exploding right over center..here we go...

[Scorpion]

Becoming much better organized..convection pulsing right over the center and very nice outflow continues..She's also giving indications on radar of a slower movement..I know think this has a good shot at becoming a hurricane prior to landfall on cuba.

If it keeps on this heading then a Cat 2 sounds very reasonable.

[vacanechaser]

But all the models have it moving atleast a little north right from the start which based on the NHC and Recon fixes we know not to be true since its currently moving due west so can any of these runs really be trusted yet?

remember that the first forecast point in the models is about 12 hours out... thats why they dont match up right now... i know the gfs is at 6 hours... so just consider that... that turn could take place at anytime between now and the 12 hours...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Nimbus]

looking at the water vapor loop I see an ULL near the four corners area that should logically define the western edge of a ridge. The ridge looks like it is building east through LA towards Florida.

The current trough running out off the east coast seems to have stopped digging south? I'm not sure where the steering trough that is supposed to dig is going to come from in 36 hours?

Anyone else see the chance for ridging to reestablish itself north of Florida earlier than expected?

[Vortex]

radar and satellite images indicating a definite slowdown and a more north of west or wnw motion..

[ronjon]

Fay is still a very large (area wise) storm. These big ones tend to take a lot longer to intensify. For that reason plus land interaction or proximity to land I would not expect RI south of Cuba - but then again intensity is hard to forecast. I think by the time it's in the SE GOM it may be pulled together enough at that point for the potential for RI. On the track, if there will be any future shifts I think they may be westward because the last 18Z GFS indicated a stronger western Atlantic ridge above 27N. As we get more upper air sampling into the models, we may find that they underestimated the building ridge. As far as P'cola, I doubt it but maybe FL big bend.

[Vortex]

very interesting water vapor is indicating what appears to be a devleping ULL just south of western cuba..GFS had inticated this nicely a few days ago..

[Rainband]

ronjon don't say that that would be really bad for tampabay and the nature coast

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC SHIP shear forecast shows not a prohibitive shear enviroment thru the forecast period.

Code: Select all

        *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *         FAY  AL062008  08/17/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    42    44    48    50    56    63    68    71    71    73    70    68
V (KT) LAND       40    42    43    46    48    39    46    51    43    34    29    28    27
V (KT) LGE mod    40    41    41    43    45    37    43    49    43    34    29    27    27

SHEAR (KTS)       12    12    10     5     9     9     9    12     9    11    13    13    12
SHEAR DIR        289   296   286   225   225   256   316   328   296   295   277   264   247
SST (C)         29.1  29.2  29.5  29.6  29.7  29.8  29.8  29.9  29.5  28.8  28.1  27.4  27.0
POT. INT. (KT)   154   155   161   162   164   165   165   167   160   147   137   128   123
ADJ. POT. INT.   147   147   152   152   152   150   148   148   139   125   115   109   103
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C)      13    13    12    13    12    11    11     9     9     7     8     5     6
700-500 MB RH     56    53    57    59    60    60    61    64    66    67    67    72    72
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    12    13    13    11    12    13    13    13    11    11     9     9
850 MB ENV VOR    31     7   -10    -5    -8   -13   -28   -23   -36   -34   -35   -34   -25
200 MB DIV        10    -8   -14    14     4   -29    16    -2    31    22    38    23    36
LAND (KM)         58    15    38    49    40   -44   100    50   -11   -44   -79  -100  -214
LAT (DEG N)     19.3  19.7  20.1  20.7  21.3  22.6  24.1  25.8  27.6  29.2  30.3  31.9  33.6
LONG(DEG W)     75.7  76.8  77.9  78.9  79.8  81.0  81.7  82.2  82.4  82.4  82.2  82.2  82.4
STM SPEED (KT)    12    11    11    11    10     8     8     9     9     7     7     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      88    83    78    45     8  9999    93     7     1  9999  9999  9999  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13      CX,CY: -12/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  667  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  25.1 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  61.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   8.  13.  17.  20.  22.  23.  23.  22.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   1.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  10.  10.  10.  10.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   4.   8.  10.  16.  23.  29.  32.  33.  35.  32.  30.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   4.   8.  10.  16.  23.  28.  31.  31.  33.  30.  28.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008        FAY 08/17/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.6 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   1.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 110.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  70.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  20.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  60.4 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    20% is   1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    12% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008        FAY 08/17/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             


[artist]

very interesting water vapor is indicating what appears to be a devleping ULL just south of western cuba..GFS had inticated this nicely a few days ago..

wouuld that change anything vortex?

[physicx07]

I agree, ronjon. I think it's going to be most important for intensity to see what Fay looks like as it emerges from Cuba. First, to see how much disruption in organization there is. And then to see how large (area wise) the storm is. I always hearken back to Charley when thinking about this scenario. I feel like whatever it's doing now is only moderately important eventually for the U.S. when thinking about landfall intensity. I think I'll have a better idea of what it might do intensity-wise as it comes off Cuba.

Fay is still a very large (area wise) storm. These big ones tend to take a lot longer to intensify. For that reason plus land interaction or proximity to land I would not expect RI south of Cuba - but then again intensity is hard to forecast. I think by the time it's in the SE GOM it may be pulled together enough at that point for the potential for RI. On the track, if there will be any future shifts I think they may be westward because the last 18Z GFS indicated a stronger western Atlantic ridge above 27N. As we get more upper air sampling into the models, we may find that they underestimated the building ridge. As far as P'cola, I doubt it but maybe FL big bend.

[ronjon]

ronjon don't say that that would be really bad for tampabay and the nature coast

Yes rainband I agree. If it happens, our family will likely have to head inland (i'm right on the GOM). I think it stinks big time but I'm hoping it either heads way west (100 miles) or comes inland south of us. Right now the latest guidance is trending west - maybe it'll swing back east tomorrow. One can hope.